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What is Happening to Total?
youcan'tstopusnow
#11 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 4:33:36 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Traded 11,500 shares today to close at 30.75(up 0.50/= or 1.65%) with a high of 31.
This counter has been subdued for a long period and I think its best days are yet to be seen.
The management of Total did not buy Caltex for a flimsy reason, an analysis must have been done for them to go through with it.
An acquisition does not normally deliver immediate value to the shareholder just like:
Equity with the Uganda expansion(still making huge losses) but prospects are excellent
Access Kenya with Openview( Judging from recent comments from the management set to be profitable)
Mumias shareholders not yet realising FULL benefits of the Co-generation plant due to it repaying the PROPARCO loan.

From the above examples I think its safe to say that the "secret" of investing is to spot opportunities early on, instead of waiting for the benefits to accrue in the financial statements then rushing to your broker.
Anyone interested in Total should not wait for tHem to announce the results. I believe one should invest in companies which they only believe in the MANAGEMENT. Going by this mantra, you thus MUST trust the Total management was right to acquire Chevron Assets in Kenya.
If you don't trust the management, don't invest e.g I believe VVS will never touch Merali's companies since he doesn't trust him. Ama aje VVS?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Wednesday, May 05, 2010 5:04:57 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@youwithlongname - LOL... yes, I avoid merali firms... I dont have the time or energy to figure out what is happening at his firms...

Now for some... merali firms are great coz they are very volatile... I am a fan of Warren Buffett who likes 'good' management whose interests are aligned with shareholders...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Kesh!
#13 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 11:11:57 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/16/2008
Posts: 47
Hey when will the loan that total used to finance the chevron deal be repaid?
Gordon Gekko
#14 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 11:35:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@kesh! Loan was 4.6B and redeemable preference shares were 3.9B. Their PAT last year was 0.5B. So if all profits went to clear the loan it would take (3.9 + 4.6) / (0.5 * 1.3) = roughly 13 years. The 1.3 is an estimate of PAT before taxes as interest payments are tax deductible. That's a long ride. Keep the stock for the grand kids, like I have decided.
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 12:41:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@GG - That is wrong coz when the profits from Chevron start rolling in the Loan will be repaid... My point... is it will be 6-7 years not 13 years...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#16 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 1:59:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Very true @vvs, but the marginal sales from the Caltex acquisition are not very significant given the 25% cap on retail stations a retailer can have. I believe Total had 17% before the merger so they are now selling an extra 8% (maybe). Significant, but not fantastic. Maybe there is more cash to be made from refinery stake and avgas. I still reckon the stock is for my grand kids.
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 2:11:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@GG - Chevron/Total have no stake in the refinery... Sold to Essar...

The market for petrol has GROWN in Kenya so the 17% of 2008 is lower than the 17% of 2009 which will be much lower than 17% of 2010...

I cant say whether Total made a good decision in buying Chevron/Caltex but I think the payoff will be sooner than 13 years.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
stock.enigma
#18 Posted : Thursday, May 06, 2010 2:12:18 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/14/2009
Posts: 244
@GG
Remember that they will be selling some of the chevron assets. Caltex Nairobi West and Ngong road are some of the examples of assets on offer. There are many more. They may redeem half the shares within the next year or so.
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