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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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Kausha wrote:@vvs been in the wilderness didn't know EPS 2/= is on the cards? too abitious meaning kitu 3billion profit "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:Kausha wrote:@vvs been in the wilderness didn't know EPS 2/= is on the cards? too abitious meaning kitu 3billion profit @Kausha - There's the AGM and then there's the 'after-AGM' discussion. The serious folks remain behind after the rest run to grab lunch packs. There was a free-flow of questions. At the 'After-AGM' Ohana said KK had a spectacular 1Q. Plus the debt, not eliminated, was reduced to 3.5bn-ish despite higher oil prices. I think KK has backed off the 'zero-debt by June 2016' claim made when oil was at $29. It's $50 now. KK sold off TZ and used to cash to pay down debt. DO said KK was losing at least $2m/year in TZ so that will be added back to PBT. All countries are profitable, after selling off TZ. Debt reduced across the board. Burundi & Rwanda (35% market share in each) are doing very well. Kenya -DO emphasized KK will only engage in profitable businesses. Jet-A1 sales coming back. KK doesn't sell to KQ unless it is in cash. So where does the 2/- come from? I took the 2015 EPS adjusted for gains from the TZ sale. 1) Savings from TZ of 200mn+ per year. 2) Savings from lower borrowings. 3) Increased sales/volumes = lower fixed cost/liter. DO said volumes, in 1Q, were up across all categories. The 'natural' growth in volumes is 4% pa. 4) Huge push for (profitable) LPG. 200,000 LPG tanks were at the port in April awaiting clearance. 5) An above-average 1Q. 6) Lease, not build, strategy for new stations. He said many former independents are leasing stations to KK since financing inventory is not easy for everyone. 7) New products especially Castrol oils will be blended locally. I think there has been a delay though. 8) OTS participation. DO described it as low-margin but low-risk. Financing isn't a problem with banks looking to lend to KK now that it's much healthier. 9) CAPEX allocated for refurbishing old stations. The 1.5bn HQ proposal has been ditched. @Miennyma - No problem. That's was my estimate as of (post-AGM) April. The 1H results should be out by end of August if history is a guide. I may change my tune after 1H results are out. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:Kausha wrote:@vvs been in the wilderness didn't know EPS 2/= is on the cards? too abitious meaning kitu 3billion profit @Kausha - There's the AGM and then there's the 'after-AGM' discussion. The serious folks remain behind after the rest run to grab lunch packs. There was a free-flow of questions. At the 'After-AGM' Ohana said KK had a spectacular 1Q. Plus the debt, not eliminated, was reduced to 3.5bn-ish despite higher oil prices. I think KK has backed off the 'zero-debt by June 2016' claim made when oil was at $29. It's $50 now. KK sold off TZ and used to cash to pay down debt. DO said KK was losing at least $2m/year in TZ so that will be added back to PBT. All countries are profitable, after selling off TZ. Debt reduced across the board. Burundi & Rwanda (35% market share in each) are doing very well. Kenya -DO emphasized KK will only engage in profitable businesses. Jet-A1 sales coming back. KK doesn't sell to KQ unless it is in cash. So where does the 2/- come from? I took the 2015 EPS adjusted for gains from the TZ sale. 1) Savings from TZ of 200mn+ per year. 2) Savings from lower borrowings. 3) Increased sales/volumes = lower fixed cost/liter. DO said volumes, in 1Q, were up across all categories. The 'natural' growth in volumes is 4% pa. 4) Huge push for (profitable) LPG. 200,000 LPG tanks were at the port in April awaiting clearance. 5) An above-average 1Q. 6) Lease, not build, strategy for new stations. He said many former independents are leasing stations to KK since financing inventory is not easy for everyone. 7) New products especially Castrol oils will be blended locally. I think there has been a delay though. 8) OTS participation. DO described it as low-margin but low-risk. Financing isn't a problem with banks looking to lend to KK now that it's much healthier. 9) CAPEX allocated for refurbishing old stations. The 1.5bn HQ proposal has been ditched. @Miennyma - No problem. That's was my estimate as of (post-AGM) April. The 1H results should be out by end of August if history is a guide. I may change my tune after 1H results are out. good.rental income is also boosting at south B mater petrol station they are almost completing a decent 1 floor rental facility "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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The most recently confirmed down trendline for kenokobil has an ending point currently at 10.52. Expect prices to have some difficulty rising above this trendline. A break above this trendline (particularly on heavy volume) would be a bullish sign It's not over until I winskype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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karasinga wrote:The most recently confirmed down trendline for kenokobil has an ending point currently at 10.52. Expect prices to have some difficulty rising above this trendline. A break above this trendline (particularly on heavy volume) would be a bullish sign The latest nse happenings is shaking my optimism on all stocks day by day, "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,321
