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directional forecast
karasinga
#201 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2016 7:42:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
scan
it this a possible bullish crab in the making?



your input plz

scan broke above the down trendline at 20.50, 1 trading day ago. This is a bullish sign. This down trendline, currently with an ending point at 19.88, may now provide downside support. Volume on the day of the breakout was quite light---98% below average. The most reliable breakouts are accompanied with increased volume. And with prices having only risen 0.00% since the breakout, the validity of the breakout is questionable.


update
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#202 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2016 8:53:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
Ericsson wrote:

For the past 10 Years we have had 3 classic bear markets in 2008/09, 2011/12 and the current one from 2015 to date.
The current market correction ranks 2nd after the 2008/09 bear market with the market currently down by 35.74% since its peak in 2015.
We are currently roughly 369 points away from the 2012 low and slightly over 1,000 points away from the severe 2008/09 crash.
An interesting point is that the current market correction has taken longer to recover than the previous two experienced in the last 10 years. 2008/09 crash lasted 307 days, 2011/12 correction lasted 396 days and the current correction has lasted for 515 days already and we do not know how much longer it will take till it rebounds.

The best performers year-to-date are only 5 counters i.e. Kenol Kobil, BAT Kenya, Safaricom, Sasini Tea and CFC Stanbic with a slight 1% uptick.
The worst performing counters on the NSE 20 Index year-to-date are led by Kenya Power & Lighting Company, Nation Media Group, and ScanGroup

sidelines until dust settles but will offer a good opportunity to ride long trend when reversal happens. in the meantime learning continues


BASED ON THE DATA I HAVE
counters outperforming NSE 20 SHARE INDEX, above 0.


counters underperforming NSE 20 SHARE INDEX, below 0


best performer CABLE share, worst performer NSE share
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
obiero
#203 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2016 10:46:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
@karasinga weka bolingo band ya KQ hapa, with full analysis please

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
Spikes
#204 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2016 10:52:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
obiero wrote:
@karasinga weka bolingo band ya KQ hapa, with full analysis please



It will be a shocker! Better you keep off charts!! They aren't part of your thinking!!! Cartoons are working in reverse motion to your KQ obsession!!!!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
karasinga
#205 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2016 11:19:14 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Spikes wrote:
obiero wrote:
@karasinga weka bolingo band ya KQ hapa, with full analysis please



It will be a shocker! Better you keep off charts!! They aren't part of your thinking!!! Cartoons are working in reverse motion to your KQ obsession!!!!

@ obiero. I am not a fan of bolingo but this is my take. hope this helps
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
hisah
#206 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2016 11:54:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
obiero wrote:
@karasinga weka bolingo band ya KQ hapa, with full analysis please



It will be a shocker! Better you keep off charts!! They aren't part of your thinking!!! Cartoons are working in reverse motion to your KQ obsession!!!!

@ obiero. I am not a fan of bolingo but this is my take. hope this helps

When the bad FY results were release last year the price tanked 24% that day. However, with the recent release of the FY results which were viewed worse than the previous FY result, the expected price crash didn't appear! The price closed around 8% down on that day. This is why I'm asking is a counter-trend coming up since the market is clearly changing behaviour?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Spikes
#207 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2016 12:07:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
obiero wrote:
@karasinga weka bolingo band ya KQ hapa, with full analysis please



It will be a shocker! Better you keep off charts!! They aren't part of your thinking!!! Cartoons are working in reverse motion to your KQ obsession!!!!

@ obiero. I am not a fan of bolingo but this is my take. hope this helps

When the bad FY results were release last year the price tanked 24% that day. However, with the recent release of the FY results which were viewed worse than the previous FY result, the expected price crash didn't appear! The price closed around 8% down on that day. This is why I'm asking is a counter-trend coming up since the market is clearly changing behaviour?




Even if Nguze is sacked today this stock must keep moving downwards! Not until a profound performance is announced several years to come. But for now bleeding continues na bado...
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
obiero
#208 Posted : Thursday, July 28, 2016 4:56:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,475
Location: nairobi
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
obiero wrote:
@karasinga weka bolingo band ya KQ hapa, with full analysis please



It will be a shocker! Better you keep off charts!! They aren't part of your thinking!!! Cartoons are working in reverse motion to your KQ obsession!!!!

