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Oil Pipeline Politics
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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sitaki.kujulikana wrote:masukuma wrote:limanika wrote:sitaki.kujulikana wrote:oil and sub sahara africa do not go together, its a blessing in disguise, continual focus should be on wind, solar and geothermal energy.
in like 20 years those pipelines will be like those coffee plantations in central kenya. In fact kenya should delay construction of the crude pipeline for the longest time, no point doing it right now coz with current crude prices theres very little to make out of it due to too many sharks waiting on the sidelines. ION, Tullow already slapping GoK with sh 150billion bill, quite outrageous if you ask me. We simply don't have strategy. If you don't plan, someone plans for you Do you do it for now or for the future? Will oil prices rise again? Oil prices will likely never rise again in future, if you look at the direction the car industry is taking, plus there are more smaller producers coming in whose cost of extracting is high, the saudis and iranians will make sure its just at a level where they make a profit while locking out all the others, and that is the sweet spot of 30-40 If you really think about it, why do we have to build a pipeline facing one particular direction (to the coast) without even thinking? So we can power industries in other markets, who in turn manufacture goods using our oil and sell to us at inflated prices? Typical African thinking. Why not build pipeline from source to Nairobi and other major towns for our own consumption? We could import only those ingredients needed to make the final product. Kenya has over 500,000 motor vehicles, assuming an average consumption of 5litrs/day/vehicle, we dish out over 50b annually to Middle East in oil purchases. If we used our reserves for home consumption, this money will remain in Kenya, creating jobs. And by the way, what is 600million barrels? Some countries like US have billions in strategic national reserves nobody can touch - for national security. Why would anyone want to give away all that he has, for nothing in return?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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Swenani wrote:Swenani wrote:Kenya to build it's oil pipeline. UK to deliver that message to Pombe and Kaguta Uhuru to EAC ‘Kenya to build it’s own pipeline’ in reaction to ‘decision by Uganda to choose TZ’ is type of reaction you expect from a baboon fight. From where I sit, Kenya should look at the big picture and decide it now probably doesn’t make sense to build 2 pipelines, except if (1) All we want is to prove a point (2) S. Sudan does some of the financing. Reason No. 1 is no reason. Kenya should change tack, and build pipelines for own consumption. For starters, even the decision by UG to export most if not all of its crude isn’t the best
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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Kenya's annual petrol requirements are 4.4 billion litres as compared to 2.8 billion litres for Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi,South Sudan, Northern Tanzania and Eastern DRC If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/3/2015 Posts: 118 Location: Nairobi
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limanika wrote:sitaki.kujulikana wrote:masukuma wrote:limanika wrote:sitaki.kujulikana wrote:oil and sub sahara africa do not go together, its a blessing in disguise, continual focus should be on wind, solar and geothermal energy.
