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lochaz-index
#4961 Posted : Tuesday, October 11, 2016 1:18:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago.

Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike.

http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/

KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time?

African currencies are having a torrid time especially the ones with fixed pegs. The Egyptian pound is falling like a rock and is still expected to fall some more.
Quote:
Abdel Aal expects the CBE to follow the controlled flotation and drop the Egyptian pound’s value down against the US dollar by 30%, either once or twice.

More fx expenditures than revenue means the CBE doesn't have the ammo to float the currency despite the IMF's insistence.

The next 18-24 months are promising to be excruciating for developing economies and their currencies more so the African ones.

The fx market is a reliable pulse reader of coming moves in the financial world. Recent actions imply some heavy weight action is on the way probably in the bond market.
http://www.dailynewsegyp...cial-request-borrow-imf/
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#4962 Posted : Monday, October 17, 2016 7:55:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
How will euro banks survive the looming strong USD without breaking the entire system!? Bail-in instead of bailouts will see the commoners riot all over euroland. This is going to be tough to watch.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#4963 Posted : Tuesday, October 18, 2016 9:21:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
The confessions/admissions of failure keep streaming in from all corners. This is a nice read.
Quote:
The Stability and Growth Pact has more or less failed. Market discipline is done away with by ECB interventions. So there is no fiscal control mechanism from markets or politics. This has all the elements to bring disaster for monetary union.

http://www.telegraph.co....lapse-warns-ecb-prophet/
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4964 Posted : Wednesday, October 19, 2016 7:47:07 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
The curious case of Japan...record foreign outflows, strong yen even vs the dollar, dropping CPI, weakening exports, bigger QE programs (including buying of stocks) and a falling stock market (investors strong arming the BoJ).
Quote:
The $US59 billion outflow, bigger than in any of 33 large financial markets tracked by Bloomberg, helps explain why unprecedented exchange-traded fund purchases by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have failed to prevent a 12 per cent slide in Tokyo's Topix index this year. With overseas funds pulling out faster than the BOJ can buy, some of the world's biggest investors say there's little hope for a market revival anytime soon.

"Japan is now in a difficult position when it comes to foreign investment," said Yoshinori Shigemi, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, which oversees about $US1.6 trillion.

High-up on Shigemi's list of concerns is the yen, which has advanced 16 per cent against the dollar for the biggest gain among major Asian currencies this year. That's bad news for Japan's export-sensitive Topix, where per-share earnings have dropped about 18 per cent since September 2015, data shows.

Currency strength is also undermining the effectiveness of Abenomics, a key driver of foreign inflows in 2013. The government's prescription of massive monetary stimulus, increased fiscal spending and structural reform has so far failed to spur lasting growth or get the country anywhere near its 2 per cent inflation target. Consumer prices fell for the fifth straight month in August, while households cut spending by the most since March

Read more: http://www.afr.com/marke...18-gs5fz0#ixzz4NY6vvv6Y

Being a net exporter of capital makes Japan a peculiar species. You have to pity kuroda with his brave attempts to crush the yen and kickstart inflation.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4965 Posted : Wednesday, October 19, 2016 8:21:24 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Not only is the average investor aka wanjiku fidgety about investing in any market but the 'pros' aka fund managers are also having their own version of deer in head lights moment by maintaining huge cash positions.

The 'perceived' (but very real) risk levels by these fund managers (going by their cash levels) at the moment are bigger than they were during and after the collapse of Lehman, Grexit fears, debt ceiling concerns or the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote.

http://www.bloomberg.com...els-not-seen-since-9-11
Meanwhile, in Italy, savers - faced with NIRP and shaky banks - are opting to park their cash with the local post office (BancoPosta) despite it not having a banking license. It's anyone's guess how much has already been stashed in mattresses and safes.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4966 Posted : Tuesday, October 25, 2016 10:57:55 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Yuan headed to GFC levels yet there is no market reaction! In the meantime, China has massaged its GDP numbers to read 6.7% for one too many quarters.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#4967 Posted : Tuesday, October 25, 2016 10:15:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
lochaz-index wrote:
Yuan headed to GFC levels yet there is no market reaction! In the meantime, China has massaged its GDP numbers to read 6.7% for one too many quarters.

Every CB is staring at the deflation monster and sweating. Who will fall first? Whoever that CB will be, the outcome will send a nasty shockwave into the system. While fate decides that outcome, currency devaluation is the only way out. USD will continue to gain as all debtors run around trying to pay down their debt. This is spiking the demand for the scarce USD.

