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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - I try to understand and apply the lessons WB imparts.
I apply his teachings to my picks. Yes, I have made mistakes [KQ, Olympia]. I will still make mistakes but overall since I started taking a deeper look into what I buy, I think I have done OK. The #1 lesson - only invest if you TRUST the Management to do the right thing. [Yes, even then one can be fooled]
KenolKobil - I trust Ohana. I like the business and potential [more vehicles].
Unga - I trust Hutchinson. I like the business [we have to eat] and potential [as we urbanize]. Cheap.
I&M - I trust the Shahs [significant owners] & CDC [new shareholders so they must have done their DD]. Potential is not as good as Equity but it's good not superlative.
Kenya Re - I trust Mwarania but if there are changes I do not like I will bail. I like the business and potential [more insurance needs as the economy grows].
Smaller Positions:
TPSEA - I trust Janmohammed and AKFED. Tough sector. Low P/B thus attractive.
Williamson/Kapchorua - I trust Carmichael and who is closely watched by Magor [the largest shareholder]. He runs the firm for the long-term.
C&G - I trust Gidoomal [largest shareholder as a family]. Tough sector. High potential.
Equity - I trust Mwangi. He is SMART. I missed the boat in getting in at the bottom because I thought the interest cap would hit them (& KCB) the hardest. Mwangi found a way around it. Huge potential. I will add when there are dips.
Some of the "smaller" positions are historical positions. I will probably add to TPSEA and Equity, as cash is available, to move them into "Core Holdings" over time.
For all practical purposes... The NSE could shut down for 10 years and I would be a-OK with my holdings. Our style is quite similar. I've been burned by bad management too on KQ, and escaped from Mumias narrowly. The lessons I learnt are what is responsible for my gains now. I learnt the lessons and I changed. Management,management, management. People see KQ rallying for one week and wanna buy it, but not me. Infact I have written of investing In any gov firm. We all know how they are run. To me even the whiff of a doubt about management is enough for me to bail. I bailed hfck, not because of hfck itself but association with britam. Ask yourself if Kenya Re falls in the group you described. I feel like mlennyma, you and I should have a group hug. We have surely kept the faith. When we say 20 is a target in 2 years it sounded crazy to most people, but now people can believe. 14 is a pleasant surprise but I expect even more after elections. Vindication +++ Very good read for everyone... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:10% rule now can't allow more than 14.30,iam still waiting for news may be or this is just good luck,who thought kk can gain 10% in a day and people refuse to take it? It is very surprising. But remember this share never used to rally on any good news for years. Let it do it's thing The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:10% rule now can't allow more than 14.30,iam still waiting for news may be or this is just good luck,who thought kk can gain 10% in a day and people refuse to take it? It is very surprising. But remember this share never used to rally on any good news for years. Let it do it's thing Profit takers expected from tomorrow "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:10% rule now can't allow more than 14.30,iam still waiting for news may be or this is just good luck,who thought kk can gain 10% in a day and people refuse to take it? It is very surprising. But remember this share never used to rally on any good news for years. Let it do it's thing Profit takers expected from tomorrow jump out at your own risk,closing at 14.05,The last time these prices printed was back in 2012.my forecast is at 21.0,.......FT puts it at 17.90  host imageNo diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - I try to understand and apply the lessons WB imparts.
I apply his teachings to my picks. Yes, I have made mistakes [KQ, Olympia]. I will still make mistakes but overall since I started taking a deeper look into what I buy, I think I have done OK. The #1 lesson - only invest if you TRUST the Management to do the right thing. [Yes, even then one can be fooled]
KenolKobil - I trust Ohana. I like the business and potential [more vehicles].
Unga - I trust Hutchinson. I like the business [we have to eat] and potential [as we urbanize]. Cheap.
I&M - I trust the Shahs [significant owners] & CDC [new shareholders so they must have done their DD]. Potential is not as good as Equity but it's good not superlative.
Kenya Re - I trust Mwarania but if there are changes I do not like I will bail. I like the business and potential [more insurance needs as the economy grows].
Smaller Positions:
TPSEA - I trust Janmohammed and AKFED. Tough sector. Low P/B thus attractive.
Williamson/Kapchorua - I trust Carmichael and who is closely watched by Magor [the largest shareholder]. He runs the firm for the long-term.
C&G - I trust Gidoomal [largest shareholder as a family]. Tough sector. High potential.
Equity - I trust Mwangi. He is SMART. I missed the boat in getting in at the bottom because I thought the interest cap would hit them (& KCB) the hardest. Mwangi found a way around it. Huge potential. I will add when there are dips.
Some of the "smaller" positions are historical positions. I will probably add to TPSEA and Equity, as cash is available, to move them into "Core Holdings" over time.
