When the shares flood the market, things will get messy.

the only hope is that govt will not trade their rights soon otherwise it could even hit 3bob when rights hit the market

but dividends will reduce to like 20cts

I think 20 -35 cents is the most likely range. H1 EPS was 2.58 while full year the previous year was 5.24. Earnings are likely to be kinda stagnant since there is no major electricity being injected except the new 75MW of which 50MW is done hence a scenario of EPS of near 5.1 (without factoring the dilution) in full year is likely.
The likelihood of an increase in dividend payout ratio is a 50/50 thing since they have projects to finance which are money hungry. Another thing, this is the lowest payout ratio in a long time.
2010 - 33%
2011 - 55%
2012 - 46%
2013 - 25%
2014 - 31%
2015 - 12%

So its all dependent of the immediate future projects funding which in my view are money hungry. Olkaria V 140MW targeting 2018, 80MW wind target is 2018, Olkaria VI 140MW 2019 plus other small ones.
But an increase in dividend will spike the price

With 70% ownership and at current stock price they would only offload their stake to an INSTITUTIONAL investor at a premium