Next stop, helicopter money as the bulldozer option to face this ugly deflation monster!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#4968 Posted : Wednesday, October 26, 2016 7:30:15 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Yuan headed to GFC levels yet there is no market reaction! In the meantime, China has massaged its GDP numbers to read 6.7% for one too many quarters.

Every CB is staring at the deflation monster and sweating. Who will fall first? Whoever that CB will be, the outcome will send a nasty shockwave into the system. While fate decides that outcome, currency devaluation is the only way out. USD will continue to gain as all debtors run around trying to pay down their debt. This is spiking the demand for the scarce USD.

Next stop, helicopter money as the bulldozer option to face this ugly deflation monster!


What deflation? Get OPEC to raise inflation and there you have it. December prick the bubbles. Easy smile

A moderated 6 clip growth or beating nought point growth expectations, choose.
Cde Monomotapa
#4969 Posted : Wednesday, October 26, 2016 9:42:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
OPEC underwhelms in Nov and it's routing and moat testing, Fed keeps talking up the USD & hike mongering.

Otherwise, the discount window is closing. https://www.ft.com/conte...s/markets/feed//product

lochaz-index
#4970 Posted : Wednesday, October 26, 2016 7:05:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago.

Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike.

http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/

KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time?

African currencies are having a torrid time especially the ones with fixed pegs. The Egyptian pound is falling like a rock and is still expected to fall some more.
Quote:
Abdel Aal expects the CBE to follow the controlled flotation and drop the Egyptian pound’s value down against the US dollar by 30%, either once or twice.

More fx expenditures than revenue means the CBE doesn't have the ammo to float the currency despite the IMF's insistence.

The next 18-24 months are promising to be excruciating for developing economies and their currencies more so the African ones.

The fx market is a reliable pulse reader of coming moves in the financial world. Recent actions imply some heavy weight action is on the way probably in the bond market.
http://www.dailynewsegyp...ial-request-borrow-imf/


Take 3: at the bottom of the the sovereign bond barrel, Mozambique officially issues an SOS to its creditors. Will it be a soft default via debt restructuring as so desired or an outright default? Either way it has good company in the form of Venezuela.

Their debt to GDP ratio is projected to close at 130% by end of 2016. A developed nation can try to juggle this kind of debt, but for a developing economy it is toxic. This has grown from 62.4% in 2014, 53.1% in 2013 and 38.1% in 2011. Ring a bell? KE had better watch out. Things went south in a two year window and now they are in distress.

The metical lost 30% vs the dollar in 2015 and a further 70% this year which ballooned their debt. With inflation at a scorching 16.7% (from 2.4% in 2015), the BdM has hiked its rate to circa 23%.

http://www.wsj.com/artic...estructuring-1477418742

EA economies and currencies have held their ground quite admirably in 2016, will they manage the same feat?
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4971 Posted : Wednesday, October 26, 2016 7:45:54 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Yuan headed to GFC levels yet there is no market reaction! In the meantime, China has massaged its GDP numbers to read 6.7% for one too many quarters.

Every CB is staring at the deflation monster and sweating. Who will fall first? Whoever that CB will be, the outcome will send a nasty shockwave into the system. While fate decides that outcome, currency devaluation is the only way out. USD will continue to gain as all debtors run around trying to pay down their debt. This is spiking the demand for the scarce USD.

Next stop, helicopter money as the bulldozer option to face this ugly deflation monster!


What deflation? Get OPEC to raise inflation and there you have it. December prick the bubbles. Easy smile

A moderated 6 clip growth or beating nought point growth expectations, choose.

Deflation is here and/or coming in all shapes and sizes; from imminent debt defaults, technology driven disruptions, aging populations, sagging social schemes, unconventional policies(NIRP etc), poor long term economic outlooks (for advanced economies) and so forth. Managing such, is beyond any entity despite their proclamations to the contrary. The global economy can be Japanized pretty quick, some for longer periods than others (years vs decades).

To the best of my knowledge, devaluation of currencies in the current environment is a zero sum game. With both world trade and world economic growth at 15 year lows there will be no winner, just a bunch of people holding worthless paper. Not that it will stop most from trying but the end game is a lose-lose outcome.

With regards to oil, I am still waiting for it at below $20pb.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Gatheuzi
#4972 Posted : Tuesday, November 01, 2016 8:53:05 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/16/2009
Posts: 994
A new study now concludes that contrary to the earlier believe, lower consumer spending in Euro zone is to blame but not underinvestment. The solution has then been largely pegged to increasing the aggregate demand according to ECB economist, Philip Vermeulen.

