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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Expect measly dividend payout from the banks at FY 2016. They have to stash away some dry powder to last the fight. Meanwhile gross sector's NPLs are slowly creeping on the 10% mark. Let's see whether the reduced rates will help to reduce the build up or the tough business environment will negate any gains on that front. I don't expect any bank to go on a loan buying spree of existing loan accounts...that will be suicide. Stanchart pulled off that stunt in 2014 when KBRR was first introduced @10.9%. For about three months in Q3 they took on loans from all over the park. This came back to sting them hard at FY 2015 through huge provisions. Conservatism is of the essence. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:A Socionomic View of AccidentsAt market tops (the height of positive social mood) flying is safer while driving is dangerous. The elevated social mood creates feelings of inclusionism. Flying requires joint effort with different teams working together to make the event a success. Thus enough attention is directed at safety. The elevated social mood creates optimism. Optimistic drivers over-speed thus leading to accidents. ................................................. In bear markets, social mood is depressed creating feelings of exclusionism (people pulling in different directions). Thus, for flights, this pulling apart precludes paying enough attention to safety measures hence aviation accidents. Depressed people do not over-speed thus fewer vehicular accidents in a bear market. Therefore, as this bear matures, ensure you limit frequency of your flying and embark on driving more.  Post 1036 on October 15th, 2015 Light aircraft crashes in Ngonglink Light aircraft crash-lands in Malindi link
Aircraft crashes at Nairobi National Park Quote:A light aircraft belonging to SPC Aviation College has crashed at Nairobi National Park.
An instructor and a female student on board the aircraft escaped unhurt. linkYou call them coincidence. We call it the power of The Wave Principle. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 190
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Yea, it can't be coincidence any more. Others are predicting that they will keep falling for the next three years, despite the expected 6% growth on GDP. Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:A Socionomic View of AccidentsAt market tops (the height of positive social mood) flying is safer while driving is dangerous. The elevated social mood creates feelings of inclusionism. Flying requires joint effort with different teams working together to make the event a success. Thus enough attention is directed at safety. The elevated social mood creates optimism. Optimistic drivers over-speed thus leading to accidents. ................................................. In bear markets, social mood is depressed creating feelings of exclusionism (people pulling in different directions). Thus, for flights, this pulling apart precludes paying enough attention to safety measures hence aviation accidents. Depressed people do not over-speed thus fewer vehicular accidents in a bear market. Therefore, as this bear matures, ensure you limit frequency of your flying and embark on driving more. Post 1036 on October 15th, 2015 Light aircraft crashes in Ngonglink Light aircraft crash-lands in Malindi link
Aircraft crashes at Nairobi National Park Quote:A light aircraft belonging to SPC Aviation College has crashed at Nairobi National Park.
An instructor and a female student on board the aircraft escaped unhurt. linkYou call them coincidence. We call it the power of The Wave Principle. Connection between the stock market and light air plane accidents in kenya is too remote IMO. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/15/2008 Posts: 190
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Actually, after a bit of thinking, it seems like @mnandii is suggesting that the stock market is a zero-sum game. From this line if thought, it would follow that all uncertainities that we are about to face e.g. elections, regional political threats, interest rates etc all mean that you can't make money on the NSE in the near future. But these threats will be with us for possibly a couple of years. Surely, me making money out of the NSE is not predicated on these assumptions. Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,472 Location: nairobi
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mufasa wrote:Actually, after a bit of thinking, it seems like @mnandii is suggesting that the stock market is a zero-sum game.
From this line if thought, it would follow that all uncertainities that we are about to face e.g. elections, regional political threats, interest rates etc all mean that you can't make money on the NSE in the near future.
But these threats will be with us for possibly a couple of years. Surely, me making money out of the NSE is not predicated on these assumptions.
@stocksmaster predicted that the same would happen prior to the last election. That NSE would collapse. But the reverse held true.. Its certainly a risky time, but with the correct counters, luck may smile on your choices
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Britam  10.00 handle better hold otherwise nasty nosedive ahead! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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hisah wrote:Britam 10.00 handle better hold otherwise nasty nosedive ahead! True that. All indications are that it will not hold, this bear will take it down.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Britam 10.00 handle better hold otherwise nasty nosedive ahead! There was a rush to buy it at 10 last time, let's see if it holds The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Britam 10.00 handle better hold otherwise nasty nosedive ahead! There was a rush to buy it at 10 last time, let's see if it holds As for now that rush has ran out of steam. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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Spikes wrote:Aguytrying wrote:hisah wrote:Britam 10.00 handle better hold otherwise nasty nosedive ahead! There was a rush to buy it at 10 last time, let's see if it holds As for now that rush has ran out of steam. Just hanging in there 10.05 bob .......  In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Waiting to see how NSE20 handles the bear pressure test at 3300 and 3460 rate shock gap down zones. The volume in the background is telling a story, which will become clear if the index breaks above 4000 in coming months! Will this be the KE Brexit parallel  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Post interest cap law the interbank rate has hit a low of 2.64%. Currently it is at 6.20% despite CBK puts to support liquidity in the sector. Granted it is not a sure proof indicator especially after the collapse of three banks but double digit levels would indicate distress. Parliament has inadvertently and unwittingly turned KE's banking model on its head. Soon enough, some bank will be gasping for air with limited avenues to avail the same. With a challenging Q4 about to commence, banks had better have their A-game in all aspects concerning risk and liquidity management. Thinner margins and bad macros imply less room for error. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,568
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The crowd was burnt to recognition. You can now post and wait to hear the echos
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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hisah wrote:Waiting to see how NSE20 handles the bear pressure test at 3300 and 3460 rate shock gap down zones. The volume in the background is telling a story, which will become clear if the index breaks above 4000 in coming months! Will this be the KE Brexit parallel Been watching Equity (As in handles 28-30) levels and COOP handling 12 KCB still has to reset 22-24 to reestablish support post rate cap. These are key for 3300 test
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:Waiting to see how NSE20 handles the bear pressure test at 3300 and 3460 rate shock gap down zones. The volume in the background is telling a story, which will become clear if the index breaks above 4000 in coming months! Will this be the KE Brexit parallel I take it that this is a short-term bounce from the rate cap down slide. The market is back to its default setting of gaining or losing marginally with no clear sense of direction. 4000? That would be quite a relief if it pans out but I doubt its possibility. Absent of another risk event in Q4(highly unlikely) the index will possibly close the year near the 3000 level. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:Waiting to see how NSE20 handles the bear pressure test at 3300 and 3460 rate shock gap down zones. The volume in the background is telling a story, which will become clear if the index breaks above 4000 in coming months! Will this be the KE Brexit parallel I take it that this is a short-term bounce from the rate cap down slide. The market is back to its default setting of gaining or losing marginally with no clear sense of direction. 4000? That would be quite a relief if it pans out but I doubt its possibility. Absent of another risk event in Q4(highly unlikely) the index will possibly close the year near the 3000 level. I hope Americans will not dissapoint - praying that they elect Trump and shake out globalism for once. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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The bottom comeS like a thief in the night. Luckily I've been buying since last year and almost stocked up The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,175 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:The bottom comeS like a thief in the night. Luckily I've been buying since last year and almost stocked up Several counters recovering though I believe no bull in sight ,but the bull will return one day in a similar version by the time we realize several cows will be pregnant "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bottom comeS like a thief in the night. Luckily I've been buying since last year and almost stocked up Several counters recovering though I believe no bull in sight ,but the bull will return one day in a similar version by the time we realize several cows will be pregnant Hehe. Exactly The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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