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Mumias sugar prospects
marketHEAD
#11 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 12:39:27 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 1/26/2010
Posts: 35
Location: nairobi
possibility of the stock hitting 16 - 17 bob by july is high i think, considering the year ends june 30
Success is 20 percent skills and 80 percent strategy.
cnn
#12 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 1:18:33 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
Half year EPS,.68.A better second half and full year EPS 1.4.Knock off 30% from that in biological assets gains to be left with earnings derived from operations.That gives a full year PE of 11.5 at current prices and a dividend yield of 3.5%.So unless the market is factoring possible acquisitions it is getting expensive but that is just me and hey its a bulls market.
PKoli
#13 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 1:25:24 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@cnn.

Have you factored in proceeds from the Co-gen plant. Better revenues expected in the 2nd half since 1st half they had a lot of operational challenges. I also thought they received an upward tariff revision a few months ago.
Njung'e
#14 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 1:32:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
pkoli,
You are saying things the other way round.First half operations were near perfect while in the second half,rain has been a serious challenge.I guess they could be off target by kindu 10K metric tonnes while sugar prices are coming down.ther isn't so much to factor in from C-gen given the heavy penalties they are incurring from KPLC....my two mang'otore.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
PKoli
#15 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 1:51:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
@Njunge

Thanks for your corrections. I think the challenges should be from the factory aspect of the cane. In the 1st half they had some issues with the Co-gen plant which they rectified.

They do not suffer any penalties from the Co-gen plant since the power purchase agreement is based on energy and not plant availability. The more energy they send to the grid the more money they get.

Any how a p/e of 10 is good for Mumias
guru267
#16 Posted : Tuesday, April 20, 2010 2:56:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
guys the market is factoring in a number of things including the $300million acquisiton spree starting with Nzoia and the increase of the very high margin (80%) power generation capacity to 50MW from 38MW by next year... institutions are on a buying frenzy on this counter because it is CHEAP!!

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Deuteronomy 4:16
Njung'e
#17 Posted : Wednesday, April 21, 2010 10:51:07 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
@Pkoli,
You may need to check your facts once more.The PPA is based on plant availability.
@Jguru,
50Mw next year??...I highly doubt.What i know fo dead is that ethanol production might be possible by Sept 2011.An increase in power production is only possible by two means.modifying the current mills turbines to VF drives and thus conserving on steam....or...increasing the milling capacity and therfore,bagasse output.The second option is most viable but long term while the first one is a factor of efficieny rather than "generation".
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
Njung'e
#18 Posted : Wednesday, April 21, 2010 11:52:48 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
Ooops!!....up close to 9% today.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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