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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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karasinga wrote:mnandii wrote:kasibitta wrote:mnandii wrote:Schools are burning now. Most people( even theories) can't connect the burning of schools to the Stock Market. Yet, they are of the same causality. I did anticipate the decline in our stock market more than a year ago (see the very first post of this wazua.co.ke thread). Now the the NSE 20 share index is declining massively. I've also posted notes here on the Socionomic aspects of the declining social mood (as measured by the declining stock index). I also indicated that the fact of Universities being opened in almost every corner of Kenya, the winning by the Teachers Union of a tremendous increase in salary for teachers and the selling of a private school at an extremely high price marked the topping process in education matters. The bear market in education was the next logical expectation. Even now there is alot of interest in higher education but when the bear catches proper, then, expect education to be shunned. So, how do we connect the burning of schools to our stock market and then to society as a whole? Simple. The NSE 20 share Index is falling, meaning that negative social mood (the Index is sensitive to mood) is taking over at large degree. The youth respond quicker to changes in social mood (remember they set the trend in fashion for example) and that is why one of the negative consequence of a decline in social mood , i.e. the tendency to destroy (by burning) has manifested itself first in schools (where most youths can be found). This means that in Kenya, going forward, negative mood will entrench itself and the rest of society will also show the destructive impulses that the youth are exhibiting. I have argued here before that come 2017, and IF the the stock market will be shuttling to below 2000 levels (which I expect to happen) then the next General Elections will be bloody i.e far worse than the 2007 -2008 one. The beauty of socionomics is that you get to anticipate events before they happen and you can therefore prepare yourself adequately. Do read: -THE WAVE PRINCIPLE OF HUMAN SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR by ROBERT PRECHTER. -CONQUER THE CRASH by ROBERT PRECHTER. www.socionomics.net Thankyou.An interesting perspective to the current happenings.Always look forward to reading your posts.Keep them coming  Thanks and welcome. hi mnandii. welcome back. your opinion on this. my thoughts on the chart  If the index breaks below support structure 1 with conviction then support structure 2 will not be able to hold back the dam break. That means the bear extension will likely be similar to the GFC ulcers central ride to hell. This is why I suggested if we start breaking down that badly the market will be shutdown as the social mood becomes very chaotic threatening the social fabric. This coming election will see very many incumbents kicked out and a lot of political infighting. This is why I have been very bearish financials. Already the banks have been taken to the cleaners and more is coming! For insurance when politics boils over, that's the last thing you want to hold in your portfolio... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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The shaving carries on. A 7 point haircut on the NSE 20 to close at 3,468. @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/7/2012 Posts: 11,901
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:The shaving carries on. A 7 point haircut on the NSE 20 to close at 3,468. Some recovery in the offing!!! In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Angelica _ann wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:The shaving carries on. A 7 point haircut on the NSE 20 to close at 3,468. Some recovery in the offing!!! A temporary and weak recovery after the reprieve downward swing with a bang! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Spikes wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:The shaving carries on. A 7 point haircut on the NSE 20 to close at 3,468. Some recovery in the offing!!! A temporary and weak recovery after the reprieve downward swing with a bang! Really ? KCB seems to be losing the 32 support. Equity has rejected KES 40 Britam closes at 12..The downtrend just began. EABL,ARM.Bamburi and Safcom holding it.. This is a selective bear
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:MPs endorse Bill to cap the cost of your loanQuote:Kenyan legislators have passed a Bill that seeks to cap bank interest rates at not more than four per cent above the Central Bank Rate (CBR) in their latest attempt to arrest the runaway cost of borrowing.
Chief executives of commercial banks and other lending institutions will face a Sh1 million fine or imprisonment for a term of not less than one year or both if convicted of flouting the law.
The Bill, sponsored by Kiambu MP Jude Njomo, also pegs the minimum interest granted on a deposit held in interest earning accounts to at least 70 per cent of the base rate set and published by CBK.
The MPs also urged President Uhuru Kenyatta Wednesday to quickly assent to the Bill in order to protect Kenyans from high interest rates. Whoa!!! Berserk! NSE support is no where in sight! Never underestimate a cornered politician. Such a counter-productive move. Serious credit contraction in the pipeline. Banks will be pulverised by this one. In a general trend where the NIM was shrinking through normal market mechanics and the NPL's saga yet to be properly resolved...this pops up! shots being fired. smells bloody all over. word for word ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,050 Location: Nairobi
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Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that ‘Price is what you pay; value is what you get.’ Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down. - Warren Buffett The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble … We want to buy them when they’re on the operating table. - Warren Buffett The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything — you can wait for your pitch. - Warren Buffett Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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http://www.businessdaily...4566-n7gk1uz/index.html
This bill ain't getting signed after all. Business Daily wrote:
State House says President Uhuru Kenyatta has noted the concerns of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) and bankers as the country awaits his decision on a Bill capping bank interest rates.
State House spokesman Manoah Esipisu on Sunday said that Mr Kenyatta will also consult extensively before making a decision on whether to assent to the Bill or refer it back to Parliament.
The CBK and the Kenya Bankers Association have opposed the attempt by Parliament to cap interest rates, saying this will have adverse effects including promotion of informal lending channels like shylocks.
While he was the Finance minister, Mr Kenyatta in 2011 was opposed to a similar attempt by Parliament to cap interest rates saying that such legislation can have impact on other economic sectors Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Gatheuzi wrote:http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Uhuru-says-hras-noted-concerns-on-bid-to-cap-bank-lending-rates/539546-3324566-n7gk1uz/index.html This bill ain't getting signed after all. Business Daily wrote:
State House says President Uhuru Kenyatta has noted the concerns of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) and bankers as the country awaits his decision on a Bill capping bank interest rates.
