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Trump presidency on the world economy!
Yowel
#21 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 1:50:17 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 10/14/2016
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
KulaRaha wrote:
But isn't a weak dollar perfect for Trump & America: lowers cost of manufacturing?


Looking at it from one angle yes. A weaker currency boosts exports and inflation (currently good for America now) but on the flipside, inflation will only rise when America exports goods to countries with stronger currencies. Japan tried to weaken their currency in 2013 to boost exports and flopped, blaming it on low international demand. Exports shall be uncompetitive considering the high cost of manufacturing in the US. Thus the weaker currency shall not help
alma1
#22 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 1:53:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,871
Location: hapo
KulaRaha wrote:
But isn't a weak dollar perfect for Trump & America: lowers cost of manufacturing?


Labor costs in the US are the single most expensive factor of production. It's cheaper for nike to make a shoe in Thailand and then export it to the US. Why? Labor. A weak dollar only means more costs of production as they compete with other companies worldwide that don't suffer $40 an hour costs for a shoeshinner.
Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?

karasinga
#23 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 2:00:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
look at what happened post election to eurusd. I tend to think bearish sentiment might continue for a while before many come into terms with the reality.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Obi 1 Kanobi
#24 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 2:12:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
I am torn between free trade and protectionism.

Buying imported cheap goods is ok as long as you have a favorable BOP, however, the minute you start losing jobs overseas is the minute you start bankrupting your country.

The simple logic being how are people supposed to buy cheap stuff if they don't have jobs to earn anything. Lost jobs equates to lost votes and that's what Trump capitalized on by promising to return jobs in America to Americans through deportation of illegals and protectionism. Dunno how this is gonna get realized.

A top casualty of Trump America has to be the WTO.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
alma1
#25 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 2:24:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,871
Location: hapo
Obi 1 therein lies the problem with the Trump vote. He promised what even he knows is a very complicated issues.

So he deports 5 million illegals. Those illegals were paying rent, paying taxes, paying for services and goods. Immediately, you drop your revenues. I'm not saying its even ever going to happen, but in case it happens, it shall be an economic disaster.

Don't believe those stories about illegals or criminal aliens. Most of them have well paying jobs and earn more than the lazy american worker.

Also note how the American economy is currently constituted. It's not the old system of building a tyre and selling it. It's now about shares and stocks and financial gaming and selling ideas such as facebook worldwide.

The American worker who's complaining about jobs is the same one who's going to complain about his retirement fund dropping in value. The retirement fund is investing in Nike to sell shoes to the world. Trump comes along and tells Nike that they must bring back the job to America. Nike profits fall due to an increase in production costs. The American worker doesn't get a return from his retirement fund and all of a sudden they hate Trump coz the economy crashed.

Someone needs to tell these people that there's no manufacturing jobs coming to America soon. They have even refused to fund their green tech industries because they are unamerican. And have now voted a president who says global warming is a hoax.

Meanwhile with the falling dollar, the oil they covet so much shall drop.. I mean. You can't write these stuff up.

You can't help these lazy people.
Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?

tom_boy
#26 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 3:43:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
@alma1, this is where we differ. Who says Nike must produce in America for the world. Nike will produce in America for America and in China for the world.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
tom_boy
#27 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 3:57:44 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
@alma1, this is where we differ. Who says Nike must produce in America for the world. Nike will produce in America for America and in China for the world.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
Obi 1 Kanobi
#28 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 4:15:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
alma1 wrote:
Obi 1 therein lies the problem with the Trump vote. He promised what even he knows is a very complicated issues.

So he deports 5 million illegals. Those illegals were paying rent, paying taxes, paying for services and goods. Immediately, you drop your revenues. I'm not saying its even ever going to happen, but in case it happens, it shall be an economic disaster.

Don't believe those stories about illegals or criminal aliens. Most of them have well paying jobs and earn more than the lazy american worker.

Also note how the American economy is currently constituted. It's not the old system of building a tyre and selling it. It's now about shares and stocks and financial gaming and selling ideas such as facebook worldwide.