@ obiero. I am not a fan of bolingo but this is my take. hope this helps

When the bad FY results were release last year the price tanked 24% that day. However, with the recent release of the FY results which were viewed worse than the previous FY result, the expected price crash didn't appear! The price closed around 8% down on that day. This is why I'm asking is a counter-trend coming up since the market is clearly changing behaviour?




Even if Nguze is sacked today this stock must keep moving downwards! Not until a profound performance is announced several years to come. But for now bleeding continues na bado...

@hisah @karasinga indeed this is good analysis. the shock effect had already been priced into the stock. Even the recent pilot strike did not move the stock price. I believe we have found a bottom hence my renewed vigor on this stock. H1 2016-2017 is all but 62 days away. The many years that @spikes has forecasted for a turnaround may turn into days. The capital restructure deal expected to overturn the negative equity position is in the final sign off stage

HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
karasinga
#209 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2016 6:00:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Ericsson wrote:

For the past 10 Years we have had 3 classic bear markets in 2008/09, 2011/12 and the current one from 2015 to date.
The current market correction ranks 2nd after the 2008/09 bear market with the market currently down by 35.74% since its peak in 2015.
We are currently roughly 369 points away from the 2012 low and slightly over 1,000 points away from the severe 2008/09 crash.
An interesting point is that the current market correction has taken longer to recover than the previous two experienced in the last 10 years. 2008/09 crash lasted 307 days, 2011/12 correction lasted 396 days and the current correction has lasted for 515 days already and we do not know how much longer it will take till it rebounds.

The best performers year-to-date are only 5 counters i.e. Kenol Kobil, BAT Kenya, Safaricom, Sasini Tea and CFC Stanbic with a slight 1% uptick.
The worst performing counters on the NSE 20 Index year-to-date are led by Kenya Power & Lighting Company, Nation Media Group, and ScanGroup

sidelines until dust settles but will offer a good opportunity to ride long trend when reversal happens. in the meantime learning continues


BASED ON THE DATA I HAVE
counters outperforming NSE 20 SHARE INDEX, above 0.


counters underperforming NSE 20 SHARE INDEX, below 0


best performer CABLE share, worst performer NSE share

1 week later
counters outperforming NSE 20 SHARE INDEX, above 0

counters underperforming NSE 20 SHARE INDEX, below 0

It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#210 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2016 11:07:05 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
is this the current information on kenol chart or its recycling of old information? ?


If you are not onbound, buy around 10.55
if on bound, sell targets
target 1 = 12
target 2 = 12.5-12.7
target 3 = 13.35
target 4(most ambitious target) = 14



As much as we respect charts because Math is a true knowledge that no reasonable man can doubt, follow your spirit. Do not jump into a counter without consulting your instincts plus other factors!


@ mlennyma. This is the current information(as by end of day 15th April 2016) including past predictions. it is a road we have traveled so far since first analysis.

as Spikes put it, consult your instincts.

now this doesn't give spikes any hope for his 8bob song,iam however expecting some action on kk towards book close and after positive AGM insights



Long termers are already locked in I don't think pockets of traders can trigger a rally as much as we head towards books closure. Expect sub 10/- before books closure and later on 8/-. No new info to speculate on at AGM if any. All good news is exhausted and captured in the current price.


lets see what Mr. Market has in store for us.

this will determine my faith in charts

watch keno closely. our targets still sound

kenol kobil is about to set a new high not because of charts but the companies positive news

hope i was not misunderstood. mlennyma,this post was to update us on the progress of the counter and had no intent to proof or say "because of charts" this is happening. with all due respect, if I need to explain this point further let me know.

and there we gosmile as at 1100hrs

watching closely.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#211 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2016 5:56:52 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
is this the current information on kenol chart or its recycling of old information? ?


If you are not onbound, buy around 10.55
if on bound, sell targets
target 1 = 12
target 2 = 12.5-12.7
target 3 = 13.35
target 4(most ambitious target) = 14



As much as we respect charts because Math is a true knowledge that no reasonable man can doubt, follow your spirit. Do not jump into a counter without consulting your instincts plus other factors!


