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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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VituVingiSana wrote:In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.
In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.
Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.
In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.
Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities. I agree with you on this one. Kerosene is dirty and so is diesel. Both should be highly taxed. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR? Yes, it is hardly much. But should have been a positive signal sentiment wise, resulting in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived. The fact that the market didn't even blink says a lot. Short-term thinking isn't it? Perhaps folks have become smarter and don't take actions that "result in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived" anymore. Systemic malaise is the culprit here and judging by the budget summary presented, things will move from bad to worse. Treasury is still powering through with an expansionary budget(elections in mind) on the back of dwindling revenue collections. There is a lot less wriggle room for increasing taxes and it almost always ends up being counterproductive in a downturn. That leaves debt(especially domestic) to do the heavy lifting. KES permitting, even a massive rate cut won't do the trick this time. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.
In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.
Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.
In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.
Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities. I agree with you on this one. Kerosene is dirty and so is diesel. Both should be highly taxed. The argument that taxing an item highly will discourage its usage is medieval and irrelevant in the 21st century. Government hiked taxes on polythene bags amid increased appetite for the wrappers by nearly all vendors countrywide. It is imperative to introduce laws that are environmentally friendly or implement alternative consumption of other energy sources in a manner rational to the populace and logical for quick uptake. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,384 Location: Nairobi
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murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.
In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.
Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.
In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.
Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities. I agree with you on this one. Kerosene is dirty and so is diesel. Both should be highly taxed. Diesel is highly taxed though about 10/- less than petrol in Kenya. It remains the fuel of choice for trucks/lorries even in the developed countries. I don't know enough about automotive/chemical engineering but there may be a reason why large vehicles use diesel. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,384 Location: Nairobi
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Spikes wrote:murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.
In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.
Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.
In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.
Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities. I agree with you on this one. Kerosene is dirty and so is diesel. Both should be highly taxed. The argument that taxing an item highly will discourage its usage is medieval and irrelevant in the 21st century. Government hiked taxes on polythene bags amid increased appetite for the wrappers by nearly all vendors countrywide. It is imperative to introduce laws that are environmentally friendly or implement alternative consumption of other energy sources in a manner rational to the populace and logical for quick uptake. You are right. How could we doubt your wisdom? Forgive us. * @VVS tears up his economic textbooks that discuss Elastic Demand, Inelastic Demand and Substitution. * Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Spikes wrote:murchr wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:In the short-term raising taxes on Kerosene to match Diesel/Petrol will cause some consternation as we approach the elections.
In the long-term, it is a good thing as Kerosene is a 'dirty' fuel especially when burned at low temperatures. Planes use Kerosene (Jet-A1) but it is burned at a very high temperature thus there's less soot produced and a higher 'energy' output.
Kerosene often provides poor quality light vs LPG or LED lamps powered by solar power.
The soot produced by burning kerosene at home is harmful to the eyes and lungs. A transition should be made to better alternatives.
In the long-term, the cost of burning kerosene exceeds LPG and/or solar for the same amount of light and heat. I believe GoK should encourage the uptake of M-Kopa (& its competitors) for lighting. For cooking I think the focus should be on LPG which can replace firewood, charcoal and kerosene.
Other alternatives include bio-fuels including biogel (essentially ethanol). Then there is all the trash which can be converted into clean burning briquettes OR a 'community' high temperature furnace that provides centralized cooking facilities. I agree with you on this one. Kerosene is dirty and so is diesel. Both should be highly taxed. The argument that taxing an item highly will discourage its usage is medieval and irrelevant in the 21st century. Government hiked taxes o n polythene bags amid increased appetite for the wrappers by nearly all vendors countrywide. It is imperative to introduce laws that are environmentally friendly or implement alternative consumption of other energy sources in a manner rational to the populace and logical for quick uptake. That was stopped, wahindis in the industry lobbied the GoK of the day that if the tax was to be hiked, then there would be job losses and minimal investments. In the west diesel is taxed higher than the normal petroleum fuel (pollution tax). It is believed that the higher tax will encourage the production of lower emission vehicles @vvs on why trailers trucks and lorries use diesel, better energy content per gallon than petrol. The engines last longer as per some mechanic i spoke to a while ago. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,384 Location: Nairobi
