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Law Capping interest rates
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#501 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 3:58:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
tom_boy wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Njung'e wrote:

@Wazuans,
How do our interest rates compare with those of our region/continent?. Anyone?

What we are experiencing now in Kenya is called a deleveraging, and a major one at that, more on that later. However, a small part of it lies here, the central bank prints money and charges people to use it. If you have any better use for Kenyan money than what banks are doing, if you can go to CBK take 1,000 million shillings (1 billion) and pay it back in one year with 140 million, whatever you make on top is yours, you are free to do so. The only condition is you deposit something so you don't con them and run away with their money. So what Kenya is experiencing at 20% is what the guys who agree to put their money together, can do, it is like asking a hawker to reduce the price of the mutumba na anakwambia market conditions hio bei ndio mwisho kabisa! And banks are even collapsing with this interest rate! Indeed other hawkers take 5% out there. And i know if CBK gave you that cash, you would go into the same businesses as the banks, land, tenders, e.t.c.

So why the high rate? For interest is a cost of using money, it depends on transactions carried out with this money, two things, spending, and the credit given and money printed and what it is spent on. What is Kenyan money mainly spent on. Two "types" of goods are in major demand,

1. Physical Goods, in Kenya, the mostly land, houses, mitumba cars, buses, matatus, ugali, chapo, githeri, t.v. radio. mobile, mitumba, medicine, middle class add meat chicken and sausages, and mafuta, there is little beyond that, we do import some aeroplanes and other machines, but such are all imports and a burden.
2. Non physical goods (know as services). Education, airtime, consultation, charge for use of money itself in transactions, mpesa e.t.c.

When best of KENYAN banks borrow money from CBK just as your sacco can, they THINK HARD what to do with the money so they can pay the 140 million on top, they look between mitumba, houses, githeri, typically they all end up in real estate, mitumba cars, and the charges for moving your money from the hands of one good holder, to the other, in which Mpesa is now leading. Typically, our financial sector charges and survives mostly on proceeds of land and real estate speculation, which are their number one activity, saccos and chamas do the same, and our interest rate therefore largely reflects the cost of acquiring a plot and real estate development.

When the central bank does it's natural job and prints cash, all the money goes back to land, githeri, mitumba e.tc and this causes inflation, because bei ya mafuta imepanda, the next time the bank goes to look for a plot, it will cost more. This will continue on and on as long as there is no one who can do anything better with central banks money. The people who handle the cash have to pay higher bills and demand higher salaries, and so CBK carefully or carelessly prints more cash, to meet the cost needed to make it's own money work, and the interest rates rise, and the price of plots rise, to cater for the same, a viscous cycle per excellence!

On the other hand when the money is used to create more (new goods), new enterprises, e.t.c, like mpesa shops and mpesa, when the central bank prints cash, the inflation does not happen as bad, for inflation is "too much money chasing too few good"...so what we are experiencing is an opportunity for someone, only no one knows how to innovate like mpesa, no new goods. It is a case of people having no idea how to use money they are given, maybe 'some sacco' will undercut this interest rate, watu watapona pole pole, watu watajua kutumia pesa, no need to regulate.


Hiyo yote does not explain why Government borrowing is blamed for high rates. High rates are simply because banks are greedy. They should be cut to size. With rate controll, these banks will still have to lend to someone,either Government or big companies. Either way,there will be more money to spread around as supply ( deposits) will outstrip suitable borrowers ( demand). Eventually the banks will supply all their cash to gava thus even lower rates ( hurray for big business and credit worthy folks) or be forced to balance gava appetite for cash by lending to slightly higher risk Wanjikus so as not to flood t bills and forces rates down. It will be a dance between gava and banks. I do not see any possible downside to the economy.


PORK must have read @tomboy's comments before signing the bill.
@SufficientlyP
watesh
#502 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:00:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 969
Location: Kenya
Hahhaha everyone is here
ZZE123
#503 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:00:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/21/2008
Posts: 2,490
So how soon should the rates go down and will it affect existing loans??

The man who marries a beautiful woman, and the farmer who grows corn by the roadside have the same problem
Impunity
#504 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:00:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
Kudos to those who believed in the good fight.

But for some reason, I have a feeling that there's a catch somewhere. Waiting for the implementation details.


Bank will bring back the colonial banking chrages like ledger fees, ATM fee, annual fee etc.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#505 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:03:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Chaka wrote:
Will this thing be like BREXIT?Yaani kama ni mbaya ni mbaya..

Yap, our KE version of Brexit.
Lets wait to see whether the USD bulls will show up tomorrow during trading.
@SufficientlyP
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#506 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:04:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Impunity wrote:
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
Kudos to those who believed in the good fight.

But for some reason, I have a feeling that there's a catch somewhere. Waiting for the implementation details.


Bank will bring back the colonial banking chrages like ledger fees, ATM fee, annual fee etc.

@SufficientlyP
maka
#507 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:05:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Impunity wrote:
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
Kudos to those who believed in the good fight.

