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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
sparkly
#1501 Posted : Saturday, September 24, 2016 3:52:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mkate_nusu wrote:
[quote=obiero]Good news keeps flowing http://www.businessdaily...1600-12ofq3u/index.html[/quote]

@obiero, courtesy of Innocent on the comment section. Nothing to add:

Does buying such apartments really make economic sense? Like if 2 bedroom is going for 6.5 million and average rent for such a house along Thika Rd is between 18k to 25k, let's do the math; 6,500,000 divide by average of 23,000 monthly rent comes to 282 months which is roughly 23.551 years. Does it make sense to commit 2 bed room rent of 23 years to buy a 2 bed room house that you can't live in for all that time? For instance people in their 29 years to around 35 years are already moving to bigger houses since some of them are already starting families. So who is the target market for these 2 bed room houses??? Guys below 28 years? Will they afford? And even if they could afford, does it make sense for them knowing in a just a few years they will need to move to bigger houses??

Let's consider another scenario, where someone buys the apartment to rent out. It's 6.5 million, rent we put at 23k, the payback is 23 years assuming 100% occupancy from the date of purchase to the 23rd year. 100% occupancy firstly is not possible, there will be a couple of months the house will be un-occupied and if you add up those months they could come to maybe even 2 years. So payback period of the house is 25 years, or even if we assume that rents will rise as years move, we can change the 25 years to be around 21 years when we assume the rent increase will reduce the payback period by around 4 years. So who is this investor investing in property that will payback the investment in 21 years???? I do not see any economic sense in undertaking these kinds of projects, or rather by putting purchase prices that high, or who are these buyers being targeted???


You haven't factored in capital appreciation.

More importantly you can walk into a bank and come out with 80% of the value of the apartment (5.2m) and invest it in another project
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#1502 Posted : Saturday, September 24, 2016 7:11:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,077
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
[quote=obiero]Good news keeps flowing http://www.businessdaily...1600-12ofq3u/index.html[/quote]

@obiero, courtesy of Innocent on the comment section. Nothing to add:

Does buying such apartments really make economic sense? Like if 2 bedroom is going for 6.5 million and average rent for such a house along Thika Rd is between 18k to 25k, let's do the math; 6,500,000 divide by average of 23,000 monthly rent comes to 282 months which is roughly 23.551 years. Does it make sense to commit 2 bed room rent of 23 years to buy a 2 bed room house that you can't live in for all that time? For instance people in their 29 years to around 35 years are already moving to bigger houses since some of them are already starting families. So who is the target market for these 2 bed room houses??? Guys below 28 years? Will they afford? And even if they could afford, does it make sense for them knowing in a just a few years they will need to move to bigger houses??

Let's consider another scenario, where someone buys the apartment to rent out. It's 6.5 million, rent we put at 23k, the payback is 23 years assuming 100% occupancy from the date of purchase to the 23rd year. 100% occupancy firstly is not possible, there will be a couple of months the house will be un-occupied and if you add up those months they could come to maybe even 2 years. So payback period of the house is 25 years, or even if we assume that rents will rise as years move, we can change the 25 years to be around 21 years when we assume the rent increase will reduce the payback period by around 4 years. So who is this investor investing in property that will payback the investment in 21 years???? I do not see any economic sense in undertaking these kinds of projects, or rather by putting purchase prices that high, or who are these buyers being targeted???


You haven't factored in capital appreciation.

More importantly you can walk into a bank and come out with 80% of the value of the apartment (5.2m) and invest it in another project

Capital Appreciation when there's a glut of apartments available and others coming up?
The "loan" isn't free. It costs 14% [at the minimum] when Rental Yields are only 6-8%.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
The Great
#1503 Posted : Saturday, September 24, 2016 10:12:14 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/9/2015
Posts: 233
If u can service a loan that size and can get a mortgage that size, you can get a loan that size too. Develop a property and sale or flip a property. Ile day Kenyans will realise how much house they can stretch their shillings for, there will be a revolution
"Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
obiero
#1504 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2016 7:56:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,484
Location: nairobi
The Great wrote:
If u can service a loan that size and can get a mortgage that size, you can get a loan that size too. Develop a property and sale or flip a property. Ile day Kenyans will realise how much house they can stretch their shillings for, there will be a revolution

