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Housing Finance
MaichBlack
#1 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 10:29:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,851
Housing Finance has a price-to-book ratio of 0.96 which means it is trading at a discount but still has the highest P/E in the industry. Something must be fundamentally wrong at HF.

Most of us know that HF has alot of potential but what is being done towards the realization of this potential? I have been planning to average down my buying price for this stock (currently at 24-25) but I'm not so sure for how long this giant is planning to sleep.

Your thoughts?
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
guru267
#2 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 11:35:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@maichblack price/book ratio is a much better valuation method than P/E ratio because it shows the intrinsic value of the share based on assets whereas the P/E only shows the valuation based on earnings which can change like the weather....

especially for a company like HFCK which was rocked by mismanagement and courruption using earnings to value the stock wouldnt be right since it is barely 2 years since completion of restructuring...

with housing demand in kenya growing at 50% per year and current earnings of HFCK being only 2% of the total asset base this company's growth potential is too large for one to ignore.....

another thing to look out for is when interest is finally sparked towards the counter its reltively low share float will send the price through the roof...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mv_ufanisi
#3 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 11:38:04 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
My advise is keep waiting. The high PE keeps people away for some reason. Despite the potential. I promise myself to never buy expensive stocks again.
guru267
#4 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 12:13:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
one tip for long term investors(5years or more): never use P/E as a valuation method for buying stocks before using all other valuation methods and research...


Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mv_ufanisi
#5 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 12:54:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
@guru267 - I beg to differ. P/E over a period of time is a pretty solid indicator of the attractiveness of a business as a going concern. NAV is a good consideration for asset players.
ProverB
#6 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 1:09:48 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
@ufanisi... a step better than p/e...considering earnings can be manipulated.. PSR...price to sales ratio...how much investors are currently paying for a shilling of annual revenues... if ratio is more than 1....definately pe will be too high..no matter the figure. as long as PSR is below 1... stock is a buy... case in point... Kakuzi... even as the market seems to behave like the stock has hit a ceiling.... the circus the share is playing between 69-77 is largely behavioral than fundamental...perception that "can it go higher really?" and the fact results announcing period imeisha.. but i digress.. back to housing finance.. too expe!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mv_ufanisi
#7 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 1:23:17 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
@ProverB the truth is if earnings can be doctored so can revenues. Still earnings are supposed to be the "take home" and so are a better indicator for the investor. Two businesses can have the same revenues and hence the same PSR but vastly different profit margins and hence earnings.

Therefore revenues are not by themselves a good indicator of a business.
ProverB
#8 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 1:30:28 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
mmmmmhm.
well, no one uses just one ratio to analyse. but i prefer PSR to p/e. just me.
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
guru267
#9 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 1:33:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@mv_ufanisi & @proverB
i want to understand how a long term investor can use previous and current earnings or revenues of a company to judge what a company's performance will be five years down the road.???? revenues and earnings are good for short term investors but not long term onrs because they are very susceptible to changes in market conditions such as inflation, company strategies, demand for companies products..

on the other hand one can determine a companies assets and liabilities five years from now. and last time i checked its these assets that bring in the earnings and revenue...

BTW: in exchanges where share buy backs are allowed most companies with suffucient cash buy their shares back from the market if price/book is less than 1 regardless of the P/E
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
ProverB
#10 Posted : Tuesday, April 13, 2010 1:47:01 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
@guru.. am more keen on being a trader ..so short term does for me... window of analysis is 3 years past... growing revenues against competition means growing market...hence revenue ratios... earnings margin let me know how much of that revenue is turned into profit and whether the margin is growing over time... p/e just indicates what mood of investors is...and has distorted my investing in the past.. so i don't rely on it.. everyone who buys a share will tell you "low p/e" even without understanding what that means.

for 5 years down the line... well ..anything that grows annually by at least 15 % will double in size in 5 years...whether the growth is in earnings..or rather return on assets, return on equity or otherwise..


price to book value is relevant where comparing between companies within same industry..ama having similar capitalization criteria...e.g banks... keno/Total, Bamburi/Portland..ARM is loose ball..thanks to moving from solely cement..albeit marginally...
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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