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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 3 year weekly chart shows support at around 6 bob. I don't have the skills to analyze post rights scenario technically  The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,804 Location: NAIROBI
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EPS with the newly issued shares after rights issue is likely to be in the range of 1.4-1.6. Working with the lower band of 1.4,the dividend is likely to be about 0.35. At a P/E of 8-9 the share is likely to be trading in the price ranges of 11-12 post rights and after release of Full Year 2015/2016 trading results Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/28/2014 Posts: 188 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:EPS with the newly issued shares after rights issue is likely to be in the range of 1.4-1.6.
Working with the lower band of 1.4,the dividend is likely to be about 0.35.
At a P/E of 8-9 the share is likely to be trading in the price ranges of 11-12 post rights and after release of Full Year 2015/2016 trading results Your predictions are almost always accurate...Hope this comes true... Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/26/2015 Posts: 151
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Ericsson wrote:EPS with the newly issued shares after rights issue is likely to be in the range of 1.4-1.6.
Working with the lower band of 1.4,the dividend is likely to be about 0.35.
At a P/E of 8-9 the share is likely to be trading in the price ranges of 11-12 post rights and after release of Full Year 2015/2016 trading results In this bear market, a PE of 4.5 - 7 would be safer. Still it's a prime time to pick up this stock. That in mind, 10/ could be reached. That's an upside of almost 40% from its current price
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/15/2012 Posts: 29 Location: unimportant
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MadDoc wrote:Ericsson wrote:EPS with the newly issued shares after rights issue is likely to be in the range of 1.4-1.6.
Working with the lower band of 1.4,the dividend is likely to be about 0.35.
At a P/E of 8-9 the share is likely to be trading in the price ranges of 11-12 post rights and after release of Full Year 2015/2016 trading results In this bear market, a PE of 4.5 - 7 would be safer. Still it's a prime time to pick up this stock. That in mind, 10/ could be reached. That's an upside of almost 40% from its current price @MadDoc, could you kindly enlighten us on what fundamentals or ratios you are using to arrive at a 10/ valuationThe Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 23
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citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/30/2013 Posts: 254
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Grand wrote:citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc. 'Wide Economic Moat' A type of sustainable competitive advantage that a business possesses that makes it difficult for rivals to wear down its market share and profit
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Trading at Rights price 6.55. Lets see what happens when rights are traded in the market from 23rd May. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/31/2007 Posts: 304
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Grand wrote:citymayor wrote:citymayor wrote:Ebenyo wrote:@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price? @Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are willing to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35 Going forward Kengen is likely to issue a profit warning. If you look at the FY 2015 results you will see huge one off items like tax incentives and other comprehensive income from revaluation of assets. But that said, this is a strong stock fundermentally and good value for money from P.E, P/B, Wide moat etc. Profit Warning?? I highly doubt unless something happens to their generating capacity.Profit before tax for the whole of 2015 was 8.6B while for the half year 2016 is 8.3B.In the half year results the company actually paid full tax leading to an EPS of 2.58. Like I have said before there is too much pessimism clouding the analysis of this share..This is a gem to have at the current prices.
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