wazua Thu, Mar 19, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

569 Pages«<540541542543544>»
How to tell NSE has bottomed out
hisah
#5411 Posted : Wednesday, April 13, 2016 11:34:39 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
Not yet?

Go to post #1. Different conditions at the moment and worse we have the banking sector in a fix. When banks trip you hold your cash for you can't tell when the next shoe will fall off. The market will only form a proper floor in such an environment when the liquidity taps are flood opened. The CB has to do a sizable rate cut or initiate other market operation tools for sizable liquidity injection.

The market has been pessimistic since last yeart then when the weak recovery was building up another bank falls!

To shift extreme sentiments you need to shock the market the other way. The CB will have to come out with a bazooka KES be damned!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
lochaz-index
#5412 Posted : Friday, April 15, 2016 10:16:26 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
Not yet?

Go to post #1. Different conditions at the moment and worse we have the banking sector in a fix. When banks trip you hold your cash for you can't tell when the next shoe will fall off. The market will only form a proper floor in such an environment when the liquidity taps are flood opened. The CB has to do a sizable rate cut or initiate other market operation tools for sizable liquidity injection.

The market has been pessimistic since last yeart then when the weak recovery was building up another bank falls!

To shift extreme sentiments you need to shock the market the other way. The CB will have to come out with a bazooka KES be damned!

Market anxiety is palpable. Participants are getting fidgety by the day. The indices have been literally mark timing since Q4 2015.

I am no chartist/technical analyst but the only other period we had such a scenario was immediately after we hit the all time high of 6161. A quick slide then a stagnation/back and forth action between a narrow range of 4800-5300 for nearly a year. In the meantime, while those levels held steady the fundies kept deteriorating.

Back to present conditions, even the collapse of chase bank seems not to have dented anything. The economy is definitely not in good shape, the govt managed to dodge the January/February payday on its ever growing debt burden. ..how long till this cat and mouse game comes to its inevitable end, pressing forward with the second eurobond to me is reckless or an act of desperation.

Global economy is not a source of consolation either. IMF is dead set to unleash hell on account of a Brexit. So again, how long till the indices cave in?



The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
sparkly
#5413 Posted : Saturday, April 16, 2016 8:13:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
Not yet?

Go to post #1. Different conditions at the moment and worse we have the banking sector in a fix. When banks trip you hold your cash for you can't tell when the next shoe will fall off. The market will only form a proper floor in such an environment when the liquidity taps are flood opened. The CB has to do a sizable rate cut or initiate other market operation tools for sizable liquidity injection.

The market has been pessimistic since last yeart then when the weak recovery was building up another bank falls!

To shift extreme sentiments you need to shock the market the other way. The CB will have to come out with a bazooka KES be damned!



@Hisah look at the NSE/DJIA 5yr chart. The two decoupled beginning 2015. DJIA seems to have formed a double bottom in the last 9 months and poised to go higher.

Life is short. Live passionately.
hisah
#5414 Posted : Sunday, April 17, 2016 9:50:06 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
Not yet?

Go to post #1. Different conditions at the moment and worse we have the banking sector in a fix. When banks trip you hold your cash for you can't tell when the next shoe will fall off. The market will only form a proper floor in such an environment when the liquidity taps are flood opened. The CB has to do a sizable rate cut or initiate other market operation tools for sizable liquidity injection.

The market has been pessimistic since last yeart then when the weak recovery was building up another bank falls!

To shift extreme sentiments you need to shock the market the other way. The CB will have to come out with a bazooka KES be damned!



@Hisah look at the NSE/DJIA 5yr chart. The two decoupled beginning 2015. DJIA seems to have formed a double bottom in the last 9 months and poised to go higher.