@ mlennyma. This is the current information(as by end of day 15th April 2016) including past predictions. it is a road we have traveled so far since first analysis.

as Spikes put it, consult your instincts.

now this doesn't give spikes any hope for his 8bob song,iam however expecting some action on kk towards book close and after positive AGM insights



Long termers are already locked in I don't think pockets of traders can trigger a rally as much as we head towards books closure. Expect sub 10/- before books closure and later on 8/-. No new info to speculate on at AGM if any. All good news is exhausted and captured in the current price.


lets see what Mr. Market has in store for us.

this will determine my faith in charts

watch keno closely. our targets still sound

kenol kobil is about to set a new high not because of charts but the companies positive news

hope i was not misunderstood. mlennyma,this post was to update us on the progress of the counter and had no intent to proof or say "because of charts" this is happening. with all due respect, if I need to explain this point further let me know.

and there we gosmile as at 1100hrs

watching closely.

update by close of business with my thoughts on the chart
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#212 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2016 3:01:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
brayosylvan wrote:
I have narrowed down my trading to Kengen, Safaricom and Standard Chartered- I want to make my money as consistently as possible mostly by dividend and stock value changes. I need someone to analyze these 3 companies; I make 3 trades per year and my projection is at least a minimum of 50% return on investment. Who has the dates and the graphs for 2017? I know safaricom has already announced closing date in December- kindly some analysis on the other 2 stocks...

@brayosylvan. welcome to this thread. Here we show the market as it is and currently learning to live on the right side of the chart as opposed to the left. left side is the past and past is the past, but can help us know where we are. Those are excellent thoughts and requests you have there.... any one to provide more data in excel format(OHLC) and will work on it. baby steps....smile

@brayosylvan. let me try scom. i repeat, let me try. hope this helps
my thoughts on the chart. hope this pattern and other before are not forced. its lonely here wazuan. opinions plz


IF HOLDING SCOM WATCH CAREFULLY
targets almost being hit.below is a chart as on 26th july 2016 at 1340hrs with targets well labeled.

.

although PRZ seemed to hold, the pattern has been invalidated by:
1. strong volume candles to the PRZ
2. strong projection and momentum by the bulls.

my price action experience told me that perhaps price is not done moving higher and the other areas of confluence are probably going to be tested.

was i wrong? may be or maybe not.
why may be not ?
after current retracement to a low of 17.7,the price might still rally. but there was an expectation of price action to show exhaustion which was good and achieved.
why may be? and lesson learnt.
1. presence of a pattern doesnt result to overall reversal.
2. it is important to be aware of the context in which the pattern appears in terms of order flow.
3.As traders it's important not to follow price around, we want price to come into our zones. This is our confirmation that we might be in tune with price action and our analysis is correct.

WHY TO HOLD OR BUY SCOM
my thought on the chart


criticism and opinions are highly welcomed
learning continues. baby steps...
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#213 Posted : Monday, August 08, 2016 2:43:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
NMG
my thoughts on the chart. Potential ABCD pattern in the making.

I have my target at 110 then an overshoot at 100. IF NMG issue a profit warning during H1 and this actualizes to a loss instead of profit reduction, then the floor will continue breaking down.


watching closely
high confluence @ 111 (due to harmonics, fib ext. wave 5 Elliott's expectation and a major Gann level .)
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
karasinga
#214 Posted : Monday, August 08, 2016 9:49:56 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
is this the current information on kenol chart or its recycling of old information? ?


If you are not onbound, buy around 10.55
if on bound, sell targets
target 1 = 12
target 2 = 12.5-12.7
target 3 = 13.35
target 4(most ambitious target) = 14



As much as we respect charts because Math is a true knowledge that no reasonable man can doubt, follow your spirit. Do not jump into a counter without consulting your instincts plus other factors!


@ mlennyma. This is the current information(as by end of day 15th April 2016) including past predictions. it is a road we have traveled so far since first analysis.

as Spikes put it, consult your instincts.

now this doesn't give spikes any hope for his 8bob song,iam however expecting some action on kk towards book close and after positive AGM insights



Long termers are already locked in I don't think pockets of traders can trigger a rally as much as we head towards books closure. Expect sub 10/- before books closure and later on 8/-. No new info to speculate on at AGM if any. All good news is exhausted and captured in the current price.


lets see what Mr. Market has in store for us.

this will determine my faith in charts

watch keno closely. our targets still sound

kenol kobil is about to set a new high not because of charts but the companies positive news

hope i was not misunderstood. mlennyma,this post was to update us on the progress of the counter and had no intent to proof or say "because of charts" this is happening. with all due respect, if I need to explain this point further let me know.

and there we gosmile as at 1100hrs

watching closely.

update by close of business with my thoughts on the chart


trying bar by bar analysis.
already loving this, the green line doing its work.
what does this means to me?
1. bulls are sitting around this line no wonder bears attempt to push lower were strongly rejected.
2. might be getting in a range like/complex impulse wave due to recent rejection from both side of the market. but path of least resistance is up. look at the volume involved with each rejection.
3. might have a extended wave 5 with low of 10.6 today making wave 2 (in red) or
4. might have a termination diagonal. if this will be the case, then i will need to be careful with keno because that will indicate a strong quick thrust downward will follow back to 10.6
NOTE: we still have an alternative wave count in maroon(ABC)

It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Spikes
#215 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2016 5:21:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
is this the current information on kenol chart or its recycling of old information? ?


