What i've come to learn about this Market is that before any material date is due a share normally shoots up and not because of any fundamentals but coz of speculation play. Most guys caught here are the ones who are myopic and are most excited by the rush of getting into something moving not knowing the guys selling to them will buy from them when they are selling in panic at rock bottom prices after the material date and the price is falling.
Follow WB's advice and be fearful SELL now. Reasons:
1. Their growth in earnings is currently based on reducing their expenses and not concentrating on their core business.
2. Their loan book is not growing.
3. Kenyan business banking going towards SME banking and they've not yet developed a product based on this.
4. First guys to list when Referencing Act was established and they got a beating on this. Be ready for more loan write-offs as listed people have been found not to pay.
5. Their MD is concentrating more on West Africa than here.
6. Their new free ATM banking charges model IMHO is not targeting the right market.
7. It seems that they are now playing catch-up to mid sized banks, Equity & KCB in product delivery meaning they are now less innovative.
8. From being the most profitable bank to the fifth. This should tell you alot.
For this bank the list is endless.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary