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watesh
#121 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2016 11:09:42 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 992
Location: Kenya
PKoli wrote:
watesh wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
heri wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
heri wrote:
i have been waiting for Safaricom below 14 bob and it seems it will not come down. Am tempted to buy at current prices

stocks are recovering very fast when they tend to give in to the bear, i think its tricky to wait and buy at the bottom


Since this is one stock i want in my portifolio i will commence buying in small amounts


Wacha wewe. I'm waiting for it at around 10.00.
It's not the only stock if it refuses to come down it can stay, but I ain't paying a pe of 20

may be its also saying you are not the only investorsmile


He he. We're both playing hard ball


There are other cheaper blue chips like Simba and Memba.


yep. Simba ive been picking whenever it dips below 40.00. Member im chilling out for 33.00 even if its forever.


Am also starting to accumulate Memba. It is a good investment at the following fundamentals: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (8.1;4.5%;4.78%;29.24%; 39.3%).

Superior investment to Simba at: PE; DY;RoA; RoE; Revenue Growth (6.7; 4.35%; 4.49%; 26.2%; 26.8%)


You make a good arguement elder. When did dividend yield of member catch up to kcb that one passed me by


Got the data from the Reuters FT website. Correct me if this is not the case.


At 40.00 which they are both currently trading.

equity dividend yeild- (1.80 sh) 4.5%
KCB dividend yeild- (2.00 sh) 5.0%


Thanks. Both are good investments, though Equity is more efficient in using its assets and capital.

KCB dominates Kenya and SS in terms of profits..Member outgrows KCB in Ug, Tz and Rwanda plus it has Procredit in its account and from what i have researched its expanding so far averaging a new branch per month together with agencies. Another advantage Member has is high volume of pple who together increase transactional income from so many transactions. Non interest income is more stable than interest income tht CBK really wants to trim.

I would like to look at Uganda numbers for member. Most of my friends in Ug are for Simba. Member has been generally quiet in the Uganda market. During my two year stay in Ug, hardly anyone mentions member.

Thats interesting, James Mwangi also said Ug was his biggest failure but from the numbers in Q3 they are both at PBT of Ksh0.2bn in UG with Member almost doubling its profits. I remember reading an avalanche of bad debts in UG for Member thanks to the bad books from the acquisition, maybe its this being solved leading to the high numbers.
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VituVingiSana
#122 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2016 11:44:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Equity acquired Uganda Microfinance which had a HUGE bad loan book. It took 2 years to bring it under control. Equity took write-offs and re-named it to Equity Uganda.

Uganda is a tough market for lenders with very high level of defaults and high interest rates. JM said that many Ugandans [just like Tanzanians] look at loans as GIFTS/GRANTS not as 'loans' ... Apparently, UG courts are even worse than KE courts so a defaulter can drag a case on for years.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#123 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2016 11:51:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Equity acquired Uganda Microfinance which had a HUGE bad loan book. It took 2 years to bring it under control. Equity took write-offs and re-named it to Equity Uganda.

Uganda is a tough market for lenders with very high level of defaults and high interest rates. JM said that many Ugandans [just like Tanzanians] look at loans as GIFTS/GRANTS not as 'loans' ... Apparently, UG courts are even worse than KE courts so a defaulter can drag a case on for years.


This is why TZ, UG will always lag Kenya in economic development. I guess "thanks" to our man eat man society.

I remember REA vipingo way before take over complaining that they could not get labourers to work on their farms in TZ despite raising salaries...
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana
#124 Posted : Wednesday, February 17, 2016 12:50:52 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Equity acquired Uganda Microfinance which had a HUGE bad loan book. It took 2 years to bring it under control. Equity took write-offs and re-named it to Equity Uganda.

Uganda is a tough market for lenders with very high level of defaults and high interest rates. JM said that many Ugandans [just like Tanzanians] look at loans as GIFTS/GRANTS not as 'loans' ... Apparently, UG courts are even worse than KE courts so a defaulter can drag a case on for years.