The American worker who's complaining about jobs is the same one who's going to complain about his retirement fund dropping in value. The retirement fund is investing in Nike to sell shoes to the world. Trump comes along and tells Nike that they must bring back the job to America. Nike profits fall due to an increase in production costs. The American worker doesn't get a return from his retirement fund and all of a sudden they hate Trump coz the economy crashed.

Someone needs to tell these people that there's no manufacturing jobs coming to America soon. They have even refused to fund their green tech industries because they are unamerican. And have now voted a president who says global warming is a hoax.

Meanwhile with the falling dollar, the oil they covet so much shall drop.. I mean. You can't write these stuff up.

You can't help these lazy people.


@Alma

Does the ordinary American care whether Nike sells shoes overseas? probably not. The truth is globalization benefits the very few elites, just the same way Uhuru's sister imported containers in the pretext of benefiting kenyans with mobile clinics is the same way Nike making shoes in China to sell in the US (or world) benefits the ordinary horse-riding cowboy in Texas, zilch!!!

Think about it, globalization is about wallstreet, FTSE, DAX, NIKKEI etc. People are beginning to learn this slowly. The rural folk who voted for Trump can't tell the difference btn Kenya and Africa and really don't care.

This is the same platform Bernie Sanders campaigned from and almost defeated Clinton. I bet some of his supporters opted to vote for Trump.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
tom_boy
#29 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 4:19:44 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 767
Sometimes I wonder, how did SouthAfrica make it during Apartheid yet they have a small white population with purchasing power. They were able to build large industry, car plants, agricultural behemorths despite the Apartheid sunctions. Fast forward, America has a population of 300 million , many quite well off with serious purchasing power. No industry/ company will shun that market. They will make in America, for America. Americans will buy Made in America because it will be that or an over priced Chinese import. Manufacturer and millionares will be happy coz of promised tax cuts. Illegal immigrants are out. Hard working Americans will earn a living. I am no economist but from where I seat, I see no reason why its not do able.
They must find it difficult....... those who have taken authority as the truth, rather than truth as the authority. -G. Massey.
vin
#30 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 4:28:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/22/2007
Posts: 336
At one point in life i thought the Americans were very smart and intelligent.They have however kept proving otherwise through some terrible decisions.This of electing Trumph is a catastrophe
I imagine watoto wa nyayo wkiimba kwa airport ati,sisi wanakwaya kutoka ndunduri twakaribisha mugeni kutoka America,Anaitwa trumph amekuja na dollar.twakaribisha mugeni
Advice is like snow.The softer it lands the harder is sticks.
streetwise
#31 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 4:34:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Let's watch. I hope some ok me was as taking notes when Trump was talking. Reality Tv and real life are different matters
Obi 1 Kanobi
#32 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 4:43:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 3,017
vin wrote:
At one point in life i thought the Americans were very smart and intelligent.They have however kept proving otherwise through some terrible decisions.This of electing Trumph is a catastrophe
I imagine watoto wa nyayo wkiimba kwa airport ati,sisi wanakwaya kutoka ndunduri twakaribisha mugeni kutoka America,Anaitwa trumph amekuja na dollar.twakaribisha mugeni


You don't get it, Trump is not dumb, he is just not in your team.
"The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
vin
#33 Posted : Wednesday, November 09, 2016 4:45:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/22/2007
Posts: 336
I hope and pray that you are right


Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
vin wrote:
At one point in life i thought the Americans were very smart and intelligent.They have however kept proving otherwise through some terrible decisions.This of electing Trumph is a catastrophe
I imagine watoto wa nyayo wkiimba kwa airport ati,sisi wanakwaya kutoka ndunduri twakaribisha mugeni kutoka America,Anaitwa trumph amekuja na dollar.twakaribisha mugeni


You don't get it, Trump is not dumb, he is just not in your team.