For all practical purposes... The NSE could shut down for 10 years and I would be a-OK with my holdings. Our style is quite similar. I've been burned by bad management too on KQ, and escaped from Mumias narrowly. The lessons I learnt are what is responsible for my gains now. I learnt the lessons and I changed. Management,management, management. People see KQ rallying for one week and wanna buy it, but not me. Infact I have written of investing In any gov firm. We all know how they are run. To me even the whiff of a doubt about management is enough for me to bail. I bailed hfck, not because of hfck itself but association with britam. Ask yourself if Kenya Re falls in the group you described. I feel like mlennyma, you and I should have a group hug. We have surely kept the faith. When we say 20 is a target in 2 years it sounded crazy to most people, but now people can believe. 14 is a pleasant surprise but I expect even more after elections. Vindication +++ @AGuy - Are you sure you aren't the other 1/2 of my brain that switches on when I am sleeping? On KenRe - I like reinsurance [just as WB does] as long as it is profitable. In the Kenyan context, it may be harder [not impossible] to steal from KenRe's business vs other GoK entities. Basically, if I feel "queasy" [as you did with HFCK] I will bail out. KenRe is building a new office building and that does concern me though the overall portfolio is heavily invested in GoK paper. @Miennyama @Aguy @VVS - Group Hug!  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@Aguy - I try to understand and apply the lessons WB imparts.
I apply his teachings to my picks. Yes, I have made mistakes [KQ, Olympia]. I will still make mistakes but overall since I started taking a deeper look into what I buy, I think I have done OK. The #1 lesson - only invest if you TRUST the Management to do the right thing. [Yes, even then one can be fooled]
KenolKobil - I trust Ohana. I like the business and potential [more vehicles].
Unga - I trust Hutchinson. I like the business [we have to eat] and potential [as we urbanize]. Cheap.
I&M - I trust the Shahs [significant owners] & CDC [new shareholders so they must have done their DD]. Potential is not as good as Equity but it's good not superlative.
Kenya Re - I trust Mwarania but if there are changes I do not like I will bail. I like the business and potential [more insurance needs as the economy grows].
Smaller Positions:
TPSEA - I trust Janmohammed and AKFED. Tough sector. Low P/B thus attractive.
Williamson/Kapchorua - I trust Carmichael and who is closely watched by Magor [the largest shareholder]. He runs the firm for the long-term.
C&G - I trust Gidoomal [largest shareholder as a family]. Tough sector. High potential.
Equity - I trust Mwangi. He is SMART. I missed the boat in getting in at the bottom because I thought the interest cap would hit them (& KCB) the hardest. Mwangi found a way around it. Huge potential. I will add when there are dips.
Some of the "smaller" positions are historical positions. I will probably add to TPSEA and Equity, as cash is available, to move them into "Core Holdings" over time.
For all practical purposes... The NSE could shut down for 10 years and I would be a-OK with my holdings. Our style is quite similar. I've been burned by bad management too on KQ, and escaped from Mumias narrowly. The lessons I learnt are what is responsible for my gains now. I learnt the lessons and I changed. Management,management, management. People see KQ rallying for one week and wanna buy it, but not me. Infact I have written of investing In any gov firm. We all know how they are run. To me even the whiff of a doubt about management is enough for me to bail. I bailed hfck, not because of hfck itself but association with britam. Ask yourself if Kenya Re falls in the group you described. I feel like mlennyma, you and I should have a group hug. We have surely kept the faith. When we say 20 is a target in 2 years it sounded crazy to most people, but now people can believe. 14 is a pleasant surprise but I expect even more after elections. Vindication +++ @AGuy - Are you sure you aren't the other 1/2 of my brain that switches on when I am sleeping? On KenRe - I like reinsurance [just as WB does] as long as it is profitable. In the Kenyan context, it may be harder [not impossible] to steal from KenRe's business vs other GoK entities. Basically, if I feel "queasy" [as you did with HFCK] I will bail out. KenRe is building a new office building and that does concern me though the overall portfolio is heavily invested in GoK paper. @Miennyama @Aguy @VVS - Group Hug! Its the Benjamin Graham way. group hug indeed. happy hunting The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/16/2006 Posts: 234
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Kenol at 14 with very huge volume. “I don’t regret the things I’ve done, I regret the things I didn’t do when I had the chance.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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A major announcement is on the way probably tomorrow afternoon
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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DO is on roadshows in Europe and SA past two weeks.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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FUNKY wrote:A major announcement is on the way probably tomorrow afternoon fact or fiction? we operate over 420 petrol stations across africa.together with dealing with other fuel related products so iam sure we are not worth 14bob but more  "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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