If you are not onbound, buy around 10.55
if on bound, sell targets
target 1 = 12
target 2 = 12.5-12.7
target 3 = 13.35
target 4(most ambitious target) = 14



As much as we respect charts because Math is a true knowledge that no reasonable man can doubt, follow your spirit. Do not jump into a counter without consulting your instincts plus other factors!


@ mlennyma. This is the current information(as by end of day 15th April 2016) including past predictions. it is a road we have traveled so far since first analysis.

as Spikes put it, consult your instincts.

now this doesn't give spikes any hope for his 8bob song,iam however expecting some action on kk towards book close and after positive AGM insights



Long termers are already locked in I don't think pockets of traders can trigger a rally as much as we head towards books closure. Expect sub 10/- before books closure and later on 8/-. No new info to speculate on at AGM if any. All good news is exhausted and captured in the current price.


lets see what Mr. Market has in store for us.

this will determine my faith in charts

watch keno closely. our targets still sound

kenol kobil is about to set a new high not because of charts but the companies positive news

hope i was not misunderstood. mlennyma,this post was to update us on the progress of the counter and had no intent to proof or say "because of charts" this is happening. with all due respect, if I need to explain this point further let me know.

and there we gosmile as at 1100hrs

watching closely.

update by close of business with my thoughts on the chart


trying bar by bar analysis.
already loving this, the green line doing its work.
what does this means to me?
1. bulls are sitting around this line no wonder bears attempt to push lower were strongly rejected.
2. might be getting in a range like/complex impulse wave due to recent rejection from both side of the market. but path of least resistance is up. look at the volume involved with each rejection.
3. might have a extended wave 5 with low of 10.6 today making wave 2 (in red) or
4. might have a termination diagonal. if this will be the case, then i will need to be careful with keno because that will indicate a strong quick thrust downward will follow back to 10.6
NOTE: we still have an alternative wave count in maroon(ABC)





I am of the opinion put forth by no.4 above.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
karasinga
#216 Posted : Tuesday, August 09, 2016 10:17:49 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
is this the current information on kenol chart or its recycling of old information? ?


If you are not onbound, buy around 10.55
if on bound, sell targets
target 1 = 12
target 2 = 12.5-12.7
target 3 = 13.35
target 4(most ambitious target) = 14



As much as we respect charts because Math is a true knowledge that no reasonable man can doubt, follow your spirit. Do not jump into a counter without consulting your instincts plus other factors!


@ mlennyma. This is the current information(as by end of day 15th April 2016) including past predictions. it is a road we have traveled so far since first analysis.

as Spikes put it, consult your instincts.

now this doesn't give spikes any hope for his 8bob song,iam however expecting some action on kk towards book close and after positive AGM insights



Long termers are already locked in I don't think pockets of traders can trigger a rally as much as we head towards books closure. Expect sub 10/- before books closure and later on 8/-. No new info to speculate on at AGM if any. All good news is exhausted and captured in the current price.


lets see what Mr. Market has in store for us.

this will determine my faith in charts

watch keno closely. our targets still sound

kenol kobil is about to set a new high not because of charts but the companies positive news

hope i was not misunderstood. mlennyma,this post was to update us on the progress of the counter and had no intent to proof or say "because of charts" this is happening. with all due respect, if I need to explain this point further let me know.

and there we gosmile as at 1100hrs

watching closely.

update by close of business with my thoughts on the chart


trying bar by bar analysis.
already loving this, the green line doing its work.
what does this means to me?
1. bulls are sitting around this line no wonder bears attempt to push lower were strongly rejected.
2. might be getting in a range like/complex impulse wave due to recent rejection from both side of the market. but path of least resistance is up. look at the volume involved with each rejection.
3. might have a extended wave 5 with low of 10.6 today making wave 2 (in red) or
4. might have a termination diagonal. if this will be the case, then i will need to be careful with keno because that will indicate a strong quick thrust downward will follow back to 10.6
NOTE: we still have an alternative wave count in maroon(ABC)





I am of the opinion put forth by no.4 above.