in like 20 years those pipelines will be like those coffee plantations in central kenya. In fact kenya should delay construction of the crude pipeline for the longest time, no point doing it right now coz with current crude prices theres very little to make out of it due to too many sharks waiting on the sidelines. ION, Tullow already slapping GoK with sh 150billion bill, quite outrageous if you ask me. We simply don't have strategy. If you don't plan, someone plans for you Do you do it for now or for the future? Will oil prices rise again? Oil prices will likely never rise again in future, if you look at the direction the car industry is taking, plus there are more smaller producers coming in whose cost of extracting is high, the saudis and iranians will make sure its just at a level where they make a profit while locking out all the others, and that is the sweet spot of 30-40 If you really think about it, why do we have to build a pipeline facing one particular direction (to the coast) without even thinking? So we can power industries in other markets, who in turn manufacture goods using our oil and sell to us at inflated prices? Typical African thinking. Why not build pipeline from source to Nairobi and other major towns for our own consumption? We could import only those ingredients needed to make the final product. Kenya has over 500,000 motor vehicles, assuming an average consumption of 5litrs/day/vehicle, we dish out over 50b annually to Middle East in oil purchases. If we used our reserves for home consumption, this money will remain in Kenya, creating jobs. And by the way, what is 600million barrels? Some countries like US have billions in strategic national reserves nobody can touch - for national security. Why would anyone want to give away all that he has, for nothing in return? This 600 million is for a speck in lokichar basin's sea, most of this basin is unexplored. then add in the recent kerio valley find of over 700m oil shows, biggest so far is around 200m net oil pay. Funny enough, check out map number 2 from africa oil showing the proposed pipeline route, it's like uganda wasnt on plan http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/project-maps.asp Also shows where the oil finds have been, vis-a vis the basins marked high probability of finds. needle and haystack come to mind. I think they were to do a well in the nyanza basin, which is believed to be a copy-paste of uganda's albertine basin. Some other part of the development program most people did not understand was that the pipeline from wherever all the way to lamu was an export line. a refinery is planned for isiolo. surely, this means local consumption, maybe regional Que competition for market between UG and kenya... So much to write about this topic, haitaisha leo
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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Musimo wrote:limanika wrote:sitaki.kujulikana wrote:masukuma wrote:limanika wrote:sitaki.kujulikana wrote:oil and sub sahara africa do not go together, its a blessing in disguise, continual focus should be on wind, solar and geothermal energy.
in like 20 years those pipelines will be like those coffee plantations in central kenya. In fact kenya should delay construction of the crude pipeline for the longest time, no point doing it right now coz with current crude prices theres very little to make out of it due to too many sharks waiting on the sidelines. ION, Tullow already slapping GoK with sh 150billion bill, quite outrageous if you ask me. We simply don't have strategy. If you don't plan, someone plans for you Do you do it for now or for the future? Will oil prices rise again? Oil prices will likely never rise again in future, if you look at the direction the car industry is taking, plus there are more smaller producers coming in whose cost of extracting is high, the saudis and iranians will make sure its just at a level where they make a profit while locking out all the others, and that is the sweet spot of 30-40 If you really think about it, why do we have to build a pipeline facing one particular direction (to the coast) without even thinking? So we can power industries in other markets, who in turn manufacture goods using our oil and sell to us at inflated prices? Typical African thinking. Why not build pipeline from source to Nairobi and other major towns for our own consumption? We could import only those ingredients needed to make the final product. Kenya has over 500,000 motor vehicles, assuming an average consumption of 5litrs/day/vehicle, we dish out over 50b annually to Middle East in oil purchases. If we used our reserves for home consumption, this money will remain in Kenya, creating jobs. And by the way, what is 600million barrels? Some countries like US have billions in strategic national reserves nobody can touch - for national security. Why would anyone want to give away all that he has, for nothing in return? This 600 million is for a speck in lokichar basin's sea, most