Dow is depicting international flight to quality flows. Return OF CAPITAL is the new norm! But will Dow stay afloat while S&P and Nasdaq look heavy while euroland is on a tailspin and Jap is poised to meltdown anytime?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
instinct
#5415 Posted : Wednesday, April 20, 2016 10:58:55 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/17/2007
Posts: 294
I note that the following situation prevails at the moment

1. Tbill rates are back to single digit levels (9%) for the last 2 weeks and there is nothing to suggest they are going back up soon.
2. The two banks that were offering high fixed deposit rates have collapsed and investors are bound to be scared of similar banks
3. The shilling has been stable since the beginning of the year
4. Stock prices are at their lowest in recent times

Do these factors suggest that we may see a flight of domestic capital towards the stock market within the next 2-4weeks?
mlennyma
#5416 Posted : Thursday, April 21, 2016 10:05:57 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
instinct wrote:
I note that the following situation prevails at the moment

1. Tbill rates are back to single digit levels (9%) for the last 2 weeks and there is nothing to suggest they are going back up soon.
2. The two banks that were offering high fixed deposit rates have collapsed and investors are bound to be scared of similar banks
3. The shilling has been stable since the beginning of the year
4. Stock prices are at their lowest in recent times

Do these factors suggest that we may see a flight of domestic capital towards the stock market within the next 2-4weeks?

many thought after results releasing season ends the market with start a second tanking but many stocks have since recovered from their all time lows,this is when i ignore every prophet and act as myself
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Spikes
#5417 Posted : Thursday, April 21, 2016 10:16:49 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
mlennyma wrote:
instinct wrote:
I note that the following situation prevails at the moment

1. Tbill rates are back to single digit levels (9%) for the last 2 weeks and there is nothing to suggest they are going back up soon.
2. The two banks that were offering high fixed deposit rates have collapsed and investors are bound to be scared of similar banks
3. The shilling has been stable since the beginning of the year
4. Stock prices are at their lowest in recent times

Do these factors suggest that we may see a flight of domestic capital towards the stock market within the next 2-4weeks?

many thought after results releasing season ends the market with start a second tanking but many stocks have since recovered from their all time lows,this is when i ignore every prophet and act as myself



The market will tank. It is a matter of time before we see another deeper leg south.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
lochaes
#5418 Posted : Thursday, April 21, 2016 10:28:05 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 6/30/2014
Posts: 86
Location: nairobi
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
instinct wrote:
I note that the following situation prevails at the moment

1. Tbill rates are back to single digit levels (9%) for the last 2 weeks and there is nothing to suggest they are going back up soon.
2. The two banks that were offering high fixed deposit rates have collapsed and investors are bound to be scared of similar banks
3. The shilling has been stable since the beginning of the year
4. Stock prices are at their lowest in recent times

Do these factors suggest that we may see a flight of domestic capital towards the stock market within the next 2-4weeks?

many thought after results releasing season ends the market with start a second tanking but many stocks have since recovered from their all time lows,this is when i ignore every prophet and act as myself



The market will tank. It is a matter of time before we see another deeper leg south.


Prophet of doomLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Hauchoki??
koscielny
#5419 Posted : Thursday, April 21, 2016 11:33:37 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 2/19/2016
Posts: 31
Location: Kenya
lochaes wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
instinct wrote:
I note that the following situation prevails at the moment

1. Tbill rates are back to single digit levels (9%) for the last 2 weeks and there is nothing to suggest they are going back up soon.
2. The two banks that were offering high fixed deposit rates have collapsed and investors are bound to be scared of similar banks
3. The shilling has been stable since the beginning of the year
4. Stock prices are at their lowest in recent times

Do these factors suggest that we may see a flight of domestic capital towards the stock market within the next 2-4weeks?

many thought after results releasing season ends the market with start a second tanking but many stocks have since recovered from their all time lows,this is when i ignore every prophet and act as myself



The market will tank. It is a matter of time before we see another deeper leg south.


Prophet of doomLaughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Hauchoki??

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Been reading through different threads and exactly the same thought crossed my mind! It would be interesting to know which counter(s) @Spikes holds smile
The Best is Yet to Come
murchr
#5420 Posted : Thursday, April 21, 2016 5:33:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
NSE20 might hit 4000 next week
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
569 Pages«<540541542543544>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.