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Kengen success
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MadDoc
#231 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2016 1:25:32 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/26/2015
Posts: 151
citymayor wrote:
MadDoc wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
EPS with the newly issued shares after rights issue is likely to be in the range of 1.4-1.6.
Working with the lower band of 1.4,the dividend is likely to be about 0.35.
At a P/E of 8-9 the share is likely to be trading in the price ranges of 11-12 post rights and after release of Full Year 2015/2016 trading results

In this bear market, a PE of 4.5 - 7 would be safer. Still it's a prime time to pick up this stock. That in mind, 10/ could be reached. That's an upside of almost 40% from its current price


@MadDoc, could you kindly enlighten us on what fundamentals or ratios you are using to arrive at a 10/ valuation

I'm using Ericsson's EPS range. So i,ve decided to calculate it myself. If KENGEN was to maintain the 15% profit growth as in 2015, the EPS actually comes to 2. However, Let's be conservative and use 1.7.
1.7*6=10.2

Ive used an eps of 6 as a middle ground.
10 isn't very certain. And after all stocks are built on opportunities and risks
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winmak
#232 Posted : Tuesday, May 17, 2016 5:35:48 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
sparkly wrote:
Trading at Rights price 6.55. Lets see what happens when rights are traded in the market from 23rd May.


I feel trapped by this share. Got 15k shares, avg buying price of 9.5... No money to take up my rights in full (circa 200K!!!), Now advice a friend who wants the best way forward... 1) To avoid the rights and average down post-rights? 2) to take up full rights??? with no clear exit plan 3) To just do nothing, let the shares be diluted, but hang in there for a very very long time, probably to be inherited by the kids...
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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mulla
#233 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 12:48:58 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/15/2013
Posts: 301
winmak wrote:
sparkly wrote:
Trading at Rights price 6.55. Lets see what happens when rights are traded in the market from 23rd May.


I feel trapped by this share. Got 15k shares, avg buying price of 9.5... No money to take up my rights in full (circa 200K!!!), Now advice a friend who wants the best way forward... 1) To avoid the rights and average down post-rights? 2) to take up full rights??? with no clear exit plan 3) To just do nothing, let the shares be diluted, but hang in there for a very very long time, probably to be inherited by the kids...


option 1 for me....possibility they will trade at less than rights issue price post rights...especially in this bearish market.......
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cocuphil
#234 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 1:30:12 PM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 5/18/2016
Posts: 2
option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above.
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mlennyma
#235 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 1:34:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
cocuphil wrote:
option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above.

i still expect plenty of untaken rights giving those selling their rights a hard time
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Aguytrying
#236 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 3:37:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
cocuphil wrote:
option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above.

i still expect plenty of untaken rights giving those selling their rights a hard time


This is my view all along, its not easy for a shareholder to triple their investment if they have a significant stake. Unless some institutional investors or larger shareholders come in to save the day, it will be hard to raise 8bn. and to add insult to this is the share has been on a decline. in 2013-2014 they could even have done this at 10.00 and issue fewer shares. if only
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#237 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 3:42:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
cocuphil wrote:
option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above.

i still expect plenty of untaken rights giving those selling their rights a hard time


This is my view all along, its not easy for a shareholder to triple their investment if they have a significant stake. Unless some institutional investors or larger shareholders come in to save the day, it will be hard to raise 8bn. and to add insult to this is the share has been on a decline. in 2013-2014 they could even have done this at 10.00 and issue fewer shares. if only

you have seen mworia swallow longhorn alone it only remains to be seen whether kengen has this high appetite investor on board
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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winmak
#238 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 3:49:59 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 12/1/2007
Posts: 539
Location: Nakuru
cocuphil wrote:
option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above.


i like this one, thanks bro... but what if noone buys the rights?
For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases ~ WB
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sparkly
#239 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 4:01:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:

A much clearer cartoonsmile
Rising volumes with falling prices.
RSI, Bollinger bands all pointing to overselling.


@sparkly, hope you are holding out long term. We still have the Oct 2016 date when we review KEGN again. My target is 4/- with the rights issue thrown into the dustbin!


Got myself some more at 5.50 yesterday. My bid for another lot at 5.00 today didn't go through.

I keep on buying as the sellers capitulate. I have a feeling that rights will be priced way above 5.50 so i am having my rights right now.


Time for review.
Doubled my holdings at 5.50 and thereabouts. Since the rights price is confirmed at 6.55, I will only be taking half of my allotted rights.

Not keen to allocate too much of my networth in Kengen so i will sell the remaining half of the rights in the market.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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mlennyma
#240 Posted : Wednesday, May 18, 2016 4:01:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
winmak wrote:
cocuphil wrote:
option 4 you could sale your rights and make a few coins awaiting dilution. say you are selling off 15k rights at 6.55, you could make something as you wait to onboard again after dilution and stability as predicted above.


i like this one, thanks bro... but what if noone buys the rights?

they will be classified as untaken
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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