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Safaricom 1H16 Results net profit up 23%
hisah
#241 Posted : Monday, May 09, 2016 5:40:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mlennyma wrote:
No buyers excitement at all with results around the corner, below expectation results will be dangerous.

Tested 16.60 intraday and closed unchanged @16.90 on thin volume at these levels. Minimal supply. No sellers!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#242 Posted : Monday, May 09, 2016 8:35:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@muchur, muganda. I'm with Bob on this one. The more successful you are the more pple want a piece of the pie. You would think that safaricom is a government entity based on the spirit of the petitioner. Yet a company like KQ or Mumias gets no airtime. But coz they broke no one cares.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
murchr
#243 Posted : Tuesday, May 10, 2016 7:11:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#244 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2016 5:32:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:

Interesting. The top 10 has 40% financial components and 30% telco (two out of three from Africa - Morocco and KE).

The link for the HY results live stream was https://www.safaricom.co.ke/livestream

I hope this hasn't changed.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#245 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2016 5:32:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
D-Day in a few hours. But I don't expect any love from the market.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#246 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2016 6:23:25 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
FY announcement start at 7:30am.



Using this PAT estimate the following estimates can be derived -

Est EPS = 91cts (13.8% increase vs 80cts)
Est DPS = 72cts (12.5% hike vs 64cts)
Fwd PER (P/E) = 18.63 (16.95/0.91)

This will indicate a slowdown in H2... Mpesa bank traditionally has a better return in H2. Are things flipping? Is the micro econ on the ropes? Telco service affordability vs food affordability. Is consumer spending slipping? Less wages = less spending.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#247 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2016 7:20:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Spikes
#248 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2016 7:43:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
FY announcement start at 7:30am.



Using this PAT estimate the following estimates can be derived -

Est EPS = 91cts (13.8% increase vs 80cts)
Est DPS = 72cts (12.5% hike vs 64cts)
Fwd PER (P/E) = 18.63 (16.95/0.91)

This will indicate a slowdown in H2... Mpesa bank traditionally has a better return in H2. Are things flipping? Is the micro econ on the ropes? Telco service affordability vs food affordability. Is consumer spending slipping? Less wages = less spending.


CBK released microeconomic report recently telling Kenyans that inflation has dropped. Inflation is all time high. I know these guys rely on scanty info based on the general fallacy that oil prices are down. Food prices are going up every year. Fare prices are also forcing their way up despite drop in global oil price. Things are not normal out there KRA missed the target. KRA is now planning to storm mobile money transfer to smoke out tax cheats. It is terrible.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Metasploit
#249 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 12:15:20 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
All eyes on the all time high to break it in a bear market....is it 17.90 or it ever tested 18???

17.90 is the mark. I expect it to be blown away! Near term target 18.50 - 18.85 from the chart pattern with an overshoot at 19.75 - 20 level. The spring has been building up bullish force from end of Jan to mid March and also being assisted by flight to quality with all the banking drama.

aborted coup

This will not be an immediate drive, but the breakout build up is taking shape. The expectation is to respect the current resistance at 18 handle then build up pressure for the break.
.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
Ebenyo
#250 Posted : Tuesday, June 07, 2016 4:15:09 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 2,016
Location: Kitale
Metasploit wrote:
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
hisah wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
All eyes on the all time high to break it in a bear market....is it 17.90 or it ever tested 18???

17.90 is the mark. I expect it to be blown away! Near term target 18.50 - 18.85 from the chart pattern with an overshoot at 19.75 - 20 level. The spring has been building up bullish force from end of Jan to mid March and also being assisted by flight to quality with all the banking drama.

aborted coup

This will not be an immediate drive, but the breakout build up is taking shape. The expectation is to respect the current resistance at 18 handle then build up pressure for the break.
.

But the PE is still high bana @t 19.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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