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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Angelica _ann
#1091 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 7:10:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
VituVingiSana wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
uchumi wrote:
i think with all the positive statement coming in Puma energy might re think coming back after cancelling the first accusation in 2012.it is a share to watch.

the cow has plenty of milk,and not for sale.

Not at this price! Applause Applause Applause

Give it to you guys..... Your patience on this share at 8-9 bob was great. You believed in its turnaround. smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
VituVingiSana
#1092 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 9:01:11 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
While many focus on the share price, I want to focus on the "intrinsic" value. There is no universal calculation for intrinsic value.

The ship has sailed for me to pick up more shares at 12 (or lower) but I can't complain as I have been buying KK for a while. The impetus to buy KK was bolstered by the "Post-AGM Discussion" in April 2016.

Bottomline: I expect 3bn in PAT [after adding back the KPRL provisions] for 2016. The stage for a strong 2017 has been set. Of course, the usual caveats apply eg no PEV, ceteris paribus, etc.

I expect the EPS to be 3/- for FY 2018 [2 years from now] and price to be 18-20 by Dec 2018.

* Higher volumes = lower Fixed costs/ liter = higher profit per/ liter
* KK is back into OTS cargoes. Lower margins, high volumes = Profits
* Expansion in Kenya [as economy & vehicle numbers grow] will pay off
* KK is pushing LPG and sales should grow in double digits
* Lubricants blending plant in 2018
* Debt used as Working Capital and not expansion
* The level of debt:turnover has reduced
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#1093 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 10:25:21 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
While many focus on the share price, I want to focus on the "intrinsic" value. There is no universal calculation for intrinsic value.

The ship has sailed for me to pick up more shares at 12 (or lower) but I can't complain as I have been buying KK for a while. The impetus to buy KK was bolstered by the "Post-AGM Discussion" in April 2016.

Bottomline: I expect 3bn in PAT [after adding back the KPRL provisions] for 2016. The stage for a strong 2017 has been set. Of course, the usual caveats apply eg no PEV, ceteris paribus, etc.

I expect the EPS to be 3/- for FY 2018 [2 years from now] and price to be 18-20 by Dec 2018.

* Higher volumes = lower Fixed costs/ liter = higher profit per/ liter
* KK is back into OTS cargoes. Lower margins, high volumes = Profits
* Expansion in Kenya [as economy & vehicle numbers grow] will pay off
* KK is pushing LPG and sales should grow in double digits
* Lubricants blending plant in 2018
* Debt used as Working Capital and not expansion
* The level of debt:turnover has reduced

18 -20 share price will come sooner than you expect
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mlennyma
#1094 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 11:15:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
I hope there is no hidden news 13.50,small supply at 14
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#1095 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 11:18:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
While many focus on the share price, I want to focus on the "intrinsic" value. There is no universal calculation for intrinsic value.

The ship has sailed for me to pick up more shares at 12 (or lower) but I can't complain as I have been buying KK for a while. The impetus to buy KK was bolstered by the "Post-AGM Discussion" in April 2016.

Bottomline: I expect 3bn in PAT [after adding back the KPRL provisions] for 2016. The stage for a strong 2017 has been set. Of course, the usual caveats apply eg no PEV, ceteris paribus, etc.

I expect the EPS to be 3/- for FY 2018 [2 years from now] and price to be 18-20 by Dec 2018.

* Higher volumes = lower Fixed costs/ liter = higher profit per/ liter
* KK is back into OTS cargoes. Lower margins, high volumes = Profits
* Expansion in Kenya [as economy & vehicle numbers grow] will pay off
* KK is pushing LPG and sales should grow in double digits
* Lubricants blending plant in 2018
* Debt used as Working Capital and not expansion
* The level of debt:turnover has reduced

18 -20 share price will come sooner than you expect


A buffet saying comes to mind. A company's performance is more important the share price will take care of itself.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Angelica _ann
#1096 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 11:38:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
What KK is doing is what Safaricom from around December 2012 at 5.5bob thereabout .... people expecting it to fall (retract) but continued marching smile
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
VituVingiSana
#1097 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 12:32:38 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@Aguy - I try to understand and apply the lessons WB imparts.

