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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#241 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 2:55:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,218
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
wukan wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Very true @guy. Only an year ago, we all were presented with an opportunity to grab some risk free treasuries at 23% when the USD bolted. Fixed income remains king, especially if you consider the characters at the helm.


You have too much faith in treasuries and GoK. Have you seen how shabbily the govt suppliers have been treated? Seen how Kengen, NBK, uchumi were treated when seeking cash from the govt? This govt has decided to maximize tax revenues instead of maximizing economic output, heck I have KRA goons chasing me all over town. This is more like when the colonial govt after the lunatic express line was unable to pay for itself decided to levy poll tax and hut taxes. When raising taxes becomes impossible then the devil's alternative will come into play, print cash.

Don't get too tied up with fixed income, you are better off buying quality assets at rock bottom prices.


Wow!
@SufficientlyP
maka
#242 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 3:10:51 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
wukan wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Very true @guy. Only an year ago, we all were presented with an opportunity to grab some risk free treasuries at 23% when the USD bolted. Fixed income remains king, especially if you consider the characters at the helm.


You have too much faith in treasuries and GoK. Have you seen how shabbily the govt suppliers have been treated? Seen how Kengen, NBK, uchumi were treated when seeking cash from the govt? This govt has decided to maximize tax revenues instead of maximizing economic output, heck I have KRA goons chasing me all over town. This is more like when the colonial govt after the lunatic express line was unable to pay for itself decided to levy poll tax and hut taxes. When raising taxes becomes impossible then the devil's alternative will come into play, print cash.

Don't get too tied up with fixed income, you are better off buying quality assets at rock bottom prices.


Wow!


Fixed income has worked perfectly for me...got coupon for SDB 1.11.30 on Monday...0 hustle paid by 10am
possunt quia posse videntur
Aguytrying
#243 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 3:44:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Is that NBK stranded at 7?
What a haircutPray


No buyers. This is very sad for people frantically trying to exit this zombie Sad
Poleni to any NBK shareholders reading this


I wish i could say im surprised but im not. slowly joining cousins. KQ, Mumias, uchumi huko chini


Very sad. People are busy saving, denying themselves lots of comfort so as to invest at the NSE while Gok is busy screwing its listed firmsSad
And this is my final warning to investors at the NSE. TOUCH ANY PARASTATAL/GOK FIRM AT YOUR OWN PERIL
Of course we have success stories where Gok has some stake eg Safaricom.
Let me also emphasis that with a disciplined government, Gok firms are the best to invest in. Between 2003 and 2007, the highest gains were in these firms....but again, that was a different dispensation. For now, you will be wise to invest in high yielding dividend stocks, firms with a low gearing ratio, companies with a history of sound management and profitability and lastly, a strategic partner with VETO powers.
Please remember to also invest in Treasuries, there is a whole thread of how to go about that. A broke Gok always means high yieldssmile


Best advice in wazua by far. Nothing more to add
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
muandiwambeu
#244 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2016 10:44:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Is that NBK stranded at 7?
What a haircutPray

Soko. too bad too know that micro and macro economic debacle landed NBK this far, now add a legal/political policy ie interest caps and feel how desperate it will get inhere.
markets
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
sparkly
#245 Posted : Saturday, August 27, 2016 7:24:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Is that NBK stranded at 7?
What a haircutPray


No buyers. This is very sad for people frantically trying to exit this zombie Sad
Poleni to any NBK shareholders reading this


I wish i could say im surprised but im not. slowly joining cousins. KQ, Mumias, uchumi huko chini


Very sad. People are busy saving, denying themselves lots of comfort so as to invest at the NSE while Gok is busy screwing its listed firmsSad
And this is my final warning to investors at the NSE. TOUCH ANY PARASTATAL/GOK FIRM AT YOUR OWN PERIL
Of course we have success stories where Gok has some stake eg Safaricom.
Let me also emphasis that with a disciplined government, Gok firms are the best to invest in. Between 2003 and 2007, the highest gains were in these firms....but again, that was a different dispensation. For now, you will be wise to invest in high yielding dividend stocks, firms with a low gearing ratio, companies with a history of sound management and profitability and lastly, a strategic partner with VETO powers.
Please remember to also invest in Treasuries, there is a whole thread of how to go about that. A broke Gok always means high yieldssmile


Best advice in wazua by far. Nothing more to add


That advice is coming too late. The time to invest in fixed income securities was 2 years ago. Stocks have a bigger upside going forward in next 2-3 years. When smart money shifts from fixed income to stocks, the reversal will be fast and furious.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Liv
#246 Posted : Saturday, August 27, 2016 11:22:43 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Is that NBK stranded at 7?
What a haircutPray


No buyers. This is very sad for people frantically trying to exit this zombie Sad
Poleni to any NBK shareholders reading this


I wish i could say im surprised but im not. slowly joining cousins. KQ, Mumias, uchumi huko chini


Very sad. People are busy saving, denying themselves lots of comfort so as to invest at the NSE while Gok is busy screwing its listed firmsSad
And this is my final warning to investors at the NSE. TOUCH ANY PARASTATAL/GOK FIRM AT YOUR OWN PERIL
Of course we have success stories where Gok has some stake eg Safaricom.
Let me also emphasis that with a disciplined government, Gok firms are the best to invest in. Between 2003 and 2007, the highest gains were in these firms....but again, that was a different dispensation. For now, you will be wise to invest in high yielding dividend stocks, firms with a low gearing ratio, companies with a history of sound management and profitability and lastly, a strategic partner with VETO powers.
Please remember to also invest in Treasuries, there is a whole thread of how to go about that. A broke Gok always means high yieldssmile


Best advice in wazua by far. Nothing more to add


That advice is coming too late. The time to invest in fixed income securities was 2 years ago. Stocks have a bigger upside going forward in next 2-3 years. When smart money shifts from fixed income to stocks, the reversal will be fast and furious.