of this basin is unexplored. then add in the recent kerio valley find of over 700m oil shows, biggest so far is around 200m net oil pay. Funny enough, check out map number 2 from africa oil showing the proposed pipeline route, it's like uganda wasnt on plan http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/project-maps.asp Also shows where the oil finds have been, vis-a vis the basins marked high probability of finds. needle and haystack come to mind. I think they were to do a well in the nyanza basin, which is believed to be a copy-paste of uganda's albertine basin. Some other part of the development program most people did not understand was that the pipeline from wherever all the way to lamu was an export line. a refinery is planned for isiolo. surely, this means local consumption, maybe regional Que competition for market between UG and kenya... So much to write about this topic, haitaisha leo Is the oil refinery in Isiolo still viable considering Kenya and TZ are going to have a share in Uganda's refinery? If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/14/2011 Posts: 661
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masukuma wrote:Much Know wrote:masukuma wrote:These days I am thinking so much in the lines of "Mwamba Ngoma huvuta pande yake". Quick question? Why do we assume that Uganda is here for our interests? Or TZ is here to shortcut us? That TZ is always looking for opportunities to screw us? Uganda primarily is in this thing for it's interests! Why did Total decide the way it did? It's interests! Thinking it's something else is missing the point. Arguing on Wazua like Kenya is the senior country in EAC is missing the point! All countries in EAC are in it for themselves primarily and if it works out that there is a nexus then cooperation is made easier. Poleni but it's all business not personal! Mwamba ngoma anavuta pande yake! People can be unaware of what is in their best interest, infact many think tribal thinking is in their interest whereas it is not. Greedy corrupt people and thieves think they are working in their interest and they are usually not. The question is why should some Kenyans look after the interest of UG/TZ and not their own? Ask why, why why? Wivu ama ujinga, ETHICS, ethics supersedes what one may think or what one may argue is their interest, without ethical politics. There is no other answer, wivu au ujinga, there is no 'good reason'. Why should a Kenyan sneak to make deals that undermine our (his own peoples) interest, that's the problem here, UG/TZ can build their own but it is not cost effective and without Kenya, it is a 'pipe dream' in the true sense of the word. When negotiating you need to think like the person you are engaging! Think... "what is their interest in this matter?" - "How can I align my interests with theirs so that I can rope them in?". Sometimes when verbalising this analysis and playing devil's advocate, untrained observers may think that the person articulating what they perceive as interest of the other party as being pro-the other camp and thus a sellout. I don't think there is a kenyan who wants LAPPSET to fail but there are objective people who can see WHY IT WOULD FAIL. They are not wishing for it's failure they are just objective enough to see why a partner would not join us in that journey. We should address their "Why"s not attack them for not being on our side. Nani alisema Raila alienda TZ kuTuuza? The Pipeline decision was made by the group paying for it's being built... Total! We are wasting emotions and intellect thinking that somehow Bwana Pombe and Bwana Museveni want to screw us. @ Masukuma, I admire your objectivity in this discussion. They say if you think of life as like a big pie, you can try to hold the whole pie and kill yourself trying to keep it, or you can slice it up and give some to the people around you, and you still have plenty left for yourself. UG/TZ interests might not be Kenya's. @ Much Know, you can’t argue on the guise of ethics or patriotism to bully countries or people to buy things and/or projects they don’t need with money they don’t have (loans) to impress people they don’t know. “The world has enough for everyone's need, but not enough for everyone's greed.” ― Mahatma Gandhi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,588