@spikes, your opinion is legitimate and can be a possibility. ie ABC to complete corrective wave 4.
in the mean time bar by bar analysis continues...
9th August 2016. spinning top formed. This confirms prior analysis made for the last two trading days.This demonstrates some indecision on the part of the bulls and the bears and would warrant watching for the next day’s price action.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
Cornelius Vanderbilt
#217 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 1:32:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/15/2015
Posts: 817
can you chartist/technical analysts post the long term chart of the NSE 20 SHARE INDEX.thanks
karasinga
#218 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 5:39:23 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
can you chartist/technical analysts post the long term chart of the NSE 20 SHARE INDEX.thanks

hope this helps.

It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
mufasa
#219 Posted : Wednesday, August 10, 2016 6:13:41 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 190
karasinga wrote:

hope this helps.



Am I correct to assume that wave three is not always the longest and the bear that follows wave five will settle around the region of wave four lows and not anywhere lower.

Looking at the chart, point B of 2012 is actually the lowest point of wave 4 that began in 2009 and as such we are now experiencing the last of wave 5.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
karasinga
#220 Posted : Thursday, August 11, 2016 8:22:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
is this the current information on kenol chart or its recycling of old information? ?


If you are not onbound, buy around 10.55
if on bound, sell targets
target 1 = 12
target 2 = 12.5-12.7
target 3 = 13.35
target 4(most ambitious target) = 14



As much as we respect charts because Math is a true knowledge that no reasonable man can doubt, follow your spirit. Do not jump into a counter without consulting your instincts plus other factors!


@ mlennyma. This is the current information(as by end of day 15th April 2016) including past predictions. it is a road we have traveled so far since first analysis.

as Spikes put it, consult your instincts.

now this doesn't give spikes any hope for his 8bob song,iam however expecting some action on kk towards book close and after positive AGM insights



Long termers are already locked in I don't think pockets of traders can trigger a rally as much as we head towards books closure. Expect sub 10/- before books closure and later on 8/-. No new info to speculate on at AGM if any. All good news is exhausted and captured in the current price.


lets see what Mr. Market has in store for us.

this will determine my faith in charts

watch keno closely. our targets still sound

kenol kobil is about to set a new high not because of charts but the companies positive news

hope i was not misunderstood. mlennyma,this post was to update us on the progress of the counter and had no intent to proof or say "because of charts" this is happening. with all due respect, if I need to explain this point further let me know.

and there we gosmile as at 1100hrs

watching closely.

update by close of business with my thoughts on the chart


trying bar by bar analysis.
already loving this, the green line doing its work.
what does this means to me?
1. bulls are sitting around this line no wonder bears attempt to push lower were strongly rejected.
2. might be getting in a range like/complex impulse wave due to recent rejection from both side of the market. but path of least resistance is up. look at the volume involved with each rejection.
3. might have a extended wave 5 with low of 10.6 today making wave 2 (in red) or
4. might have a termination diagonal. if this will be the case, then i will need to be careful with keno because that will indicate a strong quick thrust downward will follow back to 10.6
NOTE: we still have an alternative wave count in maroon(ABC)





I am of the opinion put forth by no.4 above.

@spikes, your opinion is legitimate and can be a possibility. ie ABC to complete corrective wave 4.
in the mean time bar by bar analysis continues...
9th August 2016. spinning top formed. This confirms prior analysis made for the last two trading days.This demonstrates some indecision on the part of the bulls and the bears and would warrant watching for the next day’s price action.


correction.
on 9th august, a black closing Marubozu formed. that indicated that sellers controlled the price action from the first trade to the last trade although on a small volume. The day opened and prices went slightly higher, forming an upper shadow. Then prices reversed direction moving below the opening level, and the decline continues all day ending with a closing price equal to the low of the day. The bears were very strong during that day except during the initial phase of the session.

on 10th august, a hammer formed. The price opened and started to trade lower. The bears were still in control. The bulls then stepped in. They started to bring the price back up towards the top of the trading range on high volume. This created a small body with a large lower shadow. This represents that the bears could not maintain control. The long lower shadow now has the bears questioning whether the decline is still intact. A higher open on 11th August would confirm that the bulls have taken control.
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