Bloomberg wrote:
“The current recovery in investment can only be sustained if aggregate consumption also grows at a sufficiently robust pace in parallel. Policymakers would be misguided to focus on investment exclusively.”


link.....
Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
Ericsson
#4973 Posted : Tuesday, November 01, 2016 9:58:33 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,628
Location: NAIROBI
Euro zone needs to increase the birth rate of the member countries.
There are few young people and an aging population.
The young people are the innovators and spenders
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Angelica _ann
#4974 Posted : Tuesday, November 01, 2016 10:04:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
Ericsson wrote:
Euro zone needs to increase the birth rate of the member countries.
There are few young people and an aging population.
The young people are the innovators and spenders

I hear China has realised this already..... The need to have a young innovative group to keep the economy going!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
lochaz-index
#4975 Posted : Tuesday, November 01, 2016 8:55:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Ericsson wrote:
Euro zone needs to increase the birth rate of the member countries.
There are few young people and an aging population.
The young people are the innovators and spenders

This maybe true but what happens when an increase in population doesn't necessarily translate into increased spending? Plus this is coming from a populace that is predisposed to higher spending per capita than anywhere else in the world save for the US.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
hisah
#4976 Posted : Tuesday, November 01, 2016 9:57:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
US markets being setup just like FTSE. Brexit 2.0 coming up. As usual the initial reaction post election results will trap the market participants! Get ready for a dizzy rally when the dust settles...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#4977 Posted : Wednesday, November 02, 2016 11:54:12 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
US markets being setup just like FTSE. Brexit 2.0 coming up. As usual the initial reaction post election results will trap the market participants! Get ready for a dizzy rally when the dust settles...

This particular breakout will be a major one. US indices have been in stagnation mode for the better part of two years (since 2014). A few scares or flash crashes here and there but largely no movement.

As if that was not enough both the dollar index and bond yields are also exhibiting a change in trend. It will be one heck of a market if all three breakout with aplomb at the same time.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4978 Posted : Thursday, November 03, 2016 9:39:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Despite an almost 2000 year span of evolution and advancement into the modern era, human behavior/character and government mechanics remain the same throughout the ages. The beginning of the collapse of the Roman Empire is literally repeating itself in Greece.

Saddled with rising property taxes, shrinking incomes and enormous private debt, Greeks are now turning down property inheritance.
Quote:
The figures are clear. In 2013, two years after a property tax was introduced (previously, real estate tax revenue came mainly from transfers or conveyance taxes), 29,200 people declined to accept their inheritance, according to the Justice Ministry. In 2015, the number had climbed to 45,627, an increase of 56 percent in two years. Reports from across the country suggest that this year, too, large numbers of people are refusing to inherit.

The government being the ultimate party pooper is accentuating a real estate bear that has chased away investment and is threatening to chase away human capital en masse.
http://mobile.nytimes.co...king-news/breaking-news/
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4979 Posted : Thursday, November 03, 2016 10:20:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Funny how KE keeps getting itself into jams that it ought not to have. NSSF is now investing less than half what its members are contributing with the bulk of the contributions going to offset administration expenses.

It is now operating less efficiently than smaller competitors regardless of its economies of scale advantages.

Their NSE and bond portfolios would be an interesting trend to read. And I thought that social schemes going burst was a problem for developed economies only.
http://www.businessdaily...37832-k5w14d/index.html

Economic, political and social trends are moving in lock step.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
lochaz-index
#4980 Posted : Thursday, November 03, 2016 5:15:22 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
lochaz-index wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
The naira has been through one tough roller coaster. The official devaluation downgraded it from 190 to 300+ vs the dollar in four months(June through to September) whilst the black market rate is still north of 400 having clocked a gruesome 436 about two weeks ago.

Having extended a zero interest loan to Nigeria, the IMF is pressing for further debasement and a fuel hike.

http://www.vanguardngr.c...itions-tough-handle-fg/

KE has taken two precautionary loans in two years, will it find itself in the same predicament in one years time?

African currencies are having a torrid time especially the ones with fixed pegs. The Egyptian pound is falling like a rock and is still expected to fall some more.
Quote:
Abdel Aal expects the CBE to follow the controlled flotation and drop the Egyptian pound’s value down against the US dollar by 30%, either once or twice.

More fx expenditures than revenue means the CBE doesn't have the ammo to float the currency despite the IMF's insistence.

The next 18-24 months are promising to be excruciating for developing economies and their currencies more so the African ones.

The fx market is a reliable pulse reader of coming moves in the financial world. Recent actions imply some heavy weight action is on the way probably in the bond market.
http://www.dailynewsegyp...ial-request-borrow-imf/

The Egyptian pound crashes by 48% vs the dollar after it is allowed to float freely courtesy of IMF's strong arming. http://money.cnn.com/201...ink&linkId=30661030
CB's are losing the battle to prop up their respective currencies.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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