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KCB HY 2016 results
obiero
#31 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2016 11:47:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,223
Location: nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
I have started going through my copy of kcb HY 2016 results.
My preliminary observation is that things are going well to the right direction.
Q1 was definitely alarming as NPL increased by 30% from kshs 23 billion to kshs 30 bilion.
HY results indicates an increase of 8% from 30 bilion to 32 bilion.
I hope things stand that way till end year because of these
Good points to note:
*Shs 7 bilion will be recovered
from two contractors.They have been waiting for the treasury to pay them.
3 weeks ago,the chinese bank loaned 60 bilion to the treasury.Its this money that will pay the 7 bilion NPL.
*Shs 1 bilion will be recovered from the miling company of Tss which kcb seized one and a half weeks ago.
That will make a total of 8 bilion recovered npl by end year.
Going by these facts,FY 16 results will report a decrease of Npl from 32 bilion to 24 bilion.30% decrease.That means LLP will also decrease and the profits will increase!

Isnt that hearsay?? Will there be any new loans going bad??

Ebenyo
#32 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2016 11:53:05 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 2,016
Location: Kitale
obiero wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
I have started going through my copy of kcb HY 2016 results.
My preliminary observation is that things are going well to the right direction.
Q1 was definitely alarming as NPL increased by 30% from kshs 23 billion to kshs 30 bilion.
HY results indicates an increase of 8% from 30 bilion to 32 bilion.
I hope things stand that way till end year because of these
Good points to note:
*Shs 7 bilion will be recovered
from two contractors.They have been waiting for the treasury to pay them.
3 weeks ago,the chinese bank loaned 60 bilion to the treasury.Its this money that will pay the 7 bilion NPL.
*Shs 1 bilion will be recovered from the miling company of Tss which kcb seized one and a half weeks ago.
That will make a total of 8 bilion recovered npl by end year.
Going by these facts,FY 16 results will report a decrease of Npl from 32 bilion to 24 bilion.30% decrease.That means LLP will also decrease and the profits will increase!

Isnt that hearsay?? Will there be any new loans going bad??


hahaha! you are funny.I have made my comments based on the HY 2016 results.Thats not hearsay.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ebenyo
#33 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2016 8:56:11 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 2,016
Location: Kitale
The main reason for the rights issue was,to improve the ratio of total capital to total risk weighted assets.This was to meet the cbk minimum requirements as kcb ratio were thinning.
This has been met with
1.HY 2016 improved earnings
2.Cash saved from scrip shares issued instead of cash dividends.
So there is no need for rights issue now.I agree with the management on this.

There are interests from international financiers wiling to lend the company kshs 20 bilion.Oigara has not said what the money will be used for.Based on the earlier plans,the money could be used for:
1.Acquisition of chase bank
2.Entry into mozambique,Somalia and Ethiopia.
This is a right direction and therefore there is no cause of alarm.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
sparkly
#34 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2016 2:44:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Ebenyo wrote:
The main reason for the rights issue was,to improve the ratio of total capital to total risk weighted assets.This was to meet the cbk minimum requirements as kcb ratio were thinning.
This has been met with
1.HY 2016 improved earnings
2.Cash saved from scrip shares issued instead of cash dividends.
So there is no need for rights issue now.I agree with the management on this.

There are interests from international financiers wiling to lend the company kshs 20 bilion.Oigara has not said what the money will be used for.Based on the earlier plans,the money could be used for:
1.Acquisition of chase bank
2.Entry into mozambique,Somalia and Ethiopia.
This is a right direction and therefore there is no cause of alarm.


Announcing a rights then withdrawing is a sign of lack of management focus.
Life is short. Live passionately.
obiero
#35 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2016 3:49:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,223
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
The main reason for the rights issue was,to improve the ratio of total capital to total risk weighted assets.This was to meet the cbk minimum requirements as kcb ratio were thinning.
This has been met with
1.HY 2016 improved earnings
2.Cash saved from scrip shares issued instead of cash dividends.
So there is no need for rights issue now.I agree with the management on this.

There are interests from international financiers wiling to lend the company kshs 20 bilion.Oigara has not said what the money will be used for.Based on the earlier plans,the money could be used for:
1.Acquisition of chase bank
2.Entry into mozambique,Somalia and Ethiopia.
This is a right direction and therefore there is no cause of alarm.


