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Kengen success
watesh
#311 Posted : Monday, May 23, 2016 9:53:06 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/10/2014
Posts: 992
Location: Kenya
Realcement wrote:
@Sparkly amd @All

Please dont get me wrong. KENGEN is a good stock on the long term. The timing and the rights price of 6.55 bob is wrong. They would have discounted it far less like 3 to 4 bob.

Since you have 30% portfolio holding in KENGEN a good advise is NOT to take your rights but to buy in the market at 4.00 bob or below in the coming months.

Going from 4 bob to 10 bob in 3 years time (post election risk) is better than 6.55 bob to 10 bob.

KENGEN management were NOT well advised by their transaction advisors.

Govt participation is not cash but conversion of debt to equity. What Kengen actually needs is cash for expansion in their wind and geothermal energy drive and of course hydro electricity , A LOT OF CASH.

They are trying to expand their capacity as they have a ready market as a monopology. They can even sale some power to EA neigbours.
In 5 years time your KENGEN will behave as safaricom, that downward swing for several month and systematic rise afterwards.


Buyers of KENGEN it is a long term play (but a good price) shoould be patient as you unlock greater value over time. Imagine from 4.00 bot to circa 18 bob in future.

My message is clear sir.

The rights issue was a move to reduce debt by the company hence giving it more room for more debt for future projects...
citymayor
#312 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2016 1:47:27 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 2/15/2012
Posts: 29
Location: unimportant
muandiwambeu wrote:
nashx wrote:
citymayor wrote:
nashx wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Dear KenGen shareholders,

Pole sana.

VVS.


For my own information someone educate me on what would be the potential implications to the share price if the rights were undersubcribed


Section 3.5 of the IM: “A minimum of 65% of the Rights Issue is requires to be accepted for it to be declared successful. This implies that a minimum of 2,857,869,893 New Shares need to be taken up and fully paid for.”

Government is taking up its full 70 % stake so whatever you decide to do(or not do) you are facing a massive dilution since the rights issue is already “technically” successful

@citymayor
Asante that was the kind of answer I was looking for...

u should know your bedmate @citymayor. Gova's offered to convert wrong before the pie was put into the table and successfulness of such is not in question. the question is how will the 30% responded is the quiz. Gova does little of daily market price movements and if it does it would have save u by fronting a formidable ppt to save the stock price plunge being experienced. so, whoil is your bedmate here. could have arrangent the conversion privately here and save your heart the ache bumps.
what a cruel cold treatment affair. look and see how your big bro got you monkeyed here.
70% is successful, so what about 30% that says what trades and at what price? what are they left felleling, .....shafted ofcoarse.


@muandiwambeu overlooking the fact you are either striving to be a vernacular comic or we have to adapt to the incoherrent grammar, you do raise a valid
point. Assuming the 30 % take up their rights in full or by selling the Nil rights in the market(price dip below rights complicates matters), I still expect a reasonable FY16EPS post rights to mitigate any serious effects on the shareprice on a fundamental perspective.
Those feeling severely shafted are the fellows that bought into the share on FY15 announcements without looking into the books(cow fattening) and were unlucky to still be holding by rights issue book closure.
That said, it's a solid company at the 'right' price for longterm investors
The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
citymayor
#313 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2016 1:50:59 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 2/15/2012
Posts: 29
Location: unimportant
Realcement wrote:
OR
Are You not aware That when the rights is listed for trading in early July the 2:1 right Will translate to one third the Price? The 6.35 closing price of today Will ne listed zs 2.16 bob?
3 or 4 bob post listing price I have been advocating is a GENEROUS price. It can be mess

OR
Are not aware of the hype by KENGEN and stockbrokers it Is better to take up your rights to avoid your stocks holding in KENGEN being diluted?

AND OR
What Is dilution?
Is it not introducing more shares in a counter thus
REDUCING its ruling price and dividend?

SO
What are we talking about friends?
Is potential political risk not real?
Then why is the market dull irrespective of FY 15 STERLING performances of KCB, EQUITY, SAFARICOM and the likes?
Pole sana let me quote from VVS.