True

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
enyands
#1505 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2016 8:37:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
[quote=obiero]Good news keeps flowing http://www.businessdaily...1600-12ofq3u/index.html[/quote]

@obiero, courtesy of Innocent on the comment section. Nothing to add:

Does buying such apartments really make economic sense? Like if 2 bedroom is going for 6.5 million and average rent for such a house along Thika Rd is between 18k to 25k, let's do the math; 6,500,000 divide by average of 23,000 monthly rent comes to 282 months which is roughly 23.551 years. Does it make sense to commit 2 bed room rent of 23 years to buy a 2 bed room house that you can't live in for all that time? For instance people in their 29 years to around 35 years are already moving to bigger houses since some of them are already starting families. So who is the target market for these 2 bed room houses??? Guys below 28 years? Will they afford? And even if they could afford, does it make sense for them knowing in a just a few years they will need to move to bigger houses??

Let's consider another scenario, where someone buys the apartment to rent out. It's 6.5 million, rent we put at 23k, the payback is 23 years assuming 100% occupancy from the date of purchase to the 23rd year. 100% occupancy firstly is not possible, there will be a couple of months the house will be un-occupied and if you add up those months they could come to maybe even 2 years. So payback period of the house is 25 years, or even if we assume that rents will rise as years move, we can change the 25 years to be around 21 years when we assume the rent increase will reduce the payback period by around 4 years. So who is this investor investing in property that will payback the investment in 21 years???? I do not see any economic sense in undertaking these kinds of projects, or rather by putting purchase prices that high, or who are these buyers being targeted???


You haven't factored in capital appreciation.

More importantly you can walk into a bank and come out with 80% of the value of the apartment (5.2m) and invest it in another project

Capital Appreciation when there's a glut of apartments available and others coming up?
The "loan" isn't free. It costs 14% [at the minimum] when Rental Yields are only 6-8%.


I agree with you mkate_nusu
sparkly
#1506 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2016 12:24:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
enyands wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
[quote=obiero]Good news keeps flowing http://www.businessdaily...1600-12ofq3u/index.html[/quote]

@obiero, courtesy of Innocent on the comment section. Nothing to add:

Does buying such apartments really make economic sense? Like if 2 bedroom is going for 6.5 million and average rent for such a house along Thika Rd is between 18k to 25k, let's do the math; 6,500,000 divide by average of 23,000 monthly rent comes to 282 months which is roughly 23.551 years. Does it make sense to commit 2 bed room rent of 23 years to buy a 2 bed room house that you can't live in for all that time? For instance people in their 29 years to around 35 years are already moving to bigger houses since some of them are already starting families. So who is the target market for these 2 bed room houses??? Guys below 28 years? Will they afford? And even if they could afford, does it make sense for them knowing in a just a few years they will need to move to bigger houses??

Let's consider another scenario, where someone buys the apartment to rent out. It's 6.5 million, rent we put at 23k, the payback is 23 years assuming 100% occupancy from the date of purchase to the 23rd year. 100% occupancy firstly is not possible, there will be a couple of months the house will be un-occupied and if you add up those months they could come to maybe even 2 years. So payback period of the house is 25 years, or even if we assume that rents will rise as years move, we can change the 25 years to be around 21 years when we assume the rent increase will reduce the payback period by around 4 years. So who is this investor investing in property that will payback the investment in 21 years???? I do not see any economic sense in undertaking these kinds of projects, or rather by putting purchase prices that high, or who are these buyers being targeted???


You haven't factored in capital appreciation.

More importantly you can walk into a bank and come out with 80% of the value of the apartment (5.2m) and invest it in another project

Capital Appreciation when there's a glut of apartments available and others coming up?
The "loan" isn't free. It costs 14% [at the minimum] when Rental Yields are only 6-8%.