State House spokesman Manoah Esipisu on Sunday said that Mr Kenyatta will also consult extensively before making a decision on whether to assent to the Bill or refer it back to Parliament.
The CBK and the Kenya Bankers Association have opposed the attempt by Parliament to cap interest rates, saying this will have adverse effects including promotion of informal lending channels like shylocks.
While he was the Finance minister, Mr Kenyatta in 2011 was opposed to a similar attempt by Parliament to cap interest rates saying that such legislation can have impact on other economic sectors The nse20, today at 3460.60, index smashing record after record downtrend as Safaricom at average kes 19.40 prints all time highs after highs! Be on a lookout there exists bottom out ambivalence that will leave many confused! Traders will find it hard to detect a rocket rally takeoff. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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A banking crisis is coming to KE, not even the best efforts by the governor will avert it. Illiquidity is any bank's worst nightmare. If all the means of liquidity provision are failing then there can only be one eventuality...we are yet to see the worst from the banking sector followed by a consolidation thereafter. http://www.businessdaily...324462-avjf3l/index.htmlThe main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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[quote=lochaz-index]A banking crisis is coming to KE, not even the best efforts by the governor will avert it. Illiquidity is any bank's worst nightmare. If all the means of liquidity provision are failing then there can only be one eventuality...we are yet to see the worst from the banking sector followed by a consolidation thereafter. http://www.businessdaily...24462-avjf3l/index.html[/quote] https://centralbank.go.k...pervision-annual-report
Non-Performing loans in the industry increased by 36% to Ksh. 147B in 2015  You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances. Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge. Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value. Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring. Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk. Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,472 Location: nairobi
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hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!! That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management..
HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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obiero wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!! That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management.. and third, capping of interest rate never sees the light of the day. many banks will find it more difficult to reign on cost after a enjoying lucrative lending rates. that law will be a socker. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,218 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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I asked here who is the chairman of KCB and no one understood my question. What are his qualifications? Was his appointment by merit or political, given elections are around the corner and somebody might be looking for Eazzyloan . Therein lies the answers to Mr.Market's spanking of this stock @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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obiero wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!! That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management.. I had the opportunity to go through Kcb's Q1 results...needless to say I was not impressed (I posted my thoughts here but I can't remember which thread) and neither has been Mr market so far. They have been pushing the envelope for quite a while especially on NPL's and this continues to haunt them after HY numbers. A worsening loan book and collaterals is a bad mix. The main threat however lies in a liquidity squeeze. If banks are not able to meet near term withdrawal demands and there is no effective liquidity provision mechanism, this is a ticking time bomb. Another bank collapse will not be taken kindly by the masses...a cascade of bank runs and more collapses. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,472 Location: nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:obiero wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:It would appear Mr market is not entirely convinced with some of the banks' performances.
Kcb at the current price of 32 has a trailing PER of about 4.6! That is some thorough beating. Whatever is getting discounted must be huge.
Save for Nbk (for obvious reasons) is there any other bank trading at such a multiple? If it slides any further it will get to par level versus its book value.
Still not convinced by their rescheduling of the rights issue and sudden about turn on Chase bank(after a less than transparent stint with Imperial bank). Plus their ratios and provisions are not exactly awe-inspiring.
Nic and Stanbic have the ignominy of trading at a discount to NAV - the position previously held by Nbk.
Despite all the above, banks are still churning out impressive numbers quarter after quarter. Something has to give here. This show is yet to come to an end. I see we have another fan questioning the kcb spectacular nosedive. Welcome to the bandwagon which also has vvs, sparkly, myself and I think two more fans.
What I like about this banking sector nosedive is that it'll reorganize itself to be more robust after this shaving episode. That means the return of the bulls will have sizable energy in equal measure to send bank stocks on a dizzy rally - 200% at least!! That will happen only if two things come to pass.. One, NPL reduction. Two, liquidity management.. I had the opportunity to go through Kcb's Q1 results...needless to say I was not impressed (I posted my thoughts here but I can't remember which thread) and neither has been Mr market so far. They have been pushing the envelope for quite a while especially on NPL's and this continues to haunt them after HY numbers. A worsening loan book and collaterals is a bad mix. The main threat however lies in a liquidity squeeze. If banks are not able to meet near term withdrawal demands and there is no effective liquidity provision mechanism, this is a ticking time bomb. Another bank collapse will not be taken kindly by the masses...a cascade of bank runs and more collapses. @lochaz-index right on the money with your arguments. further the business segment has adopted a wait and see for the interest rate movement plus 2017 approaches, terrible combination for lenders
HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,050 Location: Nairobi
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KCB is too big to fail meaning Njoroge will open the flood-gates for KCB. Any withdrawal will be met courtesy of CBK. That doesn't mean the brand and Balance Sheet will not be damaged. If there is a run on KCB which will be met by CBK pumping in liquidity... the brand will suffer. As is, I think KCB's customer service is crap but many parastatals use it as do their suppliers. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,472 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:KCB is too big to fail meaning Njoroge will open the flood-gates for KCB. Any withdrawal will be met courtesy of CBK. That doesn't mean the brand and Balance Sheet will not be damaged.
If there is a run on KCB which will be met by CBK pumping in liquidity... the brand will suffer. As is, I think KCB's customer service is crap but many parastatals use it as do their suppliers. A run on simba? Who has even predicted that?
HF 428,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 15,750 ABP 6.45
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