@Sparkly,
This will largely depend on the magnitude of government borrowing. Devolution funds must continue increasing to reduce political temperatures, the external loan repayments are already very huge due to Euroboard and SGR, and this might worsen if the USD becomes very bullish (God forbid), we are going into an election year when no one cares about austerity in government spending, and the revenues are not growing as expected, ...ask KRA.

What do you think Gok is likely to do in the next 2 years given the above environment? This week Gok borrowed 25 billion on a 10 year bond at 15.09%?

Capping of interest rates does not mean the government will borrow cheaply. As long as the the government is borrowing at high rates, the money will be made in fixed income securities and I don't see this changing much until after elections.

Your take?


wukan
#247 Posted : Saturday, August 27, 2016 12:21:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,568
@Liv, tell me if this sounds familiar

Quote:
In 1970, Mexico’s economic policy changed radically when Luis Echeverria was inaugurated as president. An enormous fiscal expansion took place and public debt started to increase. Consequently, budget deficits soared to 10% of GDP in 1975 and 1976. The growth rate of the monetary base accelerated to 33.8% in 1975. Consequently, inflation rose above 20% in 1973 and 1974. Meanwhile, the balance of payments deteriorated. Due to rising inflation, the real exchange rate appreciated rapidly and was largely overvalued. The current account deficit recorded 5% of GDP in 1975. Total foreign debt increased sharply to 31% of GDP in 1976. Almost all of this debt was held by the public sector, lent by international commercial banks (Buffie, 1989). Approximately three-quarters of the interest payments were tied to US interest rates and the London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR), which repriced every six months. Therefore, these credits were especially vulnerable to repricing risk driven by changes in the macroeconomic conditions of the creditor nations.


Before you tie yourself in fixed income find out how that Mexico story ended.
sparkly
#248 Posted : Saturday, August 27, 2016 1:41:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Liv wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mkate_nusu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Is that NBK stranded at 7?
What a haircutPray


No buyers. This is very sad for people frantically trying to exit this zombie Sad
Poleni to any NBK shareholders reading this


I wish i could say im surprised but im not. slowly joining cousins. KQ, Mumias, uchumi huko chini


Very sad. People are busy saving, denying themselves lots of comfort so as to invest at the NSE while Gok is busy screwing its listed firmsSad
And this is my final warning to investors at the NSE. TOUCH ANY PARASTATAL/GOK FIRM AT YOUR OWN PERIL
Of course we have success stories where Gok has some stake eg Safaricom.
Let me also emphasis that with a disciplined government, Gok firms are the best to invest in. Between 2003 and 2007, the highest gains were in these firms....but again, that was a different dispensation. For now, you will be wise to invest in high yielding dividend stocks, firms with a low gearing ratio, companies with a history of sound management and profitability and lastly, a strategic partner with VETO powers.
Please remember to also invest in Treasuries, there is a whole thread of how to go about that. A broke Gok always means high yieldssmile


Best advice in wazua by far. Nothing more to add


That advice is coming too late. The time to invest in fixed income securities was 2 years ago. Stocks have a bigger upside going forward in next 2-3 years. When smart money shifts from fixed income to stocks, the reversal will be fast and furious.




@Sparkly,
This will largely depend on the magnitude of government borrowing. Devolution funds must continue increasing to reduce political temperatures, the external loan repayments are already very huge due to Euroboard and SGR, and this might worsen if the USD becomes very bullish (God forbid), we are going into an election year when no one cares about austerity in government spending, and the revenues are not growing as expected, ...ask KRA.

What do you think Gok is likely to do in the next 2 years given the above environment? This week Gok borrowed 25 billion on a 10 year bond at 15.09%?

Capping of interest rates does not mean the government will borrow cheaply. As long as the the government is borrowing at high rates, the money will be made in fixed income securities and I don't see this changing much until after elections.

Your take?




@Liv I am not much of an economist, my strength is more in legal and public finance policy.

My take however is that GOK is betting on the extraction sector (profits from petroleum PSAs and royalties from mining) to reverse the high public debt + deficit combination. Oil money comes with its own challenges including depression the traditional economy particularly agriculture. If oil starts flowing in 2017/8 as Uhuru says, money will shift to equities.

Secondly and most importantly , experience has taught me that markets are more emotional than rational. After extreme bear comes a bull and vice versa. Fixed income does well in a bear, stocks do well in a bull. Rather than rationalise this reality, I have learnt to live with it and thrive with it. Hence I buy undervalued stocks and sell when valuations are high.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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