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Thiong'o wrote:masukuma wrote:Much Know wrote:masukuma wrote:These days I am thinking so much in the lines of "Mwamba Ngoma huvuta pande yake". Quick question? Why do we assume that Uganda is here for our interests? Or TZ is here to shortcut us? That TZ is always looking for opportunities to screw us? Uganda primarily is in this thing for it's interests! Why did Total decide the way it did? It's interests! Thinking it's something else is missing the point. Arguing on Wazua like Kenya is the senior country in EAC is missing the point! All countries in EAC are in it for themselves primarily and if it works out that there is a nexus then cooperation is made easier. Poleni but it's all business not personal! Mwamba ngoma anavuta pande yake! People can be unaware of what is in their best interest, infact many think tribal thinking is in their interest whereas it is not. Greedy corrupt people and thieves think they are working in their interest and they are usually not. The question is why should some Kenyans look after the interest of UG/TZ and not their own? Ask why, why why? Wivu ama ujinga, ETHICS, ethics supersedes what one may think or what one may argue is their interest, without ethical politics. There is no other answer, wivu au ujinga, there is no 'good reason'. Why should a Kenyan sneak to make deals that undermine our (his own peoples) interest, that's the problem here, UG/TZ can build their own but it is not cost effective and without Kenya, it is a 'pipe dream' in the true sense of the word. When negotiating you need to think like the person you are engaging! Think... "what is their interest in this matter?" - "How can I align my interests with theirs so that I can rope them in?". Sometimes when verbalising this analysis and playing devil's advocate, untrained observers may think that the person articulating what they perceive as interest of the other party as being pro-the other camp and thus a sellout. I don't think there is a kenyan who wants LAPPSET to fail but there are objective people who can see WHY IT WOULD FAIL. They are not wishing for it's failure they are just objective enough to see why a partner would not join us in that journey. We should address their "Why"s not attack them for not being on our side. Nani alisema Raila alienda TZ kuTuuza? The Pipeline decision was made by the group paying for it's being built... Total! We are wasting emotions and intellect thinking that somehow Bwana Pombe and Bwana Museveni want to screw us. @ Masukuma, I admire your objectivity in this discussion. They say if you think of life as like a big pie, you can try to hold the whole pie and kill yourself trying to keep it, or you can slice it up and give some to the people around you, and you still have plenty left for yourself. UG/TZ interests might not be Kenya's. @ Much Know, you can’t argue on the guise of ethics or patriotism to bully countries or people to buy things and/or projects they don’t need with money they don’t have (loans) to impress people they don’t know. “The world has enough for everyone's need, but not enough for everyone's greed.” ― Mahatma Gandhi Mr.Thiongo and Masukuma, there is 100% no objectivity or insight (i speak as an expert), What are these "best interest" you talk of that don't have you in mind? I know some here are experts in each and everything, this is a WHITE ELEPHANT for Uganda and it's people, and the French are taking advantage of "thick Africans" as usual. When did the French become more interested than Kenya in regional affairs? When did they fall in love with Uganda after our long struggle for regional cooperation, wametoka wapi suddenly after we had long made good plans thinking about the region? exploiting greed and ignorance, that's their game? Ati the French, ask Kagame and Congo how good this french businessmen are, and how nicely they manage whatever they dig up there leaving the Africans fighting. Why dont they add value to what they have been stealing from africa in Africa, the cocoa e.t.c? Total is in trouble and are forcing a loan down Ugandas throat to save themselves! My questions is why people like you argue against their own best interest "pretending to have clever reasons", this is the problem with Africa. You are thinking somewhere in 1980s! If you have read some of the preceding comments on the oil industry perhaps you will understand what we are talking about. Who will Uganda "export" all this oil to, and i am saying this as an expert in environmental technology. China for example (one of the best customers) have to cut down it's hydrocarbon dependence which is close to 100% now by 30%, and use solar in less than a DECADE, they are signing commitments to Paris deal by september, US has started selling oil for the first time in history, you have been told what is happening in the car industry. You have been told the oil price may never go up again, TRUE oil is in shambles and currently and most likely in future only Saudis can export profitably, why is Uganda investing so heavily in a 'maybe' and doubling "East African Cost" after being cheated by the French. You can argue for the French and against "your own best interest" Kenya, but don't try to make it look like a case of exceptional "logical" thinking, it's a very bad idea! Wata burn vibaya!! Ras Kienyeji Man
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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Swenani wrote:Musimo wrote:limanika wrote:sitaki.kujulikana wrote:masukuma wrote:limanika wrote:sitaki.kujulikana wrote:oil and sub sahara africa do not go together, its a blessing in disguise, continual focus should be on wind, solar and geothermal energy.