I apply his teachings to my picks. Yes, I have made mistakes [KQ, Olympia]. I will still make mistakes but overall since I started taking a deeper look into what I buy, I think I have done OK. The #1 lesson - only invest if you TRUST the Management to do the right thing. [Yes, even then one can be fooled]

KenolKobil - I trust Ohana. I like the business and potential [more vehicles].
Unga - I trust Hutchinson. I like the business [we have to eat] and potential [as we urbanize]. Cheap.
I&M - I trust the Shahs [significant owners] & CDC [new shareholders so they must have done their DD]. Potential is not as good as Equity but it's good not superlative.
Kenya Re - I trust Mwarania but if there are changes I do not like I will bail. I like the business and potential [more insurance needs as the economy grows].

Smaller Positions:
TPSEA - I trust Janmohammed and AKFED. Tough sector. Low P/B thus attractive.
Williamson/Kapchorua - I trust Carmichael and who is closely watched by Magor [the largest shareholder]. He runs the firm for the long-term.
C&G - I trust Gidoomal [largest shareholder as a family]. Tough sector. High potential.
Equity - I trust Mwangi. He is SMART. I missed the boat in getting in at the bottom because I thought the interest cap would hit them (& KCB) the hardest. Mwangi found a way around it. Huge potential. I will add when there are dips.

Some of the "smaller" positions are historical positions. I will probably add to TPSEA and Equity, as cash is available, to move them into "Core Holdings" over time.

For all practical purposes... The NSE could shut down for 10 years and I would be a-OK with my holdings.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#1098 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 2:16:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
14 crushed,sellers must wake-up now,especially because the whole market is largely red,last supply at 14.30 taken and supply dries something I haven't seen for 5 years as at 2.15pm
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#1099 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 2:43:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Aguy - I try to understand and apply the lessons WB imparts.

I apply his teachings to my picks. Yes, I have made mistakes [KQ, Olympia]. I will still make mistakes but overall since I started taking a deeper look into what I buy, I think I have done OK. The #1 lesson - only invest if you TRUST the Management to do the right thing. [Yes, even then one can be fooled]

KenolKobil - I trust Ohana. I like the business and potential [more vehicles].
Unga - I trust Hutchinson. I like the business [we have to eat] and potential [as we urbanize]. Cheap.
I&M - I trust the Shahs [significant owners] & CDC [new shareholders so they must have done their DD]. Potential is not as good as Equity but it's good not superlative.
Kenya Re - I trust Mwarania but if there are changes I do not like I will bail. I like the business and potential [more insurance needs as the economy grows].

Smaller Positions:
TPSEA - I trust Janmohammed and AKFED. Tough sector. Low P/B thus attractive.
Williamson/Kapchorua - I trust Carmichael and who is closely watched by Magor [the largest shareholder]. He runs the firm for the long-term.
C&G - I trust Gidoomal [largest shareholder as a family]. Tough sector. High potential.
Equity - I trust Mwangi. He is SMART. I missed the boat in getting in at the bottom because I thought the interest cap would hit them (& KCB) the hardest. Mwangi found a way around it. Huge potential. I will add when there are dips.

Some of the "smaller" positions are historical positions. I will probably add to TPSEA and Equity, as cash is available, to move them into "Core Holdings" over time.

For all practical purposes... The NSE could shut down for 10 years and I would be a-OK with my holdings.



Our style is quite similar. I've been burned by bad management too on KQ, and escaped from Mumias narrowly. The lessons I learnt are what is responsible for my gains now. I learnt the lessons and I changed. Management,management, management. People see KQ rallying for one week and wanna buy it, but not me. Infact I have written of investing In any gov firm. We all know how they are run. To me even the whiff of a doubt about management is enough for me to bail. I bailed hfck, not because of hfck itself but association with britam. Ask yourself if Kenya Re falls in the group you described.

I feel like mlennyma, you and I should have a group hug. We have surely kept the faith. When we say 20 is a target in 2 years it sounded crazy to most people, but now people can believe. 14 is a pleasant surprise but I expect even more after elections.

Vindication +++
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mlennyma
#1100 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2016 2:46:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
10% rule now can't allow more than 14.30,iam still waiting for news may be or this is just good luck,who thought kk can gain 10% in a day and people refuse to take it?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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