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Flame Tree Group Holdings for long term
Danster
#1 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 10:06:52 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/23/2015
Posts: 12
Is FTGH a good buy under GEMS considering their expansion plans and projected growth?smile


http://www.rich.co.ke/me...030th%20June%202015.pdf

http://www.rich.co.ke/me...e%20Trading%20Update.pdf
Aguytrying
#2 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 1:04:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
[quote=Danster]Is FTGH a good buy under GEMS considering their expansion plans and projected growth?smile


http://www.rich.co.ke/me...030th%20June%202015.pdf

http://www.rich.co.ke/me...%20Trading%20Update.pdf[/quote]

Yes! This one is on my radar for long long term. Hoping 6.00 prints again.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 4:43:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
[quote=Danster]Is FTGH a good buy under GEMS considering their expansion plans and projected growth?smile


http://www.rich.co.ke/me...030th%20June%202015.pdf

http://www.rich.co.ke/me...%20Trading%20Update.pdf[/quote]

Yes! This one is on my radar for long long term. Hoping 6.00 prints again.

I like it but like @Aguy at a lower price.
1) The CEO owns 80%.
2) He did a private placement to raise funds to expand and pay down debt instead of cashing out.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#4 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 8:34:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
[quote=Danster]Is FTGH a good buy under GEMS considering their expansion plans and projected growth?smile


http://www.rich.co.ke/me...030th%20June%202015.pdf

http://www.rich.co.ke/me...%20Trading%20Update.pdf[/quote]

Yes! This one is on my radar for long long term. Hoping 6.00 prints again.

I like it but like @Aguy at a lower price.
1) The CEO owns 80%.
2) He did a private placement to raise funds to expand and pay down debt instead of cashing out.


It passes the first test of management... For now. This could be the next ARM/ scan coz of the serious anchor shareholder.

@VVS. On pe it's cheap coz eps is almost 1.00 but on NAV it's not cheap. NAV in region of 4-5 as per my last calculations.

I find the share to have momentum, it can shoot up very fast even touching upper daily limits.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mlennyma
#5 Posted : Wednesday, January 06, 2016 9:14:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
[quote=Danster]Is FTGH a good buy under GEMS considering their expansion plans and projected growth?smile


http://www.rich.co.ke/me...030th%20June%202015.pdf

http://www.rich.co.ke/me...%20Trading%20Update.pdf[/quote]

Yes! This one is on my radar for long long term. Hoping 6.00 prints again.

I like it but like @Aguy at a lower price.
1) The CEO owns 80%.
2) He did a private placement to raise funds to expand and pay down debt instead of cashing out.


It passes the first test of management... For now. This could be the next ARM/ scan coz of the serious anchor shareholder.

@VVS. On pe it's cheap coz eps is almost 1.00 but on NAV it's not cheap. NAV in region of 4-5 as per my last calculations.

I find the share to have momentum, it can shoot up very fast even touching upper daily limits.

this man started his company from scratches i saw him tell the story and cant let anyone messup with his empire as long as he lives
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Thursday, January 07, 2016 1:19:08 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
[quote=Danster]Is FTGH a good buy under GEMS considering their expansion plans and projected growth?smile


http://www.rich.co.ke/me...030th%20June%202015.pdf

http://www.rich.co.ke/me...%20Trading%20Update.pdf[/quote]

Yes! This one is on my radar for long long term. Hoping 6.00 prints again.

I like it but like @Aguy at a lower price.
1) The CEO owns 80%.
2) He did a private placement to raise funds to expand and pay down debt instead of cashing out.


It passes the first test of management... For now. This could be the next ARM/ scan coz of the serious anchor shareholder.

@VVS. On pe it's cheap coz eps is almost 1.00 but on NAV it's not cheap. NAV in region of 4-5 as per my last calculations. A P/B of 1.5 isn't bad at all. Though we have to be careful when assessing NAV for a manufacturing firm when the assets could be worth very little if sold as scrap!

I find the share to have momentum, it can shoot up very fast even touching upper daily limits.

Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Mangs
#7 Posted : Wednesday, May 04, 2016 9:52:35 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 31
A brief read on FTGH; http://www.mangsblog.com/?p=13
Danster
#8 Posted : Wednesday, May 04, 2016 11:04:22 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/23/2015
Posts: 12
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Wednesday, May 04, 2016 12:15:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
[quote=Danster]Analysis according to Rich

http://www.rich.co.ke/rcdata/company.php?i=NjY%3D[/quote]

These analysis are mostly useless.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#10 Posted : Wednesday, May 04, 2016 4:51:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
From a TA perspective, this counter is constructive. When the bull returns this one will easily float up.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Mangs
#11 Posted : Friday, June 10, 2016 2:01:39 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 31
Before the bulls return however, the bears are busy making sure the bull effect will never be felt. The counter is now trading at -8.70% YTD with more potential for further erosion on share gains made after the results announcement.
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Friday, June 10, 2016 9:40:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
I like this firm. The CEO owns 80% or so. He doesn't seem the spendthrift type. I should look at adding some to my holdings.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Ebenyo
#13 Posted : Friday, June 10, 2016 10:20:02 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
VituVingiSana wrote:
I like this firm. The CEO owns 80% or so. He doesn't seem the spendthrift type. I should look at adding some to my holdings.


Is their main business selling spices and beauty products? how sustainable is that in the long run?
Towards the goal of financial freedom
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Saturday, June 11, 2016 7:30:31 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I like this firm. The CEO owns 80% or so. He doesn't seem the spendthrift type. I should look at adding some to my holdings.