Announcing a rights then withdrawing is a sign of lack of management focus.

Does this mean we shall go back to KES 60

Pesa Nane
#36 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2016 10:39:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
sparkly wrote:

Announcing a rights then withdrawing is a sign of lack of management focus.


On the flip side, I see a flexible & proactive management. They knew they had to shove up the ratios and skilfully kept their options open
1. tactically offer a scrip div to kill two birds with the same stone (save in lieu of cash div. + fund raise)
2. Upped their game to generate more profits
3. Shop and pick the cheapest funds (long term loan) without risking rights issue uncertainties + costs (there is wisdom in not tempting the bear unless cornered!! ask Fusion and their D-Reit smile )
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
Angelica _ann
#37 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2016 10:56:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,935
Pesa Nane wrote:
sparkly wrote:

Announcing a rights then withdrawing is a sign of lack of management focus.


On the flip side, I see a flexible & proactive management. They knew they had to shove up the ratios and skilfully kept their options open
1. tactically offer a scrip div to kill two birds with the same stone (save in lieu of cash div. + fund raise)
2. Upped their game to generate more profits
3. Shop and pick the cheapest funds (long term loan) without risking rights issue uncertainties + costs (there is wisdom in not tempting the bear unless cornered!! ask Fusion and their D-Reit smile )

Plus the interest rate capping law uncertainty. Management did great!!!
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
hisah
#38 Posted : Monday, August 08, 2016 7:20:58 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Angelica _ann wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
sparkly wrote:

Announcing a rights then withdrawing is a sign of lack of management focus.


On the flip side, I see a flexible & proactive management. They knew they had to shove up the ratios and skilfully kept their options open
1. tactically offer a scrip div to kill two birds with the same stone (save in lieu of cash div. + fund raise)
2. Upped their game to generate more profits
3. Shop and pick the cheapest funds (long term loan) without risking rights issue uncertainties + costs (there is wisdom in not tempting the bear unless cornered!! ask Fusion and their D-Reit smile )

Plus the interest rate capping law uncertainty. Management did great!!!

These options were all available, but they chose a rights issue. This management needs to be asked tough questions unless they can prove those options were not available. Mr market has cratered the price for a reason; NPLs etc...

Kengen, NBK rights drama... How did they fair in the market after rights being in limbo?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Ebenyo
#39 Posted : Thursday, August 11, 2016 12:27:54 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 2,016
Location: Kitale
HY 16 indicates total debt of the company stands at kshs 26,662,270,000.
Shareholders equity stands at kshs 90,955,968,000.
These represents a debt to equity ratio of 29%.
To me this is very healthy.
The management has decided to get another debt of kshs 20 bilion by end of next month.That will make the total debt to rise to kshs 46,662,270,000.
At the current shareholders equity,that will represents a 51% debt to equity ratio.But definitely according to the profit margins,i expect the shareholders equity to increase.This will mean a lower debt to equity ratio.
Since HY results were announced,there have been alot of worries and fear among wazuans.Based on the results alone,these are misguided fears.Maybe if there are other things beyond HY results which we dont know.Let those with the information share with us.
For example,we know the source of kshs 8 billion NPLs from the current total of kshs 32 bilion.Measures are in place to recover them.Next financial year,will be kshs 24 bilion if things stand this way.
I will only treat the following as hearsay,innuendo,maniac,phobic and propaganda unless proved documentary:
1.Going to election year,kcb will be raided by politicians for campaign cash.Being 24% owned by Gok,gives room for phobia.
2.The kshs 32 bilion npls,is as a result of arap samoei weekly harambees where he gives millions in donations.With Ngeny Biwott as board chair,this gives room for mania.
3.The 50/50 power sharing between Tna and urp is reflected in the board chair,Ngeny Biwott and chief financial officer Lawrence Kimathi.This gives room for propaganda.
We need to differentiate facts based on evidence and street talks.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ericsson
#40 Posted : Thursday, August 11, 2016 12:33:10 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,808
Location: NAIROBI
As we continue debating on the above matters as Ebenyo has posted;the counter is headed towards 40 per share.
Slowly and unknowingly
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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