Advice is like snow.The softer it lands the harder is sticks.
RFE_20354
#34 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2016 12:07:00 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/4/2016
Posts: 18
tom_boy wrote:
Sometimes I wonder, how did SouthAfrica make it during Apartheid yet they have a small white population with purchasing power. They were able to build large industry, car plants, agricultural behemorths despite the Apartheid sunctions. Fast forward, America has a population of 300 million , many quite well off with serious purchasing power. No industry/ company will shun that market. They will make in America, for America. Americans will buy Made in America because it will be that or an over priced Chinese import. Manufacturer and millionares will be happy coz of promised tax cuts. Illegal immigrants are out. Hard working Americans will earn a living. I am no economist but from where I seat, I see no reason why its not do able.

Just like Alma keeps telling you, it all comes down to labour costs. South Africa have a massive cheap labour force from the majority blacks.
alma1
#35 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2016 8:06:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,871
Location: hapo
RFE_20354 wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
Sometimes I wonder, how did SouthAfrica make it during Apartheid yet they have a small white population with purchasing power. They were able to build large industry, car plants, agricultural behemorths despite the Apartheid sunctions. Fast forward, America has a population of 300 million , many quite well off with serious purchasing power. No industry/ company will shun that market. They will make in America, for America. Americans will buy Made in America because it will be that or an over priced Chinese import. Manufacturer and millionares will be happy coz of promised tax cuts. Illegal immigrants are out. Hard working Americans will earn a living. I am no economist but from where I seat, I see no reason why its not do able.

Just like Alma keeps telling you, it all comes down to labour costs. South Africa have a massive cheap labour force from the majority blacks.


tom_boy the reality on the ground in the US is very simple. American workers are lazy and totally unproductive.

Economists from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predict that between now and 2019, factory wages in Indonesia will increase by about 48% to $0.74/hour, while wages in the U.S. will increase by just 12% to $42.82/hour.

So despite the fact that factory wages are expected to grow four times faster in Indonesia than in the U.S., Indonesian factory workers will still be making approximately 58 times less than their American counterparts five years from now.


Tell me, would you as a business hire your workers in Indonesia or the US..As patriotic as you are.

Trump says that he will introduce a 35% tax on companies that produce outside the country.

Let me tell you how utterly stupid that idea is.

All computer firms produce their computers outside the country. The iPhone and Macs, Nike, addidas, Fubu, Ford has plants even in Canada, GM in Canada, most car parts are made outside the country for logistical reasons....I mean even T-shirts.

So he gets to pass this new tax in his first 100 days...I promise you it was hot air he won't. Another con game.

These companies are not in the business of swallowing tax expenses in their balance sheets. They will just increase their pricing to reflect the new tax.

So all of a sudden a shoe that cost 10 dollars will now become 13 dollars. And so on and so on.

It won't take long before the same lazy american starts complaining about higher prices and then we have inflation etc....

I mean you just can't cook up the lies from this fellow.

There's reality and then their's Trump. The American economy changed irreversibly in the Clinton era and more in the Bush era. It is not going back to manufacturing.

No one however patriotic is going to give a high school educated lazy person who sees working 6 hours a day as torture $40 an hour. No one. Not even Trump.

Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?

watesh
#36 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2016 9:41:40 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 969
Location: Kenya
alma1 wrote:
RFE_20354 wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
Sometimes I wonder, how did SouthAfrica make it during Apartheid yet they have a small white population with purchasing power. They were able to build large industry, car plants, agricultural behemorths despite the Apartheid sunctions. Fast forward, America has a population of 300 million , many quite well off with serious purchasing power. No industry/ company will shun that market. They will make in America, for America. Americans will buy Made in America because it will be that or an over priced Chinese import. Manufacturer and millionares will be happy coz of promised tax cuts. Illegal immigrants are out. Hard working Americans will earn a living. I am no economist but from where I seat, I see no reason why its not do able.

Just like Alma keeps telling you, it all comes down to labour costs. South Africa have a massive cheap labour force from the majority blacks.


tom_boy the reality on the ground in the US is very simple. American workers are lazy and totally unproductive.

Economists from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predict that between now and 2019, factory wages in Indonesia will increase by about 48% to $0.74/hour, while wages in the U.S. will increase by just 12% to $42.82/hour.

