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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
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kaimbaga2012
#1001 Posted : Thursday, September 22, 2016 3:12:19 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 10/25/2011
Posts: 67
Of late i have been seeing Petrol stations being opened all over. At least that is the picture along the Eastern bypass, Nairobi-Nyeri rd and Nairobi-Naivasha highway. The stations are mainly Shell and Small Oil Marketers. Maybe Kenol Kobil need to be more aggressive in locating potential areas for business growth
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VituVingiSana
#1002 Posted : Thursday, September 22, 2016 4:05:21 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
kaimbaga2012 wrote:
Of late i have been seeing Petrol stations being opened all over. At least that is the picture along the Eastern bypass, Nairobi-Nyeri rd and Nairobi-Naivasha highway. The stations are mainly Shell and Small Oil Marketers. Maybe Kenol Kobil need to be more aggressive in locating potential areas for business growth

During the AGM [& the Business Discussion afterwards], Ohana said that KK will maintain a policy of LEASING (not buying/building) petrol stations in Kenya at a "reasonable" pace. I think it was 15-20 stations a year.

If you recall the history of KK, there was rapid regional expansion, expansion in market share as well as lots of OTS cargoes being bid for BUT all this was entailed taking on huge loans. Then came the currency and oil hedges. And a 6bn loss.

I am happy with "losing" market share [but with modest annual growth in PROFITABLE sales volumes] as long as KK continues growing profitably without need for a Rights Issue.

I would rather see KK improve the designs of stations [faster in/out], improve existing stations and "sweat" the existing assets to improve the ROI.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#1003 Posted : Thursday, September 22, 2016 4:08:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
maina20 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
This will Impact efficient kk very positively

not forgetting cheap credit and politicians moving their convoys across the country ,I feel Kk should give an update on the debt free topic



http://www.businessdaily...390144-ac52c/index.html


KK market share has begun shrinking raising the alarm to investors!

2015 12.7%
2016 1Q 15.7%
2016 2Q 15.5% [Business Daily]

Seems KK is doing a-OK.


Please check the latest data from PIEA ...on 2Q 2016.

Please send [or post a link] me the latest data from PIEA.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#1004 Posted : Saturday, September 24, 2016 2:01:44 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@maina20 - Where is the 2Q 2016 data? A link would be helpful.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mlennyma
#1005 Posted : Saturday, September 24, 2016 11:02:35 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
http://www.the-star.co.k...d-sector-growth_c1424465
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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mlennyma
#1006 Posted : Saturday, September 24, 2016 11:10:13 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
This will Impact efficient kk very positively

not forgetting cheap credit and politicians moving their convoys across the country ,I feel Kk should give an update on the debt free topic



http://www.businessdaily...390144-ac52c/index.html


KK market share has begun shrinking raising the alarm to investors!

2015 12.7%
2016 1Q 15.7%
2016 2Q 15.5% [Business Daily]

Seems KK is doing a-OK.

according to all information I have come across your percentages are so far right leave alone pple talking without supporting data
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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sparkly
#1007 Posted : Saturday, September 24, 2016 2:42:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
This will Impact efficient kk very positively

not forgetting cheap credit and politicians moving their convoys across the country ,I feel Kk should give an update on the debt free topic



http://www.businessdaily...390144-ac52c/index.html


KK market share has begun shrinking raising the alarm to investors!

2015 12.7%
2016 1Q 15.7%
2016 2Q 15.5% [Business Daily]

Seems KK is doing a-OK.

according to all information I have come across your percentages are so far right leave alone pple talking without supporting data


Losing market share in a fixed margin sector is... baaad
Life is short. Live passionately.
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mlennyma
#1008 Posted : Saturday, September 24, 2016 3:35:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
This will Impact efficient kk very positively

not forgetting cheap credit and politicians moving their convoys across the country ,I feel Kk should give an update on the debt free topic



http://www.businessdaily...390144-ac52c/index.html


KK market share has begun shrinking raising the alarm to investors!

2015 12.7%
2016 1Q 15.7%
2016 2Q 15.5% [Business Daily]

Seems KK is doing a-OK.

according to all information I have come across your percentages are so far right leave alone pple talking without supporting data


Losing market share in a fixed margin sector is... baaad

KK is operating within a comfortable and reasonable market share fluctuation,I assume market share is based on what you sell for 3months compared to overall consumption so due to some one off orders and deliveries the figure must be fluctuating within a reasonable range
but I think Kk is not benefiting enough on gas sales their cylinders are highly targeted by illegal re-fillers due to their popularity

"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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  | | Edit by user: Saturday, September 24, 2016 3:42 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#1009 Posted : Saturday, September 24, 2016 7:09:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Hi @maina20 - Please post a link for the 2Q 2016 PIEA report.

@miennyma - Ohana made it clear that he will only target "profitable" business rather than market share. KK doesn't supply avgas to airlines that don't pay their bills.

Gas - Ohana said, at the AGM, that KK is importing 200,000 gas cylinders for all its markets. The goal is to increase sales of gas. We will see the benefits in 2H 2016 and fully in 2017.

OTS - KK wins OTS cargoes but it is not as aggressive as it used to be.

Debt - I doubt, despite Ohana's bravado, that KK will go to zero debt as oil has risen from $30 [when he made the claim] to $47 but there's definitely a reduction in debt vs Dec 2015. KK has access to "cheap" credit which helps keep financing costs low.

Stations - KK plans to annually increase 15-20 stations in Kenya. This is not set in stone but only if there are good locations available. They will be run/owned by dealers. Those not owned by a dealer will be leased, not bought, by KK.

I am looking forward to the next AGM. Not the "AGM" but the discussion that happens after the "formal AGM" is over while most shareholders run for tea and sandwiches!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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gatoho
#1010 Posted : Saturday, September 24, 2016 11:13:59 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
T=20
MainaT= M20?
Foresight..
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