This is why TZ, UG will always lag Kenya in economic development. I guess "thanks" to our man eat man society.

I remember REA vipingo way before take over complaining that they could not get labourers to work on their farms in TZ despite raising salaries...

I met a TZ (listed) bank CEO who told me that they lend mostly to civil servants on a check-off system. They tried lending to small traders [emulating Equity] and lost their shirt when these 'traders' disappeared when it came time to make repayments!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#125 Posted : Monday, June 27, 2016 11:30:29 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Museveni wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
The bear is upon us! Emotions play a significant role in choosing what to buy and at what price. We all know the temptation to bottom fish to get the lowest prices, but its difficult to achieve.

Then there's the pain of being left by a share after a failed bottom fishing manoeuvre.

In light of this I've come up with a systematic way of buying this time round.
Using a P|E range of between 7-5.5 and EPS of 2014 or 2013 where necessary. Here is MY wishlist. There are many other good shares, ill be sticking with these for now.

STOCK EPS TARGET PRICE PE 5.5-7 CURRENT PRICE

EQUITY 4.63 25-33 39.25
KCB 5.63 30-40 46.00
NIC 7.07 38-49 49.00
NSE 2.13 12-15 20.00
DTB 21.92 120-154 204.00
HFCK 2.75 15-20 21.50

JUBILEE 48 264-340 560.00
PAN AFRICA 6.05 33-43 67.00

SAFARICOM 0.8 8-10(10-12 PE) 14.00
NATION 13.1 72-100 (unlikely) 184.00
TPS SERENA 3.45 20-25 (2013 EPS) 33.00

BAMBURI 9.80 98-130 154.00
KENOL KOBIL 0.74 5-7 (6.7-9.5 PE) 8.50
EABL 11.31 113- 170(10-15 PE) 295.00
ARM 3.01 30-45 61.00
BAT 42.55 300-450 741.00
CROWN PAINTS 3.01 17-21 62.00
FLAME TREE 0.99 6-7 7.50
BOC 11.76 65-85 133.00


This list is becoming more relevant everyday. The price in green was in August 2015. The list is holding well despite the bear biting deeply. Planting season this is
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Othelo
#126 Posted : Thursday, July 14, 2016 11:13:38 AM
Rank: User

Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
By the look of things, we are getting there. After BREXIT, now we need Trump smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
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mlennyma
#127 Posted : Thursday, July 14, 2016 11:30:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Look at NIC now gearing to lose the 35 handle
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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muandiwambeu
#128 Posted : Thursday, July 14, 2016 1:25:23 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/28/2015
Posts: 1,247
mlennyma wrote:
Look at NIC now gearing to lose the 35 handle

my keen eye blinking now, I need some substance to dissuade me from loosing focus. wao
,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Aguytrying
#129 Posted : Thursday, July 14, 2016 1:32:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
muandiwambeu wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Look at NIC now gearing to lose the 35 handle

my keen eye blinking now, I need some substance to dissuade me from loosing focus. wao


The options are so many thank God I have all the info I need.
I have since raised equity buy maximum price to 37.00 from yesterday and today I see equity is about to break lower. My eye tells me that.

The wish list, which looked too ambitious last year has stood the test of time. I've been buying and will continue. With equity the apple of my eye
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#130 Posted : Thursday, July 14, 2016 1:57:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
muandiwambeu wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Look at NIC now gearing to lose the 35 handle

my keen eye blinking now, I need some substance to dissuade me from loosing focus. wao


The options are so many thank God I have all the info I need.
I have since raised equity buy maximum price to 37.00 from yesterday and today I see equity is about to break lower. My eye tells me that.

The wish list, which looked too ambitious last year has stood the test of time. I've been buying and will continue. With equity the apple of my eye

lets plant in such a way that we will not need to plant again when the fortune comes,sad if the market has already trapped your capital. ....any culprits poleni
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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