So despite the fact that factory wages are expected to grow four times faster in Indonesia than in the U.S., Indonesian factory workers will still be making approximately 58 times less than their American counterparts five years from now.


Tell me, would you as a business hire your workers in Indonesia or the US..As patriotic as you are.

Trump says that he will introduce a 35% tax on companies that produce outside the country.

Let me tell you how utterly stupid that idea is.

All computer firms produce their computers outside the country. The iPhone and Macs, Nike, addidas, Fubu, Ford has plants even in Canada, GM in Canada, most car parts are made outside the country for logistical reasons....I mean even T-shirts.

So he gets to pass this new tax in his first 100 days...I promise you it was hot air he won't. Another con game.

These companies are not in the business of swallowing tax expenses in their balance sheets. They will just increase their pricing to reflect the new tax.

So all of a sudden a shoe that cost 10 dollars will now become 13 dollars. And so on and so on.

It won't take long before the same lazy american starts complaining about higher prices and then we have inflation etc....

I mean you just can't cook up the lies from this fellow.

There's reality and then their's Trump. The American economy changed irreversibly in the Clinton era and more in the Bush era. It is not going back to manufacturing.

No one however patriotic is going to give a high school educated lazy person who sees working 6 hours a day as torture $40 an hour. No one. Not even Trump.


Wait what? Average factory wages are $20/hr is US. Still higher than Canada though (Canada has so many immigrants doing factory work, been there worked there. 70% immigrants from low income countries)
US average factory wages
I think US should start figuring a way to entice companies to bring those $2.5 trillion stuck outside US. Trump should work on this first
alma1
#37 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2016 9:55:28 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,871
Location: hapo
watesh wrote:
alma1 wrote:
RFE_20354 wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
Sometimes I wonder, how did SouthAfrica make it during Apartheid yet they have a small white population with purchasing power. They were able to build large industry, car plants, agricultural behemorths despite the Apartheid sunctions. Fast forward, America has a population of 300 million , many quite well off with serious purchasing power. No industry/ company will shun that market. They will make in America, for America. Americans will buy Made in America because it will be that or an over priced Chinese import. Manufacturer and millionares will be happy coz of promised tax cuts. Illegal immigrants are out. Hard working Americans will earn a living. I am no economist but from where I seat, I see no reason why its not do able.

Just like Alma keeps telling you, it all comes down to labour costs. South Africa have a massive cheap labour force from the majority blacks.


tom_boy the reality on the ground in the US is very simple. American workers are lazy and totally unproductive.

Economists from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predict that between now and 2019, factory wages in Indonesia will increase by about 48% to $0.74/hour, while wages in the U.S. will increase by just 12% to $42.82/hour.

So despite the fact that factory wages are expected to grow four times faster in Indonesia than in the U.S., Indonesian factory workers will still be making approximately 58 times less than their American counterparts five years from now.


Tell me, would you as a business hire your workers in Indonesia or the US..As patriotic as you are.

Trump says that he will introduce a 35% tax on companies that produce outside the country.

Let me tell you how utterly stupid that idea is.

All computer firms produce their computers outside the country. The iPhone and Macs, Nike, addidas, Fubu, Ford has plants even in Canada, GM in Canada, most car parts are made outside the country for logistical reasons....I mean even T-shirts.

So he gets to pass this new tax in his first 100 days...I promise you it was hot air he won't. Another con game.

These companies are not in the business of swallowing tax expenses in their balance sheets. They will just increase their pricing to reflect the new tax.

So all of a sudden a shoe that cost 10 dollars will now become 13 dollars. And so on and so on.

It won't take long before the same lazy american starts complaining about higher prices and then we have inflation etc....

I mean you just can't cook up the lies from this fellow.

There's reality and then their's Trump. The American economy changed irreversibly in the Clinton era and more in the Bush era. It is not going back to manufacturing.

No one however patriotic is going to give a high school educated lazy person who sees working 6 hours a day as torture $40 an hour. No one. Not even Trump.


