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Bear 2015 Wish List
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Museveni wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE
EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50
JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00 The price in green was in August 2015, almost 1 year ago. compare with today 8 targets smashed to the downside what's your next move? This is what i have been waiting for since i started this thread 1 year ago. Currently actively buying DTB, FTGH and EQUITY bank. If i had more cash id be also dipping into Pan Africa. adding to TPSE position which i had even before this list. I have since shifted my attention from KCB, NIC due to those ballooning NPLs. i realised i had too many financials so these 2 got the chop. ARM due to 43% dilution affecting my valuation entry point. Softened my stance on HFCK, NSE to avoid too many financials. but still in for them if i can leverage services and manufacturing sector going forward I am slowly buying FTGH [limited quantities]. I like DTB but coz I have exposure in Tier 2 via I&M so I'll stick with one. Equity, I like. A lot. Though I feel it will get cheaper. Plus until the Interest Rate Capping saga is settled it is unsettling. Equity has a lot of "expensive" loans that can get hammered by the proposed Bill. TPSEA - Yes! [At this price] Pan Africa - No. Why no on pan Africa? Equity I think is becoming bear resistant, kind of like Safcom. Plus based on my pe model last year's performance justifies the increased buying price. Now at 37.50 for me. If it gets cheaper the better, but I'm not waiting. I see the interest capping bill as a smoke screen. Banking stocks should have already tanked if it was going to happen. I'm betting it won't The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Museveni wrote:Aguytrying wrote:The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve. Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre. In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round. Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now. STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE
EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50
JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00
SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00
BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00 The price in green was in August 2015, almost 1 year ago. compare with today 8 targets smashed to the downside what's your next move? This is what i have been waiting for since i started this thread 1 year ago. Currently actively buying DTB, FTGH and EQUITY bank. If i had more cash id be also dipping into Pan Africa. adding to TPSE position which i had even before this list. I have since shifted my attention from KCB, NIC due to those ballooning NPLs. i realised i had too many financials so these 2 got the chop. ARM due to 43% dilution affecting my valuation entry point. Softened my stance on HFCK, NSE to avoid too many financials. but still in for them if i can leverage services and manufacturing sector going forward I am slowly buying FTGH [limited quantities]. I like DTB but coz I have exposure in Tier 2 via I&M so I'll stick with one. Equity, I like. A lot. Though I feel it will get cheaper. Plus until the Interest Rate Capping saga is settled it is unsettling. Equity has a lot of "expensive" loans that can get hammered by the proposed Bill. TPSEA - Yes! [At this price] Pan Africa - No. Why no on pan Africa? Equity I think is becoming bear resistant, kind of like Safcom. Plus based on my pe model last year's performance justifies the increased buying price. Now at 37.50 for me. If it gets cheaper the better, but I'm not waiting. I see the interest capping bill as a smoke screen. Banking stocks should have already tanked if it was going to happen. I'm betting it won't No Pan Africa coz I have (enough) Kenya Re. You are probably right on Equity. I'll have a look again after the 2Q results are out. I do like I&M's slow & steady performance. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! All the best. My thoughts Your investment period looks a bit short, also, quite optimistic exit prices for HFCK, CENTUM. but you never know That new-farer was highly optimistic I am guessing he wishes he reinvested into the bond market one year ago It is always advisable to buy in small quantities over a long period during the bear. The biggest downside of @Afloblk's strategy was getting in at one go. Quite a haircut! Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Gatheuzi wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! All the best. My thoughts Your investment period looks a bit short, also, quite optimistic exit prices for HFCK, CENTUM. but you never know That new-farer was highly optimistic I am guessing he wishes he reinvested into the bond market one year ago It is always advisable to buy in small quantities over a long period during the bear. The biggest downside of @Afloblk's strategy was getting in at one go. Quite a haircut! Aliingia sokoni na mioto bahati mbaya ameraruriwa vibaya sana. Poleni ndugu! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/15/2013 Posts: 301
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Gatheuzi wrote:mkate_nusu wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Afroblk wrote:I'm loving the bear...but it's not gonna last long...and so...one of my bond matured and here's how I'm re-investing the proceeds and take advantage of the bear starting tomorrow until I get all shares as planned, hopefully by 15 Oct. I'll be adding three new counters to my portfolio i.e. Centum, ARM and HFCK. I already have significant KQ and Britam but will be adding some more to average down.
Entry point (9/29/15-10/15/15)
KQ-18,000 @5.5
Britam-8,800 @17
HFCK-6,500 @23
ARM-6000 @42
Centum-5,700 @52
My target exit point is on or around 15 Sep 16 (1 yr from today) and targeting the following returns;
KQ-@9.00
Britam-@36
HFCK-@55
ARM-@92
Centum-@85
As you can see, if all plays and goes well of which I think most companies will do well 1&2 Qtrs then I'm looking at aprx 100% return in profits (Ksh0.9M) calculation based on ex div. I've factored in 100k in est broker fees.
I'll revisit this thread in Aug-Sep 2016 when I'm offloading.
Good Luck! All the best. My thoughts Your investment period looks a bit short, also, quite optimistic exit prices for HFCK, CENTUM. but you never know That new-farer was highly optimistic I am guessing he wishes he reinvested into the bond market one year ago It is always advisable to buy in small quantities over a long period during the bear. The biggest downside of @Afloblk's strategy was getting in at one go. Quite a haircut! actually Warren Buffet has a quote that goes"Dont test the waters with both feet" Afroblk did the opposite. As Gatheuzi suggests, enda pole pole...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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Ata ukitoa nguo you don't remove all of them at a go. Ni step by step. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,935
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FLAME TREE, time to buy is now  In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Angelica _ann wrote:FLAME TREE, time to buy is now A question to @Aguy, @VVS and @Angelica_ann....why flame tree? What are you seeing that i am not seeing?  Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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Fyatu wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:FLAME TREE, time to buy is now A question to @Aguy, @VVS and @Angelica_ann....why flame tree? What are you seeing that i am not seeing? I see value. Not an easy path for FTGH to follow. Relatively low PER and high PB. I am waiting for 1H results. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Fyatu wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:FLAME TREE, time to buy is now A question to @Aguy, @VVS and @Angelica_ann....why flame tree? What are you seeing that i am not seeing? When you separate the fear from the facts what are you left with? Does anyone have any negative or inside information about FTGH? There's been alot of talk as the share takes a beating, so am asking if anyone knows anything ( or is it the normal expected fear when a stock declines sharply)? The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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