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mlennyma wrote:The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids  Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids  Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon. total will keep kk upward thrust capped for now. substitute good made more affordable. ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Where are the pendulum swingers. I said it's near impossible to make money by predicting stocks. This one refused to follow the old 8.00 to 10.00 trend during this year. I see scope of sub 10 maybe even sub 9. Not because of bad performance but the bear raging in the NSE The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Where are the pendulum swingers. I said it's near impossible to make money by predicting stocks. This one refused to follow the old 8.00 to 10.00 trend during this year. I see scope of sub 10 maybe even sub 9. Not because of bad performance but the bear raging in the NSE Sigh, lack of cash not will is my enemy! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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muandiwambeu wrote:Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids  Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon. total will keep kk upward thrust capped for now. substitute good made more affordable. A lemon can never substitute an orange "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids  Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon. yes 20cts it will be plus 30cts final,iam looking at their gas cylinders all over once you return an old one its never getting out old but newly painted and well maintained meaning pesa iko "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2011 Posts: 391 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids  Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon. yes 20cts it will be plus 30cts final,iam looking at their gas cylinders all over once you return an old one its never getting out old but newly painted and well maintained meaning pesa iko Dear Sir/Madam This warrant is for the interim dividend on ordinary shares of KES 0.25 each ..... "You can't have everything. Where would you put it?" - Stephen Wright
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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Speculz wrote:mlennyma wrote:Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids  Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon. yes 20cts it will be plus 30cts final,iam looking at their gas cylinders all over once you return an old one its never getting out old but newly painted and well maintained meaning pesa iko Dear Sir/Madam This warrant is for the interim dividend on ordinary shares of KES 0.25 each ..... Yes,this email is already in my inbox but why are they calling it interim and it was final? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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mlennyma wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:The absence of speculators in this counter has made the sellers very firm on the asking price,I would have expected speculators to have slipped it below 10 by now,you can imagine upto noon no seller has agreed to the available bids  Expecting an interim dvdd this August probably 20 cents and a pick towards 13 soon. total will keep kk upward thrust capped for now. substitute good made more affordable. A lemon can never substitute an orange ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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Dear Wazuan, please fill up at KK. Unlike KQ, we do not get tax breaks, subsidies or bailout money. Thank you from KK shareholders. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,571 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Dear Wazuan, please fill up at KK. Unlike KQ, we do not get tax breaks, subsidies or bailout money. Thank you from KK shareholders. :) :) COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Dear Wazuan, please fill up at KK. Unlike KQ, we do not get tax breaks, subsidies or bailout money. Thank you from KK shareholders. :) :) Obiero brother just Suck it up ..I think the more you pick fights on defense of kq the more you are made fun of.if I'm you I'll do it differently . I'll go under ,change my name to the ones you used to use before and come back .a user name like winder sounds ok though only vvs and me know that is you . If you continue fighting then you are exposing the fissure in your hidden wound
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,571 Location: nairobi
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enyands wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Dear Wazuan, please fill up at KK. Unlike KQ, we do not get tax breaks, subsidies or bailout money. Thank you from KK shareholders. :) :) Obiero brother just Suck it up ..I think the more you pick fights on defense of kq the more you are made fun of.if I'm you I'll do it differently . I'll go under ,change my name to the ones you used to use before and come back .a user name like winder sounds ok though only vvs and me know that is you . If you continue fighting then you are exposing the fissure in your hidden wound I got tough skin @enyands.. No wounds here. Plus I love the thrills of social media COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/4/2016 Posts: 1,997 Location: Kitale
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enyands wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Dear Wazuan, please fill up at KK. Unlike KQ, we do not get tax breaks, subsidies or bailout money. Thank you from KK shareholders. :) :) Obiero brother just Suck it up ..I think the more you pick fights on defense of kq the more you are made fun of.if I'm you I'll do it differently . I'll go under ,change my name to the ones you used to use before and come back .a user name like winder sounds ok though only vvs and me know that is you . If you continue fighting then you are exposing the fissure in your hidden wound i agree with u enyands.Hii mchezo ya KQ na watu wake wapotelee mbali kabisa.some of us here we have little children to plan for their future.We dont have time to waste on cat and mouse games.Like for example myself,Im planning to achieve two things in NSE: 1.To pay for my daughter school fees 2.To buy two acres of land. Im here to learn from like minded people who have goals to achieve in life.I will now try to avoid jokers,pretenders and players.Shetani ashindwe! Towards the goal of financial freedom
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