Wait what? Average factory wages are $20/hr is US. Still higher than Canada though (Canada has so many immigrants doing factory work, been there worked there. 70% immigrants from low income countries)
US average factory wages
I think US should start figuring a way to entice companies to bring those $2.5 trillion stuck outside US. Trump should work on this first


My quote is from Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com...mes-indonesia-s-by-2019

As for enticing companies to move to the US?

Two ways

1. Lower taxes
2. Destroy the unions
3. Increase immigration just as the Canadians have done. By the way have you noticed that the sharktank is mainly made of Canadian businessmen and entreprenuers who make it a point to reduce costs by manufacturing outside the country?

Lowering taxes for the rich companies is exactly what these voters say they don't want to hear.

Destroying the unions so that you can get cheaper labor will get anyone removed from gov't in a week.

The only way that the US can win worldwide is to become more efficient or find industries that they beat everyone else at.

Threatening companies just won't work. They'll just increase their prices as there's no CEO who will go to their shareholders with a balance sheet that's down because he loves America.

They created the capitalist economy, they have to lay in the bed they made.
Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?

mkenyan
#38 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2016 1:26:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/1/2009
Posts: 1,883
watesh wrote:
alma1 wrote:
RFE_20354 wrote:
tom_boy wrote:
Sometimes I wonder, how did SouthAfrica make it during Apartheid yet they have a small white population with purchasing power. They were able to build large industry, car plants, agricultural behemorths despite the Apartheid sunctions. Fast forward, America has a population of 300 million , many quite well off with serious purchasing power. No industry/ company will shun that market. They will make in America, for America. Americans will buy Made in America because it will be that or an over priced Chinese import. Manufacturer and millionares will be happy coz of promised tax cuts. Illegal immigrants are out. Hard working Americans will earn a living. I am no economist but from where I seat, I see no reason why its not do able.

Just like Alma keeps telling you, it all comes down to labour costs. South Africa have a massive cheap labour force from the majority blacks.


tom_boy the reality on the ground in the US is very simple. American workers are lazy and totally unproductive.

Economists from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predict that between now and 2019, factory wages in Indonesia will increase by about 48% to $0.74/hour, while wages in the U.S. will increase by just 12% to $42.82/hour.

So despite the fact that factory wages are expected to grow four times faster in Indonesia than in the U.S., Indonesian factory workers will still be making approximately 58 times less than their American counterparts five years from now.


Tell me, would you as a business hire your workers in Indonesia or the US..As patriotic as you are.

Trump says that he will introduce a 35% tax on companies that produce outside the country.

Let me tell you how utterly stupid that idea is.

All computer firms produce their computers outside the country. The iPhone and Macs, Nike, addidas, Fubu, Ford has plants even in Canada, GM in Canada, most car parts are made outside the country for logistical reasons....I mean even T-shirts.

So he gets to pass this new tax in his first 100 days...I promise you it was hot air he won't. Another con game.

These companies are not in the business of swallowing tax expenses in their balance sheets. They will just increase their pricing to reflect the new tax.

So all of a sudden a shoe that cost 10 dollars will now become 13 dollars. And so on and so on.

It won't take long before the same lazy american starts complaining about higher prices and then we have inflation etc....

I mean you just can't cook up the lies from this fellow.

There's reality and then their's Trump. The American economy changed irreversibly in the Clinton era and more in the Bush era. It is not going back to manufacturing.

No one however patriotic is going to give a high school educated lazy person who sees working 6 hours a day as torture $40 an hour. No one. Not even Trump.


Wait what? Average factory wages are $20/hr is US. Still higher than Canada though (Canada has so many immigrants doing factory work, been there worked there. 70% immigrants from low income countries)
US average factory wages
I think US should start figuring a way to entice companies to bring those $2.5 trillion stuck outside US. Trump should work on this first

that's a 2012 article and rates. must have increased by now.
wukan
#39 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2016 1:33:49 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,590
You gotta love the way the markets are cheering the return of Reaganomics plus infrastructure spending. Result a spike in US inflation is coming up. Emerging markets will see US capital going back home with the tax cuts and tax holidays. Muscular dollar on the way
washiku
#40 Posted : Thursday, November 10, 2016 2:31:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/9/2007
Posts: 13,095
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