Now That Uganda Has Abandoned Us....

Uganda, like a sly seductress, took Kenya on a wild chase on the now famed oil pipeline. Uganda claims to have discovered oil. So is Kenya. South Sudan has real oil fields. Kenya wisely thought that Lamu Port will be the most ideal to export the oils of South Sudan, Uganda and ours, and also serve as export and import Port for all three plus Ethiopia, Rwanda and DR Congo. But, all along, President Museveni had signed a contract with President Pombe Magufuli. Uganda wasted our time. Holding our hand while kissing Tanzania.

Ethiopia and South Sudan are our natural allies. South Sudanese are Nilotes and its tribes are cousins of Kalenjin- Luo- Maasai Nations. And her leaders and elite families live in Nairobi. Ethiopia, prides itself as a Christian Nation and they claim heritage going all the way to King Solomon. Kenya is 80% Christian Nation.

Kenya, South Sudan and Ethiopia is over 2m sq km, with a sizable population of about 150m and kiosk-size economy of us$120Billion. European Union, with only twice the area, has a population of 500m and an economy of us$20Trillion. With our joint abundant resources, Kenya-South Sudan-Ethiopia need to form a true economic block, and work on increasing their population, through increased births and allowing immigration. Djibouti, Somalia and Eritrea ought to join us freely or by economic subjugation. Eastern Europe, on their own volition are rushing to join Western Europe. In being jilted by Museveni, we have to find a silver lining in a new economic union. I look forward to this new union: call it Ilemi Triangle Union; Horn of Africa Union; the Nile River Block; North Eastern Africa Union. Any name, but form it.

Clear headed thinking shows that Uganda's decision while not on our side has merit;

1. Kenya cannot guarantee the security of the Lamu Port and the general area where the pipeline is scheduled to pass
2. There is NO LAMU PORT, everything is just a blue print, compare with the existing Tanga Port. I am yet to see a concrete construction plan with definite timelines. I don't think the Jubilee govt will start work on the Lapsett project anytime soon, I think they are staking their big infrastructure plans on extending the SGR all the way to Kisumu/Malaba
3. The LAPSETT corridor has no clear financing while the Tanga Port will be fully financed by Total of France
4. Uganda has 6 Billion barrels compared to our 600 million, so not an arguement of equals
5. Plus Total has categorically stated that they are going the Tanga route and I think they have a big say in which route the pipeline takes

Other interesting things to note include the loud silence of Tullow, the recent Usd 1.5B prospecting bill etc should tell us that not all is well. Why is Tullow not concerned about the evacuation of their Turkana find

May be Ug is not the sly mistress but rather a nice gal looking to get married and Kenya is the man stringing her along with endless stories.

Frankly, if I was making the decision for Ug, I would take the Tanga deal

1-I agree Lamu is insecure with Alshabab holding keshas every now and then,even the route before you get to Lamu is not the best with no existing road along the route only increases the project cost.
2-I hear Uhuru's cabinet meeting in Naivasha has resolved to freeze any new projects until the current ones are done hope lamu port is one.
Also how is the port supposed to work seeing that there is no tarmacked road to Lamu, it ends at Witu, there is also no rail road yet they say they are building berths.

All in agreement, Kenya thinks it can use its dirty tricks to dupe museveni to commit himself and then the drama starts and everything stalls,sometimes a leader stands and protects his interests and thats trade...is there lamu port anyway or its 2060 project?,kudos M7

I hope Migingo will be taken back withh all the contempt that action deserves no kid gloves

What I don't understand is why we have to build a pipeline to export the oil. Its really not much right now. Why not process the crude somewhere in the rift.

We can't relocate the refinery from Mombasa to Turkana/Elgeyo Marakwet and just process the oil.

I especially don't like the idea of carrying crude on road/rail to Mombasa for export, by the way we are exporting to who?

Unless we can export upwards of 400,000 BPD, we should not bother.

Refineries built 100 years ago are still in use in parts of the world.

Also the fact that ESSAR bought the refinery less than 10 years ago suggests its still useable,

The issue was that the cost of landed refined petroleum was lower than that of buying crude, shipping it over here and refining it.

But as we have our own crude, surely the refining costs even if inefficient should still be lower than importing the finished stuff.

My 2 cents.

A refinery would be a real coup on this even better if it's built in say Eldoret or Lodwar or Samburu but also Kenya can go rogue and create vuguvugu in tz ..lindi mtwara and Pemba have pirates block any oil ever leaving Tanga anyway..too many options

And now the true colours of Wanyee and Swenani..
Perhaps m7 is aware of this side of us and Maghufuli offered a breath of fresh air.

makes more sense for them, especially with Magufuli in power, he seems like the kind of guy who ensures efficiency.
One also has to give it to the tanzanians, politically they are stable, election are done with and dusted, hapa Kenya its politics 24/7.
If Magufuli pushes with the education reforms in tz, they will get what we beat them at, human resource, tutabaki na siasa zetu.