enyands wrote:Realtreaty wrote:Will the BANKS bleed heavily? Were they involved in the debate to curb Interest rates and what was their take and say?
If they were doing genuine business what is their worry.
Was this the reason Barclays Africa decided to sell after enjoying unregulated period for for a Century?
Time Banks invested on the Land assets they have and enter into partnership with growing commercial and Industrial businesses.
At this point banks should forget about generating income from interest income. They should think of commissions income, deals they make with partners becausw what I'm seeing is a point where bank shares will be dead beat. Bear effect and also cbk stringent rules on npl and uncertainty about change of laws on lending interest.
Things are going to be very tough.
Banks will adapt. I believe banks shot themselves in the foot but they have been around [worldwide] for 100s of years...
1) By reducing lending to deadbeats [at higher interest rates] they will concentrate on stronger firms/borrowers. NPLs will drop. Staff numbers will drop.
*Better borrowers need less hand-holding, following up, letters, phone calls, etc. Then no need to involve lawyers, collection agents, etc*
2) Larger borrowers have more complex requirements BUT they also borrow larger amounts. The amount of work required to lend Shs 100mn is not that much more than Shs 1mn. The real margin can be maintained at a fair spread.
3) Technology: This will help bank reduce the rate of defaults by flagging bad borrowers. Or help avoid them altogether.
4) Often, T-Bills and T-Bonds yield more than CBR+4%. So banks have an outlet for their funds.
5) Assuming "current" accounts aren't affected by the 70% of T-Bill rate interest then banks will make Savings Accounts unattractive esp for smaller savers. Raise the minimum to 100,000/- and you (sadly) wipe out many small savers.
6) Lower NPLs = lower capital requirements as Basel 3 moves to Capital Requirements based on RISK of the loan book.
Finally, new products and fees. They will charge higher commitment fees, ATM charges, RTGS charges, custody fees, cheque cashing fees, etc.
Equity leads the rest of the banks in growing these other sources of income.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett