wazua Thu, Mar 19, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

8 Pages<1234>»
NBK- a junk stock?
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
Kaffir
#11 Posted : Friday, April 16, 2010 7:47:03 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/8/2008
Posts: 77
This stock is going to kill people. Volumes are higher than average, at a price higher than the fundamentals can support. Maybe some chaps have insider information that we dont have. For some of us, our risk appetite isnt that high!
Back to top
  |
subaru
#12 Posted : Saturday, April 17, 2010 4:37:10 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/15/2010
Posts: 391
Location: nairobie
i agree with u @ kaffir about the risk appetite but may be something is cookin
Back to top
  |
guru267
#13 Posted : Monday, April 19, 2010 8:43:56 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
the price rise might be as a result of the market anticipating NSSF having its way in the conversion...

http://www.theeastafrica...2/-/wau96xz/-/index.html
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Back to top
  |
ProverB
#14 Posted : Monday, April 19, 2010 8:49:13 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
[quote=guru267]the price rise might be as a result of the market anticipating NSSF having its way in the conversion...

http://www.theeastafrica.../-/wau96xz/-/index.html[/quote]

for someone strictly long term...guru..you weigh too much on shortterm variables. How does nssf or shareholding structure affect bottomline? or share value?..
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Back to top
WWW
  |
MaichBlack
#15 Posted : Monday, April 19, 2010 9:03:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
Kaffir wrote:
This stock is going to kill people. Volumes are higher than average, at a price higher than the fundamentals can support.


@Kaffir - I can't agree with you more. Traders might make money from this stock but any investor buying into it at the current prices either has inside information or is a serious gambler!!

The current price has factored in the best case scenario of the shares conversion/privatization tussle. And things could go terribly wrong! This is a classical case of high risk - low return. Even a sane gambler wouldn't like to find himself in such a situation.

No matter how things turn out, this is one stock I would rather observe from outside! There are better options out there.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Monday, April 19, 2010 9:06 AM | Reason: Not specified
MaichBlack
#16 Posted : Monday, April 19, 2010 9:28:09 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,836
Let me try some mathematics to put things in perspective.

Price before announcement/bonus shares: 40/=

Multiply that by 5 (no. [ratio] of share b4 split)
5 * 40 = 200/=

Current price (after bonus): 44/=

Multiply that by 7 (no. [ratio] of share after split)
7 * 44 = 308/=

Difference: 308 - 200 = 108

Now divide that by the original 5 shares:
108 / 5 = 21.6/=

Anyone buying the shares today at 44/= is actually paying a whooping kshs. 21.60/= more (50% more) on the 'original' shares.

Does NBKs performance justify this? Not really. Just compare their EPS (sub 6/=?) to the value above. Does forescast on future performance justify it? Nope! Unless there is some inside info I'm not privy to, I don't see this going very well for guys getting in now.

But then again, I could be wrong. Anyway, when I'm in doubt, I keep off. Better loose a 50% chance of making money (not much the way I see it) than get into a deal where you have a (very realistic) 50% chance of loosing it!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Back to top
  | | Edit by user: Monday, April 19, 2010 9:32 AM | Reason: Not specified
guru267
#17 Posted : Monday, April 19, 2010 9:48:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
ProverB wrote:
for someone strictly long term...guru..you weigh too much on shortterm variables. How does nssf or shareholding structure affect bottomline? or share value?..


@proverB these are not short term variables... share restructuring is somthething that affects long term value of the company's shares....

i was trying to look for a reason for the NBK price rise because after PWC's recommendation for the restructuring the price should've been falling since the proposed formula is going to destroy ordinary shareholder value...

but since NSSF plans to and is fighting the formula that was recommended then investors must be factoring in their success in the share price... but its a huge gamble...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Back to top
  |
ProverB
#18 Posted : Monday, April 19, 2010 10:13:30 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
@guru... Thanx.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Back to top
WWW
  |
FundamentAli
#19 Posted : Monday, April 19, 2010 10:27:09 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
Some small history here.

NBK made massive losses at some point due to non-performing loans. Majority shareholder is NSSF. GoK saved it from insolvency by pumping in money. Incidentally the majority of the non-performing loans were guaranteed by GoK. This also led to the push by World Bank to have these banks privatised to stop these kind of occurences. Question now is, does GoK have right to convert its loan to shares while it was responsible for the mess in the first place? Would it not end up with GoK increasing its stake which reverse its previous efforts to reduce its shareholding? Talk of having your cake and eating it.

I support the NBK board for deciding that GoK should not get any dividends. Check today's paper.
Back to top
  |
ProverB
#20 Posted : Monday, April 19, 2010 10:52:20 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
..makes you wonder with all other options in banking...why buy into NBK? its like bracing for an opportunity to curse the Government!!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
Back to top
WWW
  |
8 Pages<1234>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.