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KenolKobil HY 2016 ebitda +5.9%, net profit +29.5%
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VituVingiSana
#71 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2016 4:25:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
karasinga wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hope you wont mind my busy chart. trying bar by bar analysis.

I wish I understood the charts...

@VVS, I fear my own humble musings would be much inferior to the excellent work that YOU have already produced here at wazua. at times I wish I understood fundamentals...

I find fundamentals "easier" to understand. Though one has to dig through each item for hidden (+ve or -ve) information. I am following your thread but I admit I need to spend more time on understanding the graphs.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#72 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2016 4:30:24 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
KK will be a big beneficiary should that interest bill become law

UK should sign the Bill pap! The delay means he has second thoughts. Or will do so [with amendments] closer to elections.
I would benefit as:

@VVS borrows
Unga borrows
KK borrows
I&M may suffer in the short-term
KenRe may suffer in the short-term but it can adjust easily. It is a net depositor so getting a minimum of 70% of CBR is not bad.
TPSEA (not a core holding but looks interesting) will benefit as it plans its expansion.
Williamson/Kapchorua may be fine coz they can negotiate higher deposit rates for their cash BUT there main problem are low(er) tea prices.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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lochaz-index
#73 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2016 5:06:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
VituVingiSana wrote:
karasinga wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hope you wont mind my busy chart. trying bar by bar analysis.

I wish I understood the charts...

@VVS, I fear my own humble musings would be much inferior to the excellent work that YOU have already produced here at wazua. at times I wish I understood fundamentals...

I find fundamentals "easier" to understand. Though one has to dig through each item for hidden (+ve or -ve) information. I am following your thread but I admit I need to spend more time on understanding the graphs.

Tough to master both. Most investors - even some obscenely successful ones - are limited to one. Having tried TA back in 2011/12 and failed miserably, I let that ship sail.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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karasinga
#74 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2016 10:11:35 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
lochaz-index wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
karasinga wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hope you wont mind my busy chart. trying bar by bar analysis.

I wish I understood the charts...

@VVS, I fear my own humble musings would be much inferior to the excellent work that YOU have already produced here at wazua. at times I wish I understood fundamentals...

I find fundamentals "easier" to understand. Though one has to dig through each item for hidden (+ve or -ve) information. I am following your thread but I admit I need to spend more time on understanding the graphs.

Tough to master both. Most investors - even some obscenely successful ones - are limited to one. Having tried TA back in 2011/12 and failed miserably, I let that ship sail.

bar by bar analysis continues...
9th August 2016. spinning top formed. This confirms prior analysis made for the last two trading days.This demonstrates some indecision on the part of the bulls and the bears and would warrant watching for the next day’s price action.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Pesa Nane
#75 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2016 10:27:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
VituVingiSana wrote:
Magnate wrote:
Worthy to note 2016 H1 PAT represents 59.1% of 2015FY

That includes a one-time 400mn hit coz of the KPRL write-off! Otherwise, the numbers would look even better. Ohana has something up his sleeve. Why give up $4mn just like that?

Me think the 400mn will NOT be one-off item. The total KPRL yield shift claim was a whooping Ksh. 1.2Bn!!! Anxious (Though there was a counter-claim of Ksh. 3.5Bn if memory serves me right

Again, I could be wrong
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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karasinga
#76 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2016 10:34:39 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
CheckYourSix wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hope you wont mind my busy chart. trying bar by bar analysis.


I would pay for a crash course on these charts.

If you decide to do a 1 week training, do count me in as a student.
If you are not open to doing classes, I would love some guidance/mentorship for a small fee of course as I self learn though through guidance. I'm 20yrs old so don't quote insane corporate figures.

Right now, I have a small portfolio but mainly acquired through fundamental analysis, observing volumes && RSI. Of course also looking at reasonable PE levels, EPS and DPS.
I have not done accounts but I'm extremely good at maths in general currently pursuing an engineering course as I work

Let me know how I can contact you in case you are interested.


dear CheckYourSix,
I feel you comrade... your suggestion was well received. But to be honest with you, I am still learning the nuggets of trading.now 1yr and a few months. It will be important I get it right before embarking on your request. could be you and anyone else interested can start posting your charts here and learn from one another. apologies if my response didn't meet your objective.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, August 10, 2016 5:42 AM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#77 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2016 11:57:57 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Pesa Nane wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Magnate wrote:
Worthy to note 2016 H1 PAT represents 59.1% of 2015FY

That includes a one-time 400mn hit coz of the KPRL write-off! Otherwise, the numbers would look even better. Ohana has something up his sleeve. Why give up $4mn just like that?

Me think the 400mn will NOT be one-off item. The total KPRL yield shift claim was a whooping Ksh. 1.2Bn!!! Anxious (Though there was a counter-claim of Ksh. 3.5Bn if memory serves me right

Again, I could be wrong

Why the 400mn write-off? Why just 400mn [if the total amount is 1.2bn] and not the whole amount?
1) KRA rules? [See how KRA has reacted to banks writing off bad loans]
2) Forced by auditors since the amount has not been collected for many years?
3) A write-down to a level KK thinks they may get if there's a settlement?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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mlennyma
#78 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 1:27:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Muscular trades above 11 and definitely not small men
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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obiero
#79 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 1:39:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,226
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Magnate wrote:
Worthy to note 2016 H1 PAT represents 59.1% of 2015FY

That includes a one-time 400mn hit coz of the KPRL write-off! Otherwise, the numbers would look even better. Ohana has something up his sleeve. Why give up $4mn just like that?

Me think the 400mn will NOT be one-off item. The total KPRL yield shift claim was a whooping Ksh. 1.2Bn!!! Anxious (Though there was a counter-claim of Ksh. 3.5Bn if memory serves me right

Again, I could be wrong

Why the 400mn write-off? Why just 400mn [if the total amount is 1.2bn] and not the whole amount?
1) KRA rules? [See how KRA has reacted to banks writing off bad loans]
2) Forced by auditors since the amount has not been collected for many years?
3) A write-down to a level KK thinks they may get if there's a settlement?

Creative accounting on IFRS
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Pesa Nane
#80 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 1:48:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
VituVingiSana wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Magnate wrote:
Worthy to note 2016 H1 PAT represents 59.1% of 2015FY

That includes a one-time 400mn hit coz of the KPRL write-off! Otherwise, the numbers would look even better. Ohana has something up his sleeve. Why give up $4mn just like that?

Me think the 400mn will NOT be one-off item. The total KPRL yield shift claim was a whooping Ksh. 1.2Bn!!! Anxious (Though there was a counter-claim of Ksh. 3.5Bn if memory serves me right

Again, I could be wrong

Why the 400mn write-off? Why just 400mn [if the total amount is 1.2bn] and not the whole amount? @VVS remember the Ksh. 1.2 is not a DEBT but a CLAIM against KK. Further, the parties made an out-of-court settlement when Ohana took over but the details were never made public. It would not be a surprise to see another provision when times are still good rather than be seen to be cash-rich (higher div. pressure) yet 'indebted'
1) KRA rules? [See how KRA has reacted to banks writing off bad loans]
2) Forced by auditors since the amount has not been collected for many years?
3) A write-down to a level KK thinks they may get if there's a settlement?

Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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