@Realcement unless these were bonus shares in question it is relative ignorance to divide the price by 3. someone will pay 6.55 for their rights how exactly their share will be worth a third of that price is perplexing. I enjoy your analysis in general though
The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
Aguytrying
#314 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2016 11:51:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Look we're in a bear market for now. What PE was kengen trading at before the rights was announced? what PE is kenya power trading at now. Use that to calculate the Price with the new EPS after dilution.


The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
moneydust
#315 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2016 11:59:54 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
citymayor wrote:
Realcement wrote:
OR
Are You not aware That when the rights is listed for trading in early July the 2:1 right Will translate to one third the Price? The 6.35 closing price of today Will ne listed zs 2.16 bob?
3 or 4 bob post listing price I have been advocating is a GENEROUS price. It can be mess

OR
Are not aware of the hype by KENGEN and stockbrokers it Is better to take up your rights to avoid your stocks holding in KENGEN being diluted?

AND OR
What Is dilution?
Is it not introducing more shares in a counter thus
REDUCING its ruling price and dividend?

SO
What are we talking about friends?
Is potential political risk not real?
Then why is the market dull irrespective of FY 15 STERLING performances of KCB, EQUITY, SAFARICOM and the likes?
Pole sana let me quote from VVS.


@Realcement unless these were bonus shares in question it is relative ignorance to divide the price by 3. someone will pay 6.55 for their rights how exactly their share will be worth a third of that price is perplexing. I enjoy your analysis in general though


Good question there!!! I really wonder who would be selling at 4/= and why if the fundamentals remain the same.If that be the case why not sell now at a price above 4/=??
mlennyma
#316 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2016 12:47:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
moneydust wrote:
citymayor wrote:
Realcement wrote:
OR
Are You not aware That when the rights is listed for trading in early July the 2:1 right Will translate to one third the Price? The 6.35 closing price of today Will ne listed zs 2.16 bob?
3 or 4 bob post listing price I have been advocating is a GENEROUS price. It can be mess

OR
Are not aware of the hype by KENGEN and stockbrokers it Is better to take up your rights to avoid your stocks holding in KENGEN being diluted?

AND OR
What Is dilution?
Is it not introducing more shares in a counter thus
REDUCING its ruling price and dividend?

SO
What are we talking about friends?
Is potential political risk not real?
Then why is the market dull irrespective of FY 15 STERLING performances of KCB, EQUITY, SAFARICOM and the likes?
Pole sana let me quote from VVS.


@Realcement unless these were bonus shares in question it is relative ignorance to divide the price by 3. someone will pay 6.55 for their rights how exactly their share will be worth a third of that price is perplexing. I enjoy your analysis in general though


Good question there!!! I really wonder who would be selling at 4/= and why if the fundamentals remain the same.If that be the case why not sell now at a price above 4/=??

it can even go for 2bob depending on the market feelings and political climate
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
enyands
#317 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2016 2:48:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
Sad
enyands
#318 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2016 2:50:14 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,301
Location: kenya
Meanwhile "The KenGen share has slipped below the discounted rights issue price of Sh6.55, dealing a potential blow to the offer as it makes it more attractive for investors to buy the stock in the open market" today's BD. There was a silent dove somewhere from Western Africa that warned. I'll wait for it at 3 a share
sparkly
#319 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2016 3:12:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
enyands wrote:
Meanwhile "The KenGen share has slipped below the discounted rights issue price of Sh6.55, dealing a potential blow to the offer as it makes it more attractive for investors to buy the stock in the open market" today's BD. There was a silent dove somewhere from Western Africa that warned. I'll wait for it at 3 a share


How much will you be investing once it hits 3 smile
Life is short. Live passionately.
instinct
#320 Posted : Tuesday, May 24, 2016 7:00:32 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
sparkly wrote:
enyands wrote:
Meanwhile "The KenGen share has slipped below the discounted rights issue price of Sh6.55, dealing a potential blow to the offer as it makes it more attractive for investors to buy the stock in the open market" today's BD. There was a silent dove somewhere from Western Africa that warned. I'll wait for it at 3 a share


How much will you be investing once it hits 3 smile


wanachangisha pesa ya kuliwa na wazee
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