Is their main business selling spices and beauty products? how sustainable is that in the long run?

I feel your pain. It is so difficult to read an Annual Report. So many words. So many pages filled with numbers. Why don't they provide us a summary in 12 type that fits on a single A4 page?


Is their main business selling spices and beauty products? It's a diversified 'conglomerate' with multiple businesses including making plastic tanks among other plastic products. They have a website but I know using google is a lot of work. And so many words. And pictures. Very tiring. I am sure you didn't even get to this sentence.

how sustainable is that in the long run? Doesn't that depend on the market? L'Oreal, etc. What do they sell? Have you googled Nestle? Or McCormick's?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Saturday, June 11, 2016 7:35:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I like this firm. The CEO owns 80% or so. He doesn't seem the spendthrift type. I should look at adding some to my holdings.


Is their main business selling spices and beauty products? how sustainable is that in the long run?

If only you were there to advise Vasco Da Gama before he set out to look for a route to India...

And advised Willoughby M. McCormick in 1889 not to bother... Clearly unsustainable for 116 years.

McCormick & Company is a Fortune 1000 company that manufactures spices, herbs, and flavorings for retail, commercial, and industrial markets.
Revenue US$ 4,123.4 million (2013)
Net income US$ 389.0 million (2013)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
koscielny
#16 Posted : Saturday, June 11, 2016 9:55:57 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/19/2016
Posts: 31
Location: Kenya
VituVingiSana wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
I like this firm. The CEO owns 80% or so. He doesn't seem the spendthrift type. I should look at adding some to my holdings.


Is their main business selling spices and beauty products? how sustainable is that in the long run?

I feel your pain. It is so difficult to read an Annual Report. So many words. So many pages filled with numbers. Why don't they provide us a summary in 12 type that fits on a single A4 page?


Is their main business selling spices and beauty products? It's a diversified 'conglomerate' with multiple businesses including making plastic tanks among other plastic products. They have a website but I know using google is a lot of work. And so many words. And pictures. Very tiring. I am sure you didn't even get to this sentence.

how sustainable is that in the long run? Doesn't that depend on the market? L'Oreal, etc. What do they sell? Have you googled Nestle? Or McCormick's?


Laughing out loudly correct me if im wrong but i think what @VVS is trying to say is simply watu wapende kusoma!
READ READ READ! no? ok
The Best is Yet to Come
Mangs
#17 Posted : Saturday, June 11, 2016 11:46:51 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/12/2014
Posts: 31
It's very difficult to bother with financial statements if your interest in the stock market is speculation in bid to make a quick buck. Most investors never bother to understand the basic business models of companies in the long term and that's why many sold off the likes of Safaricom shares a few years ago when they were at Ksh. 3 in spite of the fundamental health of the company. As far as FTGH goes, people just need to dig deeper to understand the business model. Only then shall we see the potential within.
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Sunday, June 12, 2016 1:27:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,098
Location: Nairobi
Mangs wrote:
It's very difficult to bother with financial statements if your interest in the stock market is speculation in bid to make a quick buck. Most investors never bother to understand the basic business models of companies in the long term and that's why many sold off the likes of Safaricom shares a few years ago when they were at Ksh. 3 in spite of the fundamental health of the company. As far as FTGH goes, people just need to dig deeper to understand the business model. Only then shall we see the potential within.
Applause Applause Applause [And management]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sparkly
#19 Posted : Sunday, June 12, 2016 6:47:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Mangs wrote:
It's very difficult to bother with financial statements if your interest in the stock market is speculation in bid to make a quick buck. Most investors never bother to understand the basic business models of companies in the long term and that's why many sold off the likes of Safaricom shares a few years ago when they were at Ksh. 3 in spite of the fundamental health of the company. As far as FTGH goes, people just need to dig deeper to understand the business model. Only then shall we see the potential within.
Applause Applause Applause [And management]


Looked at the Summary FS (not detailed enough) and my thoughts are;-
1. Good revenue growth
2. Positive cashflows
3. Debt seems well managed with good Debt/Equity ratio, Quick ratio and Interest coverage ratio.
4. Dealing in basic consumer products. Ready market in a growing population.

My concerns -
1. Still a young company
2. Concentrated ownership and management, corporate governance and transparency likely to be an issue
3. Growth by leveraged acquisitions. Listed entity is an holding company. company is growing by acquiring other firms as opposed to organic growth and brand development. Firms that grow by acquisitions have a tendency of overestimating the synergies of acquisition. One acquisition gone wrong can wipe out prior gains.
4. Unclear strategy, whether going for mass market or niche products. For now, it looks like the former. That market depends on volume and can get quite crowded.

My verdict:
It's a speculative buy for quick capital gains.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Aguytrying
#20 Posted : Sunday, June 12, 2016 11:39:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Aguytrying wrote:
[quote=Danster]Is FTGH a good buy under GEMS considering their expansion plans and projected growth?smile


http://www.rich.co.ke/me...030th%20June%202015.pdf

http://www.rich.co.ke/me...%20Trading%20Update.pdf[/quote]

Yes! This one is on my radar for long long term. Hoping 6.00 prints again.


It's back to 6.00 after a long time. There have been several acquisitions since listing, till some are forgetting the mother business roto tanks.

I need to dig into this year's annual report. Need to understand the dividend freeze this year. Anything below 6.00 is a bonus trust me.

Problem, so many other shares falling to good prices, but this share like I've said before when market recovers will FLY
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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