I agree with you mkate_nusu


By "project" I mean another cash generating venture.
Life is short. Live passionately.
sparkly
#1507 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2016 12:45:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
The Great wrote:
If u can service a loan that size and can get a mortgage that size, you can get a loan that size too. Develop a property and sale or flip a property. Ile day Kenyans will realise how much house they can stretch their shillings for, there will be a revolution


There are many ways to make money in real estate:
1. Flipping
2. Raw land
3. Farming and forestry business
4. Commercial rentals
5. Residential rental
6. Development and sale
7. Business premises
8. Speculation
9. Many others

All of them have pros and cons.

To the topic at hand, I am pointing out that if someone buys the HF apartments for rentals it is silly to just sit back and wait for rental for 20 years. He/she can flip it, borrow with the flat as collateral, or sell it in future at a higher price.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Ericsson
#1508 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2016 1:15:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,654
Location: NAIROBI
Real estate will start making sense when developers realise that masionettes and villas at affordable price will move like water on a slope.
Apartments the oversupply and glut is too much.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
bartum
#1509 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2016 1:15:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
What is flipping
Angelica _ann
#1510 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2016 1:25:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,905
bartum wrote:
What is flipping


House flipping is when real estate investors buy homes, usually at auction, and then resell them at a profit months down the road after undertaking renovations/improvements/modifications etc .
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
bartum
#1511 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2016 1:42:42 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
bartum wrote:
What is flipping


House flipping is when real estate investors buy homes, usually at auction, and then resell them at a profit months down the road after undertaking renovations/improvements/modifications etc .

Thanks
merkava
#1512 Posted : Tuesday, November 15, 2016 6:32:55 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/16/2015
Posts: 39
Location: Nairobi
@Ebenyo @ VVS what your take on this counter-HFCK for a long term investor?is it worth any consideration? with the new face HF i think its a counter to look out for in the long term, whats your take
Barikiwa tufanane
VituVingiSana
#1513 Posted : Tuesday, November 15, 2016 7:30:19 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,077
Location: Nairobi
merkava wrote:
@Ebenyo @ VVS what your take on this counter-HFCK for a long term investor?is it worth any consideration? with the new face HF i think its a counter to look out for in the long term, whats your take

I haven't looked at HFCK, in detail, in a while. I cannot give you but a cursory answer. I like where Ireri has taken HFCK. It's not an easy market to be in but eventually it has to become a full-fledged bank. The "interest capping" did not hurt HFCK as much since its rates were never as high as many banks. I like their focus of "build and sell" since it creates an end product for their customers.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
merkava
#1514 Posted : Tuesday, November 15, 2016 7:45:15 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/16/2015
Posts: 39
Location: Nairobi
Thank you @vvs for your insight. We had an office once 9th floor of Rehani HSE probably thats why I have always felt emotionally attached to this counter.But money has no emotions.....well I will research further and probably decide on whether to jump in
Barikiwa tufanane
Ebenyo
#1515 Posted : Tuesday, November 15, 2016 9:34:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
merkava wrote:
@Ebenyo @ VVS what your take on this counter-HFCK for a long term investor?is it worth any consideration? with the new face HF i think its a counter to look out for in the long term, whats your take


@Markava,HF current EPS is 4.30 while its PE is 3.40.
From this simplistic point of view,my answer to your question is yes,its worth to consider for long term.I agree with @ VVS that it wont be hurt by law capping interest rate.The morgage business profits still forms a big chunk of their income stream.
No matter what,it pays to invest in the long term.

Towards the goal of financial freedom
merkava
#1516 Posted : Tuesday, November 15, 2016 9:39:40 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/16/2015
Posts: 39
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
[quote=merkava]@Ebenyo @ VVS what your take on this counter-HFCK for a long term investor?is it worth any consideration? with the new face HF i think its a counter to look out for in the long term, whats your take


@Markava,HF current EPS is 4.30 while its PE is 3.40.
From this simplistic point of view,my answer to your question is yes,its worth to consider for long term.I agree with @ VVS that it wont be hurt by law capping interest rate.The morgage business profits still forms a big chunk of their income stream.
No matter what,it pays to invest in the long term.

