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Centum: On your marks, Get Set ...
mv_ufanisi
#31 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 5:06:21 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Scubidu wrote:
Both Centum and BAT seem to have cashflow problems? At least BAT has a good credit rating and good line of credit, they can borrow to pay those dividends. But Centum will need to borrow for the KCB rights issue and probably for the annual dividend (if they propose anything). Isn't that a big risk on Centum? Current price is not justified at all IMHO, take profits.


Do you know what the NAV for Centum is as of March 31st 2010?
mv_ufanisi
#32 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 5:21:54 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Centum gains will come from the following
1. RVR Recovery
2. Carbacid Invesment - 450million investment (more than doubled with great dividends coming in)
3. Huge gains in quoted investments (check their portfolio)
4. Undeclared dividends from half year (most dividends arrive in the 2nd half)
5. Overall economic recovery influencing their unlisted holdings

Should be a goood year!
Wa_ithaka
#33 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 5:56:17 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
MV Ufanisi-good homework. And the trend is upwards alongside the overall NSE bull.

Centum has cash coming so can invest in other stocks.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 9:53:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Scubidu wrote:
Both Centum and BAT seem to have cashflow problems?

BAT has cashflow problems??? Puhleeze, send me whatever you are smoking...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Bangkok
#35 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 2:25:20 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 4/6/2007
Posts: 31
Guys,
I have this feeling that this is the right time to exit from this counter.
Save the old news of the Ksh 350M from RVR, there seems to be no other driving force in support upward mobility of this share. Is there anything I might be missing?
sparkly
#36 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 5:37:27 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Scubidu wrote:
Both Centum and BAT seem to have cashflow problems?

why would Centum have cashflow problems with so many liquid investments? Besides their cash outflows comprise of what-rent, employee salaries, printing and stationery?
Life is short. Live passionately.
Scubidu
#37 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 7:44:53 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
@Wa_ithaka. Centum must sell KCB at some point. Whether it's now or sell its rights...only way it'll have cashflow. I'm not saying they won't make money, sure they will, but they won't have cash. Those 79m dividends will make a difference, but not as much as the ones GM pays.

@mv_ufanisi. I don't know the NAV, but it will improve a lot but not like pre-2007 levels. RVR recovery is likely to happen, but we don't know for sure and yes the Carbacid Investment will make a difference. We have to differentiate the gains that are recorded on the P&L and those on balance sheet. Carbacid is an associate company and any gains will be recorded in statement of equity, although the dividend will be good. I suspect Centum will continue to prop up Carbacid and sell it soon to one buyer.

@vvs. What I am smoking? Take a look at the financials bro. Let's imagine BAT didn't have an AAA credit rating. Would a company with negative working capital, end year cash balance of -ve 1.2 billion, cash of only 251million, but bank overdrafts of 1.3 billion have cashflow problems? I haven't even factored in the 1 billion final dividend. I'm smoking the good shyt.

@sparkly. Centum have equity investments which must be sold at a profit and whose dividend profiles mostly suck. They sold investment properties and fixed income instruments that would have given them real cashflow.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
sparkly
#38 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 8:11:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@scubidu BAT's cashflow situation is self imposed and doesn't mean trouble for the company. It generated net cashflows of 1.5B from ops. Bought machinery of 1B, i suspect financed by parent Co. Borrowed 0.5B from parent Co. Yet paid div of 1.7B! What i see is a mature, cash rich Co ingeniously using dividend, interest, management fees and inter-company sales to repatriate profits while paying the least tax possible.
Life is short. Live passionately.
VituVingiSana
#39 Posted : Tuesday, April 27, 2010 8:35:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@scubidu - BAT has a net POSITIVE cashflow... The O/D is offset by the stocks on hand & creditors... so the NET effect is ZERO...

If BAT decided to forgo dividends for 1 year, they could pay off ALL the loans...

As for any outlays for capital expenses/outlays... they can reduce it by a depreciation 'transfer' [Well... more complex than that]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Scubidu
#40 Posted : Wednesday, April 28, 2010 7:49:58 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
BAT has cashflow problems, i never said they were in trouble, maybe i should have said cashflow constraints.

@vvs. well i'll agree to disagree. but it wud be nice if ur able to explain these complex concepts that u mention in passing.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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