in like 20 years those pipelines will be like those coffee plantations in central kenya. In fact kenya should delay construction of the crude pipeline for the longest time, no point doing it right now coz with current crude prices theres very little to make out of it due to too many sharks waiting on the sidelines. ION, Tullow already slapping GoK with sh 150billion bill, quite outrageous if you ask me. We simply don't have strategy. If you don't plan, someone plans for you Do you do it for now or for the future? Will oil prices rise again? Oil prices will likely never rise again in future, if you look at the direction the car industry is taking, plus there are more smaller producers coming in whose cost of extracting is high, the saudis and iranians will make sure its just at a level where they make a profit while locking out all the others, and that is the sweet spot of 30-40 If you really think about it, why do we have to build a pipeline facing one particular direction (to the coast) without even thinking? So we can power industries in other markets, who in turn manufacture goods using our oil and sell to us at inflated prices? Typical African thinking. Why not build pipeline from source to Nairobi and other major towns for our own consumption? We could import only those ingredients needed to make the final product. Kenya has over 500,000 motor vehicles, assuming an average consumption of 5litrs/day/vehicle, we dish out over 50b annually to Middle East in oil purchases. If we used our reserves for home consumption, this money will remain in Kenya, creating jobs. And by the way, what is 600million barrels? Some countries like US have billions in strategic national reserves nobody can touch - for national security. Why would anyone want to give away all that he has, for nothing in return? This 600 million is for a speck in lokichar basin's sea, most of this basin is unexplored. then add in the recent kerio valley find of over 700m oil shows, biggest so far is around 200m net oil pay. Funny enough, check out map number 2 from africa oil showing the proposed pipeline route, it's like uganda wasnt on plan http://www.africaoilcorp.com/s/project-maps.asp Also shows where the oil finds have been, vis-a vis the basins marked high probability of finds. needle and haystack come to mind. I think they were to do a well in the nyanza basin, which is believed to be a copy-paste of uganda's albertine basin. Some other part of the development program most people did not understand was that the pipeline from wherever all the way to lamu was an export line. a refinery is planned for isiolo. surely, this means local consumption, maybe regional Que competition for market between UG and kenya... So much to write about this topic, haitaisha leo Is the oil refinery in Isiolo still viable considering Kenya and TZ are going to have a share in Uganda's refinery? Main aim of the foreign companies is export of crude (maximum output within shortest time possible) so they can recoup their investment and make a kill. Local refinery is the last thing in their mind. And they make us get into headless chicken fight with TZ over useless pipeline. I Wait for the day oil will be discovered in France and Kenyan or uganda company does the exraction
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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Much Know wrote:Thiong'o wrote:masukuma wrote:Much Know wrote:masukuma wrote:These days I am thinking so much in the lines of "Mwamba Ngoma huvuta pande yake". Quick question? Why do we assume that Uganda is here for our interests? Or TZ is here to shortcut us? That TZ is always looking for opportunities to screw us? Uganda primarily is in this thing for it's interests! Why did Total decide the way it did? It's interests! Thinking it's something else is missing the point. Arguing on Wazua like Kenya is the senior country in EAC is missing the point! All countries in EAC are in it for themselves primarily and if it works out that there is a nexus then cooperation is made easier. Poleni but it's all business not personal! Mwamba ngoma anavuta pande yake! People can be unaware of what is in their best interest, infact many think tribal thinking is in their interest whereas it is not. Greedy corrupt people and thieves think they are working in their interest and they are usually not. The question is why should some Kenyans look after the interest of UG/TZ and not their own? Ask why, why why? Wivu ama ujinga, ETHICS, ethics supersedes what one may think or what one may argue is their interest, without ethical politics. There is no other answer, wivu au ujinga, there is no 'good reason'. Why should a Kenyan sneak to make deals that undermine our (his own peoples) interest, that's the problem here, UG/TZ can build their own but it is not cost effective and without Kenya, it is a 'pipe dream' in the true sense of the word. When negotiating you need to think like the person you are engaging! Think... "what is their interest in this matter?" - "How can I align my interests with theirs so that I can rope them in?". Sometimes when verbalising this analysis and playing devil's advocate, untrained observers may think that the person articulating what they perceive as interest of the other party as being pro-the other camp and thus a sellout. I don't think there is a kenyan who wants LAPPSET to fail but there are objective people who can see WHY IT WOULD FAIL. They are not wishing for it's failure they are just objective enough to see why a partner would not