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Transcentury FY 2015 a stunning 2.96bn loss
alotoftalk
#21 Posted : Friday, July 01, 2016 5:47:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/27/2015
Posts: 138
Location: Harare
The TCL saga is the biggest indictment of CMA. The CMA is following the principle of the mystic apes "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil".

Kuramo Capital have signed a definitive agreements to make capital injection but the minority shareholders and the public are not aware of what their equity stake will be. How many shares do they get? What is the dilution? Your guess is as good as mine. I am also surprised no one brought this up at the AGM. The dilution will probably have a higher impact on future dividends compared with the director's pay.

The annual report only mentions how the debt will be treated and when it will be repaid (September 2016).

Probably best proxy is the NAV and FV numbers on pg. 98 of the annual report. NAV = KES 3 Billion, FV = KES 9 Billion. Therefore KES 2 Billion injected by Kuramo will give them ~22% if KES/USD holds at current rate until Sep 2016.




Investment philosophy development in progress...
Pesa Nane
#22 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:57:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Fyatu
#23 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 2:01:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
Kuramo is bringing 2 billions shhillings in exchange of 94 million shares...elementary arithmetic tells me that each share is worth kshs. 21.27....is this the fair value of this laggard?
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
mibbz
#24 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 2:20:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/18/2011
Posts: 448
Fyatu wrote:
Kuramo is bringing 2 billions shhillings in exchange of 94 million shares...elementary arithmetic tells me that each share is worth kshs. 21.27....is this the fair value of this laggard?



@Fyatu i think there is something else going on. My postulation would be to see where else Kuramo has deployed capital especially on the continent and see whether there are potential synergies to be struck via TCL.

Alternatively, they might have met a savvy TCL management who oversold themselves. Practitioners in our continent often lament how difficult it is to get a good size-able deal and also to value a company prior to a brownfield investment.

https://kuramocapital.com/about/team/
Fyatu
#25 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 2:57:08 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,820
Location: Nakuru
mibbz wrote:
[quote=Fyatu]Kuramo is bringing 2 billions shhillings in exchange of 94 million shares...elementary arithmetic tells me that each share is worth kshs. 21.27....is this the fair value of this laggard?



@Fyatu i think there is something else going on. My postulation would be to see where else Kuramo has deployed capital especially on the continent and see whether there are potential synergies to be struck via TCL.

Alternatively, they might have met a savvy TCL management who oversold themselves. Practitioners in our continent often lament how difficult it is to get a good size-able deal and also to value a company prior to a brownfield investment.

https://kuramocapital.com/about/team/[/quote]


I have tried to dig where else Kuramo has invested but has not been successful. But all indications are that there are synergies between TCL and Kuramo, moreso in the infrastructure space. At the AGM shareholders were informed that Kuramo was finalizing due diligence on TCL subsidiaries in Zambia, TZ, Congo and SA. Seems like after doing their math they concluded that 21 bob is a good entry point. I concur with you that "Tusomeshe watoto wetu"
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
VituVingiSana
#26 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2016 11:42:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,050
Location: Nairobi
$20mn = KES 2.03b
Say they issue the full 94mn shares then Kuramo gets them at 21.50/share when the current market price is 4.50/share...

What am I missing here?

*Plus TCL managed to get the bondholders agree to a huge haircut. I need to have TCL negotiate with the banks for my loan*
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Angelica _ann
#27 Posted : Tuesday, August 30, 2016 2:50:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,901
What is the big news on TCL today?
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
obiero
#28 Posted : Tuesday, August 30, 2016 2:55:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
What is the big news on TCL today?

Back to profit based on wire back of debt to equity

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
hisah
#29 Posted : Tuesday, August 30, 2016 4:31:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
obiero wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
What is the big news on TCL today?

Back to profit based on write back of debt to equity

Quote:
The investment group saw its revenues drop 21 per cent from Sh5.2 billion to Sh4.1 billion in the period under review.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
obiero
#30 Posted : Tuesday, August 30, 2016 7:58:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,472
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
What is the big news on TCL today?

Back to profit based on write back of debt to equity

Quote:
The investment group saw its revenues drop 21 per cent from Sh5.2 billion to Sh4.1 billion in the period under review.


@guru habari ndio hii..
http://www.businessdaily...62766-ry6rt9/index.html

HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Pesa Nane
#31 Posted : Tuesday, August 30, 2016 9:43:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
Angelica _ann wrote:
What is the big news on TCL today?

Bonyeza Hapa:
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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