Thanxs bro
Barikiwa tufanane
murchr
#1517 Posted : Tuesday, November 15, 2016 9:49:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
instinct wrote:
Buy HF and Sell Portland

http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/eml2u7z/-/index.html



Interestingly, in the financial period, the real estate arm of HF, HF Development and Investment completed and sold 500 residential units in Komarock 5B, Precious Gardens Phase 1, Kahawa Downs, a retail commercial property known as K-Mall.

The development arm also initiated the construction of Komarock Heights Phase 1 development project which will comprise of 480 residential units.

Following the profit jump, HF announced a final dividend of Sh0.65 per cent, which brought the firm’s dividend payout for the 2015 financial period to a total of Sh1.3 per share.

Mr Maina says HF is entering a high growth phase boosted by the bank’s strategy of becoming a top tier bank by 2020 through corporate and retail banking, and mortgages.

BELOW FAIR VALUE

“Given its growth projects, the current price of around Sh20 per share is below its fair value and is recommended as a buy,” he says.



Any new projects in the pipeline?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
heri
#1518 Posted : Wednesday, November 16, 2016 7:33:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
merkava wrote:
@Ebenyo @ VVS what your take on this counter-HFCK for a long term investor?is it worth any consideration? with the new face HF i think its a counter to look out for in the long term, whats your take


@Markava,HF current EPS is 4.30 while its PE is 3.40.
From this simplistic point of view,my answer to your question is yes,its worth to consider for long term.I agree with @ VVS that it wont be hurt by law capping interest rate.The morgage business profits still forms a big chunk of their income stream.
No matter what,it pays to invest in the long term.

@ Ebenyo, where do you get these figures from? I had subscribed to MyStocks but i find they never update their figures. is there another website which has current and accurate figures?

Do you find the wazua figures accurate? and also where can one get the book value per share figures?
obiero
#1519 Posted : Wednesday, November 16, 2016 8:06:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,484
Location: nairobi
heri wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
merkava wrote:
@Ebenyo @ VVS what your take on this counter-HFCK for a long term investor?is it worth any consideration? with the new face HF i think its a counter to look out for in the long term, whats your take


@Markava,HF current EPS is 4.30 while its PE is 3.40.
From this simplistic point of view,my answer to your question is yes,its worth to consider for long term.I agree with @ VVS that it wont be hurt by law capping interest rate.The morgage business profits still forms a big chunk of their income stream.
No matter what,it pays to invest in the long term.

@ Ebenyo, where do you get these figures from? I had subscribed to MyStocks but i find they never update their figures. is there another website which has current and accurate figures?

Do you find the wazua figures accurate? and also where can one get the book value per share figures?

@heri I missed you

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
Ebenyo
#1520 Posted : Wednesday, November 16, 2016 6:23:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,996
Location: Kitale
heri wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
merkava wrote:
@Ebenyo @ VVS what your take on this counter-HFCK for a long term investor?is it worth any consideration? with the new face HF i think its a counter to look out for in the long term, whats your take


@Markava,HF current EPS is 4.30 while its PE is 3.40.
From this simplistic point of view,my answer to your question is yes,its worth to consider for long term.I agree with @ VVS that it wont be hurt by law capping interest rate.The morgage business profits still forms a big chunk of their income stream.
No matter what,it pays to invest in the long term.

@ Ebenyo, where do you get these figures from? I had subscribed to MyStocks but i find they never update their figures. is there another website which has current and accurate figures?

Do you find the wazua figures accurate? and also where can one get the book value per share figures?


@Heri,i normally do my own calculations.I find it better that way.
These are the formulas i use:
1.EPS= Net income/outstanding shares.
2.PE=Current share price/earning per share.
Relying on your own calculation is better as all those websites gives conflicting figures hence confusion.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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