But for some reason, I have a feeling that there's a catch somewhere. Waiting for the implementation details.


Bank will bring back the colonial banking chrages like ledger fees, ATM fee, annual fee etc.



My account already has that....what else?
possunt quia posse videntur
Swenani
#508 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:08:20 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
If the bank are going to lend at 14.5%(on reducing balance), then saccos should lend at 5%(on principal) for sacco borrowing/lending to make any economic sense.
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
newfarer
#509 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:09:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2010
Posts: 3,504
Location: Uganda
Best thing to happen in the recent past
punda amecheka
Liv
#510 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:11:01 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/14/2006
Posts: 1,311
Kenexit..... The melt down
maka
#511 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:12:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Impunity wrote:
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
Kudos to those who believed in the good fight.

But for some reason, I have a feeling that there's a catch somewhere. Waiting for the implementation details.


Bank will bring back the colonial banking chrages like ledger fees, ATM fee, annual fee etc.



My account already has that....what else?
possunt quia posse videntur
researchfirst
#512 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:12:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/24/2015
Posts: 154
Location: Nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Simba must bow down to THE 20s


Don't think so.

From Fitch, "The immediate impact will be a sharp reduction in net interest margins for all banks. But large players, with stronger franchises and more diverse business models, should be able to attract new business and, with greater volumes, offset some of the squeeze on profitability."

"If the rate cap is introduced and assuming no change in the CBR, this would mean that no loan could be priced above 14.5%, almost 400bp below the current average lending rate. Rate caps could also force loan prices to converge, forcing lenders to compete more aggressively on products and service. This is more likely to benefit larger banks."

Immediately after word came through that the President signed, institutional investors bought over 1.5 million KCB shares @ 33, clearing out a bunch of small standing sell orders that have been sitting there for ages. Expect some interesting moves as people reposition, but KCB is better positioned than most.
maina20
#513 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:12:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 249
Location: nairobi
maka wrote:
The Great wrote:
Why are we still on this topic? He was never signing. Arguement for or against dont help anyone.


Market ime beat we need to talk about something/anything.

http://www.businessdaily...222-10y7tm8z/index.html

..desire to succeed is always fighting with fear of failure..
penkon
#514 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:12:40 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/12/2014
Posts: 96
maka wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Impunity wrote:
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
Kudos to those who believed in the good fight.

But for some reason, I have a feeling that there's a catch somewhere. Waiting for the implementation details.


Bank will bring back the colonial banking chrages like ledger fees, ATM fee, annual fee etc.



My account already has that....what else?


account auditing feeLaughing out loudly
Impunity
#515 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:14:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
Swenani wrote:
If the bank are going to lend at 14.5%(on reducing balance), then saccos should lend at 5%(on principal) for sacco borrowing/lending to make any economic sense.


And my fixed depsit account must earn me minimum 7%pa (70% x 10.5)

The Kenyan banks have found themselves between a rock and a hard-hot place.

If they cant lend me at 14% then they must pay at rate that is half the bank rate...7%.


Applause Applause Applause
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

Swenani
#516 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:15:43 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/15/2013
Posts: 13,237
Location: Vacuum
Quote:
Angelica _ann, Guest (68), holycow, Impunity, iris, maina20, maka, moneydust, Much Know, newfarer, Obi 1 Kanobi, penkon, Rahatupu, researchfirst, Swenani


Bank employees
If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
Impunity
#517 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:18:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
maka wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Impunity wrote:
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
Kudos to those who believed in the good fight.

But for some reason, I have a feeling that there's a catch somewhere. Waiting for the implementation details.


Bank will bring back the colonial banking chrages like ledger fees, ATM fee, annual fee etc.



My account already has that....what else?



Move the ledger fee from Kes.500 pm to Kes.5000.

ATM rate from 30 bob to 300 bob.

Minimum amount to earn the interest is Kes.100,000.

Mtado?
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

moneydust
#518 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:20:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 303
researchfirst wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Simba must bow down to THE 20s


Don't think so.

From Fitch, "The immediate impact will be a sharp reduction in net interest margins for all banks. But large players, with stronger franchises and more diverse business models, should be able to attract new business and, with greater volumes, offset some of the squeeze on profitability."

"If the rate cap is introduced and assuming no change in the CBR, this would mean that no loan could be priced above 14.5%, almost 400bp below the current average lending rate. Rate caps could also force loan prices to converge, forcing lenders to compete more aggressively on products and service. This is more likely to benefit larger banks."

Immediately after word came through that the President signed, institutional investors bought over 1.5 million KCB shares @ 33, clearing out a bunch of small standing sell orders that have been sitting there for ages. Expect some interesting moves as people reposition, but KCB is better positioned than most.


It makes no sense for anyone to be buying bank shares at this time especially on such volumes,unless they had not heard the news before making the order,because I can assure you all bank stocks will be down tomorrow
and the days after.
mlennyma
#519 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:25:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
We can now import large cargo of crude oil at a more friendly interest
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
muganda
#520 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:28:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
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