This is how I see it playing out, should this law stand.
For one, equilibrium will be reached. So good news for the pro-rate cap crowd. Well sort of...
1. Freeze/slow down in lending: Already began btw. By removing their ability to adequately price the risk into loans(coz thats whats happened!) then better safe than sorry. The leaked memo yesterday was just an example. All will follow suit esp with the unsecured loans.
2. Refusal of deposits
Now plenty of people are confused by this. Nobody is saying a bouncer is at the door stopping you from depositing, it means less welcoming(free). Deposits believe it or not cost banks BIG time. Think of costs at point of deposit(branches, agents/cashiers/personnel, platforms), security of the deposits physical(guards, transit vans, safes) or digital(cybersecurity personnel), accounting (systems, personnel). Beforehand deposits paid for their own costs but now someone has to pay. I can guarantee banks are, as we speak, crunching the numbers. Transaction costs will rise(before you jump with the CS approval line, I'm talking about existing fees), ATM charges rising 100%--from around KES 30 to 60+ etc.Notice how personnel featured severally in the deposit-taking costs? Yep, lay-offs. Like I said someone has to pay.
3. Fall of small banks, rise of big(ger) banks.
Big banks will be able to weather the initial credit freeze. Deep pockets mean easy to diversify. Small banks not so much. And its a catch 22 situation for them. Deny credit and not make money. Lend at low rates and be forced to play with volumes game to break even, and with it risk of default shoots. People will see these banks again going under with customer deposits, coz of defaults. So yes M&As will happen but it will be big swallowing small.
4. Fall of production
Forget the car/smartphone buying consumers for a sec. Businesses esp SMEs being locked out from credit access to fuel their expansion/survival. With that, loss of productivity, worsened by being in an election year. Businesses contract and at best, hiring freeze. More likely, further lay offs.
5. Our regulatory environment has been going haywire. We have already seen multinationals leaving, expect that to worsen. With net flight of forex comes weakening of KES. We're a net import country, weaker shilling means more expensive goods. In an environment of credit crunch and lay-offs mind you.
You will not wake up tomorrow and find yourself in a post-apocalyptic wasteland. It's like an avalanche. Slow at first before ramping up to devastating levels.
Here's a tip:
Remember unsecured loans will be/have been withdrawn among them "Emergency Loans". Wait for an increase in those calls of "nisaidie na ka-loan". Also a lot of people are paid(perhaps unknowingly) by credit facilities. Again salary delays...
Or I might just be a naysayer.
The crowd will cheer your coronation as well as your beheading. People like a show, that's all.