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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,654
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hisah wrote:Ericsson wrote:@hisah
Guys are expecting banking stocks to rally with interest rate cap bill.Funny thinking hapo.
We are in a deep sword as banks will;
-Reduce lending to Mwananchi and focus more on corporates/institutions and GoK
--Limit withdrawals by Mwananchi for them to earn interest
Bear run will persist and insurance companies and pension schemes with huge exposure to the quoted equity mkt will suffer losses. US Fed Bank (FOMC meeting) is on the Wednesday 21st and CBK MPC meeting is on the following day. Let's see what the tape will play.
Since the rate cap law was passed KES has not gained vs USD as a knee-jerk reaction trying to price in the expected credit crunch (deflation). KES should be gaining in strength by now.
IMF is not puking, no threats et al coz of the rate cap. Why?
The banks after the rate cap are not singing in unison anymore. Innovative banking now to kick in due to the credit facility competition that exist via external funding (eurobonds etc).
Global pension schemes are soon going to start to look for positive yield as NIRP continues to bite.
FDI flows to EA at still on the rise.
Like I've said before, I'm not looking at KE from local economics, but from a global point of view.
This time it's different.
May be I'm just a lunatic 
@hisah, i've been looking at the charts this morning and trying out your theory of double bottom. My bottom call comes to 2676. This last leg will be swift and crushing. Waiting for trigger May be I'm also just a lunatic
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,627
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cnn wrote:hisah wrote:snipermnoma wrote:hisah wrote:The FTSE vs FTSE NSE indices divergence is an excellent opportunity for those that can see it.
The moment the sovereign debt crisis strikes, equities will meltup beyond reason... @hisah which NSE FTSE? 15 or 25. Is there a site that allows viewing of both to ease comparison? Yes once govt bonds go belly up, equities will rally. I use the FT.com site.
NSE indices have fared poorly since the beginning of 2016 as seen on the cartoon below. Diverging from global stocks. 
Meanwhile the bank stocks gap downs are getting filled in equal energy as the bounce back hits swiftly. FTSE NSE KE indices are filling the gap today with gains above 3% intraday. However, the technical critical support damage is strong. Those rushing in thinking this is a bottom, caution!
I am no cartoonist but the demand supply situation in KCB and Equity does not convince me they will rally much more from here.On the broader market EABL goes ex dividend tomorrow and Safaricom on Monday and those two could pull the market further south. I was very wrong,instead the beer maker has given a 20% return to those who got in around then and the demand still very robust.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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cnn wrote:cnn wrote:hisah wrote:snipermnoma wrote:hisah wrote:The FTSE vs FTSE NSE indices divergence is an excellent opportunity for those that can see it.
The moment the sovereign debt crisis strikes, equities will meltup beyond reason... @hisah which NSE FTSE? 15 or 25. Is there a site that allows viewing of both to ease comparison? Yes once govt bonds go belly up, equities will rally. I use the FT.com site.
NSE indices have fared poorly since the beginning of 2016 as seen on the cartoon below. Diverging from global stocks.
Meanwhile the bank stocks gap downs are getting filled in equal energy as the bounce back hits swiftly. FTSE NSE KE indices are filling the gap today with gains above 3% intraday. However, the technical critical support damage is strong. Those rushing in thinking this is a bottom, caution!
I am no cartoonist but the demand supply situation in KCB and Equity does not convince me they will rally much more from here.On the broader market EABL goes ex dividend tomorrow and Safaricom on Monday and those two could pull the market further south. I was very wrong,instead the beer maker has given a 20% return to those who got in around then and the demand still very robust. No worries. Nobody can predict the market 100%.
The FTSE break your neck rally will be awesome...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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If the bottom sets in at this level with the huge volume that has churned this year, this will be a sure bet that 6161 high will be taken out! The market will have tested the 2011 lows and confirmed it's a support zone, which will set a double bottom with huge vol spike to boot! Target 2019/2020 new all time highs! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:If the bottom sets in at this level with the huge volume that has churned this year, this will be a sure bet that 6161 high will be taken out! The market will have tested the 2011 lows and confirmed it's a support zone, which will set a double bottom with huge vol spike to boot!
Target 2019/2020 new all time highs! with banks injured is 6161 not a pipe dream? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:hisah wrote:If the bottom sets in at this level with the huge volume that has churned this year, this will be a sure bet that 6161 high will be taken out! The market will have tested the 2011 lows and confirmed it's a support zone, which will set a double bottom with huge vol spike to boot!
Target 2019/2020 new all time highs! with banks injured is 6161 not a pipe dream? Full year results by bank's will shock Kenya. Not much has changed for the larger lenders.. Actually business has grown for some bank's
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:hisah wrote:If the bottom sets in at this level with the huge volume that has churned this year, this will be a sure bet that 6161 high will be taken out! The market will have tested the 2011 lows and confirmed it's a support zone, which will set a double bottom with huge vol spike to boot!
Target 2019/2020 new all time highs! with banks injured is 6161 not a pipe dream? Full year results by bank's will shock Kenya. Not much has changed for the larger lenders.. Actually business has grown for some bank's Problem is less on revenues but more cost of funds. some banks were paying 1% per annum on deposits but are now paying 7%. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,213 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:hisah wrote:If the bottom sets in at this level with the huge volume that has churned this year, this will be a sure bet that 6161 high will be taken out! The market will have tested the 2011 lows and confirmed it's a support zone, which will set a double bottom with huge vol spike to boot!
Target 2019/2020 new all time highs! with banks injured is 6161 not a pipe dream? Full year results by bank's will shock Kenya. Not much has changed for the larger lenders.. Actually business has grown for some bank's Problem is less on revenues but more cost of funds. some banks were paying 1% per annum on deposits but are now paying 7%. In the last 3 years there has never been a moment when FD earned 1%, not even in foreign currency.. Actually we hit a high of 21% in late 2015
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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obiero wrote:sparkly wrote:obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:hisah wrote:If the bottom sets in at this level with the huge volume that has churned this year, this will be a sure bet that 6161 high will be taken out! The market will have tested the 2011 lows and confirmed it's a support zone, which will set a double bottom with huge vol spike to boot!
Target 2019/2020 new all time highs! with banks injured is 6161 not a pipe dream? Full year results by bank's will shock Kenya. Not much has changed for the larger lenders.. Actually business has grown for some bank's Problem is less on revenues but more cost of funds. some banks were paying 1% per annum on deposits but are now paying 7%. In the last 3 years there has never been a moment when FD earned 1%, not even in foreign currency.. Actually we hit a high of 21% in late 2015 Ordinary savings account. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,194 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:mlennyma wrote:hisah wrote:If the bottom sets in at this level with the huge volume that has churned this year, this will be a sure bet that 6161 high will be taken out! The market will have tested the 2011 lows and confirmed it's a support zone, which will set a double bottom with huge vol spike to boot!
Target 2019/2020 new all time highs! with banks injured is 6161 not a pipe dream? Full year results by bank's will shock Kenya. Not much has changed for the larger lenders.. Actually business has grown for some bank's Full year is not a full litmus test for banks,let's start the true picture in this first quarter "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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