join us in that journey. We should address their "Why"s not attack them for not being on our side. Nani alisema Raila alienda TZ kuTuuza? The Pipeline decision was made by the group paying for it's being built... Total! We are wasting emotions and intellect thinking that somehow Bwana Pombe and Bwana Museveni want to screw us. @ Masukuma, I admire your objectivity in this discussion. They say if you think of life as like a big pie, you can try to hold the whole pie and kill yourself trying to keep it, or you can slice it up and give some to the people around you, and you still have plenty left for yourself. UG/TZ interests might not be Kenya's. @ Much Know, you can’t argue on the guise of ethics or patriotism to bully countries or people to buy things and/or projects they don’t need with money they don’t have (loans) to impress people they don’t know. “The world has enough for everyone's need, but not enough for everyone's greed.” ― Mahatma Gandhi Mr.Thiongo and Masukuma, there is 100% no objectivity or insight (i speak as an expert), What are these "best interest" you talk of that don't have you in mind? I know some here are experts in each and everything, this is a WHITE ELEPHANT for Uganda and it's people, and the French are taking advantage of "thick Africans" as usual. When did the French become more interested than Kenya in regional affairs? When did they fall in love with Uganda after our long struggle for regional cooperation, wametoka wapi suddenly after we had long made good plans thinking about the region? exploiting greed and ignorance, that's their game? Ati the French, ask Kagame and Congo how good this french businessmen are, and how nicely they manage whatever they dig up there leaving the Africans fighting. Why dont they add value to what they have been stealing from africa in Africa, the cocoa e.t.c? Total is in trouble and are forcing a loan down Ugandas throat to save themselves! My questions is why people like you argue against their own best interest "pretending to have clever reasons", this is the problem with Africa. You are thinking somewhere in 1980s! If you have read some of the preceding comments on the oil industry perhaps you will understand what we are talking about. Who will Uganda "export" all this oil to, and i am saying this as an expert in environmental technology. China for example (one of the best customers) have to cut down it's hydrocarbon dependence which is close to 100% now by 30%, and use solar in less than a DECADE, they are signing commitments to Paris deal by september, US has started selling oil for the first time in history, you have been told what is happening in the car industry. You have been told the oil price may never go up again, TRUE oil is in shambles and currently and most likely in future only Saudis can export profitably, why is Uganda investing so heavily in a 'maybe' and doubling "East African Cost" after being cheated by the French. You can argue for the French and against "your own best interest" Kenya, but don't try to make it look like a case of exceptional "logical" thinking, it's a very bad idea! Wata burn vibaya!!  If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/3/2012 Posts: 1,317
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Much Know wrote:Mr.Thiongo and Masukuma, there is 100% no objectivity or insight (i speak as an expert), What are these "best interest" you talk of that don't have you in mind? I know some here are experts in each and everything, this is a WHITE ELEPHANT for Uganda and it's people, and the French are taking advantage of "thick Africans" as usual. When did the French become more interested than Kenya in regional affairs? When did they fall in love with Uganda after our long struggle for regional cooperation, wametoka wapi suddenly after we had long made good plans thinking about the region? exploiting greed and ignorance, that's their game? Ati the French, ask Kagame and Congo how good this french businessmen are, and how nicely they manage whatever they dig up there leaving the Africans fighting. Why dont they add value to what they have been stealing from africa in Africa, the cocoa e.t.c? Total is in trouble and are forcing a loan down Ugandas throat to save themselves! My questions is why people like you argue against their own best interest "pretending to have clever reasons", this is the problem with Africa. You are thinking somewhere in 1980s! If you have read some of the preceding comments on the oil industry perhaps you will understand what we are talking about. Who will Uganda "export" all this oil to, and i am saying this as an expert in environmental technology. China for example (one of the best customers) have to cut down it's hydrocarbon dependence which is close to 100% now by 30%, and use solar in less than a DECADE, they are signing commitments to Paris deal by september, US has started selling oil for the first time in history, you have been told what is happening in the car industry. You have been told the oil price may never go up again, TRUE oil is in shambles and currently and most likely in future only Saudis can export profitably, why is Uganda investing so heavily in a 'maybe' and doubling "East African Cost" after being cheated by the French. You can argue for the French and against "your own best interest" Kenya, but don't try to make it look like a case of exceptional "logical" thinking, it's a very bad idea! Wata burn vibaya!! Possibility thinking vs Negativity thinking
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