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mnandii wrote: And USDKES performs as I stated several months ago! I said KES would strengthen vs USD yet the consensus here at wazua was heavily tilted against me.  Now we wait to see the 'rationalization' that fundamentalists will come up with! Elliott and the markets is the best predictor of fundamentals...Prechter. How does that work re: currencies? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,384 Location: Nairobi
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lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:lochaz-index wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@lochaz - A 100 bps reduction is peanuts. The lending rates are still in 18-24% for most loans. When GoK issued 30bn in TAX-FREE bonds in May 2016, why would a bank lend to (most) customers at anything less than 20% APR? Yes, it is hardly much. But should have been a positive signal sentiment wise, resulting in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived. The fact that the market didn't even blink says a lot. Short-term thinking isn't it? Perhaps folks have become smarter and don't take actions that "result in a bounce on the indices albeit shallow and short-lived" anymore. Systemic malaise is the culprit here and judging by the budget summary presented, things will move from bad to worse. Treasury is still powering through with an expansionary budget(elections in mind) on the back of dwindling revenue collections. There is a lot less wriggle room for increasing taxes and it almost always ends up being counterproductive in a downturn. That leaves debt(especially domestic) to do the heavy lifting. KES permitting, even a massive rate cut won't do the trick this time. A few posts earlier weren't you the one who said a 100bps rate cut is a stimulant? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,384 Location: Nairobi
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@murchr Seems diesel is the 'better' fuel as far as 'energy' is concerned http://www.fool.com/inve...r-fuel-and-vehicle.aspx
Recent advances in low-emission engines despite the VW crisis should make diesel more palatable going forward. Maintenance is key for diesel engines, the matatus belching black smoke are improperly maintained. In many "Western" [eg USA, UK] countries, all vehicles over a certain age have to go for emission testing. I doubt 95% of Kenyan matatus of 4+ years can pass this test! "Consumers may think that because of the improved fuel efficiency a diesel provides, it's a better choice for the environment. That's not entirely true: diesel vehicles produce dirty emissions, and our nation's more strict emissions regulations are among the reasons the vehicles aren't as common in the U.S. as they are in Europe. While today's diesel cars are much cleaner than in decades past, some of the emissions include carcinogens, soot, and nitrous oxide -- if you drive significantly more miles in the city and believe in taking care of the environment, a diesel may not be for you. One pro for diesel engines is that they don't use spark plugs or distributors, which means there is no need for ignition tune-ups. On the flip side, diesels need to be regularly maintained or they can require extensive repairs, and diesel mechanics work at a much more expensive rate." "Ultimately, if you're driving between 7,500 and 10,000 miles annually it'll be difficult to save enough on fuel costs to justify a diesel purchase. If you drive significantly more miles than average, have a lopsided amount of miles driven on the highway rather than in the city, or are looking into a vehicle that requires premium gasoline, a diesel option is certainly a good one to consider further." No wonder diesel lorries and pick-ups are preferred coz of the significant mileage they travel in a year. Nairobi-Mombasa is 300 miles. One return trip a week = 50 x 300 x 2 = 30,000 miles. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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VituVingiSana wrote:@murchr Seems diesel is the 'better' fuel as far as 'energy' is concerned http://www.fool.com/inve...r-fuel-and-vehicle.aspx
Recent advances in low-emission engines despite the VW crisis should make diesel more palatable going forward. Maintenance is key for diesel engines, the matatus belching black smoke are improperly maintained. In many "Western" [eg USA, UK] countries, all vehicles over a certain age have to go for emission testing. I doubt 95% of Kenyan matatus of 4+ years can pass this test! "Consumers may think that because of the improved fuel efficiency a diesel provides, it's a better choice for the environment. That's not entirely true: diesel vehicles produce dirty emissions, and our nation's more strict emissions regulations are among the reasons the vehicles aren't as common in the U.S. as they are in Europe. While today's diesel cars are much cleaner than in decades past, some of the emissions include carcinogens, soot, and nitrous oxide -- if you drive significantly more miles in the city and believe in taking care of the environment, a diesel may not be for you. One pro for diesel engines is that they don't use spark plugs or distributors, which means there is no need for ignition tune-ups. On the flip side, diesels need to be regularly maintained or they can require extensive repairs, and diesel mechanics work at a much more expensive rate." "Ultimately, if you're driving between 7,500 and 10,000 miles annually it'll be difficult to save enough on fuel costs to justify a diesel purchase. If you drive significantly more miles than average, have a lopsided amount of miles driven on the highway rather than in the city, or are looking into a vehicle that requires premium gasoline, a diesel option is certainly a good one to consider further." No wonder diesel lorries and pick-ups are preferred coz of the significant mileage they travel in a year. Nairobi-Mombasa is 300 miles. One return trip a week = 50 x 300 x 2 = 30,000 miles. Agreed, but the VW scandal kinda killed the "clean diesel" dream. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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