Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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S.Mutaga III wrote:sparkly wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:sparkly wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:MaichBlack wrote:sparkly wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:Aguytrying wrote:S.Mutaga III wrote:sparkly wrote:Ebenyo wrote:nashx wrote:[quote=S.Mutaga III]I personally dont think we have hit rock bottom yet. I will wait out and strike when the iron is hot, right before or during the elections...I dont expect any meaningful gains on the index before the elections are over, but I might be wrong. Hope you held on to those KenyaRe shares...coz we are smiling and hope to smile till Ksh 36 is reached i would love to enter kenyaRe at 17.00. What's the magic with 17? They were sub 10 just the other day. I am currently not invested in stocks. I believe they will tie up my cash for a whole year before the elections. The best performing stock YTD is NSE at 30% which is still not attractive enough considering the risks in a bear market, hence my decision to stay away from stocks. There's one big flaw with your assumption. You can't tell whether stocks will be lowest just before the elections..Remember what happened to stocks the year before the last elections? It's risky to time an event like that. You would rather buy when your price targets are breached. My 2 cents My price targets have not been reached. That is my main reason. The margin of safety is not good enough for me right now, since I plan on making at least five-fold returns in four years. Stocks are high risk investments, so I expect a high reward if I buy at the right prices. That's a great plan 5 fold in 4 yrs, that's close to 100% CAGR! Name one single stock likely to give such returns. I would also want to know the stocks and target purchase and sale price. Things like KCB BP: 30/= SP: 150/= (Actually, to get five fold RETURNS you have to sell at 180/= having bought at 30/=) we see which is more UNrealialistic than the one. Check stock performance for Safaricom between 31st Dec 2011 and 31st Dec 2015. Achieving a fivefold return is possible, and even easier if you play the market and know what you are doing. Actually, it is harder if you stick with one counter for the whole period. The logic here is that good stocks dont take off at the same time and at the same speed, so you can compound more easily. Of course it's possible and it happens. What we are questioning is your ability to pick the 1-5 stocks that will deliver 5 fold return. See 10 best performers between 2005 and 2015 per hoover below RETURN (12.2005 – 12.2015)* 1. Limuru Tea 1158.0% 2. Jubilee Holdings 743.6% 3. Centum Investment 676.3% 4. Diamond Trust Bank 663.9% 5. Kakuzi 560.4% 6. ARM Cement 425.6% 7. Crown Paints 381.5% 8. Equity Bank 314.5% 9. KCB Bank 301.1% 10. BAT Kenya 284.8% You still dont get it. If you want a fivefold return in four years or five, you have to play the market. One single stock will not make such returns unless you are lucky. I already explained that the rationale behind this argument is that:- - Value stocks take off at different speeds and at different times, enabling you to take full advantage of many counters within that time frame. - Compounding. Compounding. Compounding. You know the power of compounding returns. A 50% per year return, compounded for four years will give you a fivefold return. Basically, if you invest 1000 and compound at the rate of 50% return annually, you will have over 5000 in your portfolio value after 4 years. 50% per annum is a conservative estimate for a professional in a bull market. If you think it is impossible, here is a thread I posted in 2014. I made a return of 93% return in one year by playing the market. It was a bull market. That is why I am saying that 50% return per year on average is a conservative estimate. http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...px?g=posts&m=615665[/quote] 50% pa is conservative... whatever you are smoking is lethal. 50% per annum is conservative in a bull market...but it is a matter of perspective and your level of expertise. We are still waiting for the list of winners per your strategy. Life is short. Live passionately.
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