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Chase Bank loss...another case of cooking the books?
sitaki.kujulikana
#361 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 6:35:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/25/2012
Posts: 1,826
were bank runs during the gold era same as today, most transactions are electronic nowadays. I thought a run should be easier to manage as opposed to when everyone would come to collect their gold or promissory notes or whatever paper money is.
sitaki.kujulikana
#362 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 6:39:11 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/25/2012
Posts: 1,826
Much Know wrote:
alma1 wrote:
murchr wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Just to correct this bullshit idea being sold here that "no bank can withstand a run", hio ni ujinga ya 19th century. A modern bank should be able to withstand run, and often carries out tests on it's own called "stress tests", these are simple tests that can be carried out by any serious banker and central bank (it is apparently what they are doing now). Those who were keen during the 2008 financial crisis will remember banks like JP Morgan emphasizing they are ready for a run. There are credit risk analysis, liquidity analysis etc to ensure in any case you can quickly convert some assets to cover "mass withdrawas", lakini kama umeweka pesa Panama ama in speculatory burotis and apartments in Nairobi shauri yako. THERE IS NO WAY ON EARTH social media can bring down a bank! CBK governor ongeza stress!!!!


Why cant you just name one bank that you know has undergone this kind of "stress test". Is that JP Morgue the same bank that imposed withdrawal limits?


He can't name one. Even his Waiguru did not survive a run.

Ziko zimefanya hii Kenya for sure!!! And they can't collapse! Hata social media iseme aje!

I remember sometime back when rumors were doing the rounds that equity was collapsing and a lot of guys started withdrawing cash, I wonder how member handled that, even my folks got out their pension money.
enyands
#363 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 6:47:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
sitaki.kujulikana wrote:
Much Know wrote:
alma1 wrote:
murchr wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Just to correct this bullshit idea being sold here that "no bank can withstand a run", hio ni ujinga ya 19th century. A modern bank should be able to withstand run, and often carries out tests on it's own called "stress tests", these are simple tests that can be carried out by any serious banker and central bank (it is apparently what they are doing now). Those who were keen during the 2008 financial crisis will remember banks like JP Morgan emphasizing they are ready for a run. There are credit risk analysis, liquidity analysis etc to ensure in any case you can quickly convert some assets to cover "mass withdrawas", lakini kama umeweka pesa Panama ama in speculatory burotis and apartments in Nairobi shauri yako. THERE IS NO WAY ON EARTH social media can bring down a bank! CBK governor ongeza stress!!!!


Why cant you just name one bank that you know has undergone this kind of "stress test". Is that JP Morgue the same bank that imposed withdrawal limits?


He can't name one. Even his Waiguru did not survive a run.

Ziko zimefanya hii Kenya for sure!!! And they can't collapse! Hata social media iseme aje!

I remember sometime back when rumors were doing the rounds that equity was collapsing and a lot of guys started withdrawing cash, I wonder how member handled that, even my folks got out their pension money.



Equity was able to start the test run. Some banks their books are so down that should a test run be done they can't survive eg chase . A strong bank shouldn't be shaken by even wind .member did it
Much Know
#364 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 6:49:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
sitaki.kujulikana wrote:
were bank runs during the gold era same as today, most transactions are electronic nowadays. I thought a run should be easier to manage as opposed to when everyone would come to collect their gold or promissory notes or whatever paper money is.

Exactly why am saying some people are in the 19th century boss, with technology and a CLEAN system banks that are simply thieves collapse on their own, its easier to steal paper money! Utashikwa tu, hakuna story kama socio media, your bank closes itself up, somewhat like evolution!
A New Kenya
enyands
#365 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 6:53:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
Much Know wrote:
sitaki.kujulikana wrote:
were bank runs during the gold era same as today, most transactions are electronic nowadays. I thought a run should be easier to manage as opposed to when everyone would come to collect their gold or promissory notes or whatever paper money is.

Exactly why am saying some people are in the 19th century boss, with technology and a CLEAN system banks that are simply thieves collapse on their own, its easier to steal paper money! Utashikwa tu, hakuna story kama socio media, your bank closes itself up, somewhat like evolution!



Change that to chocho
FRM2011
#366 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 7:05:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/5/2010
Posts: 2,459
As someone is blaming social media here, just know that traditional media has lost its mantle to the new media long time.

During the imperial bank crisis a blogger going by the name @owaah, did the most comprehensive write-up on the subject matter.

Right now people are requesting him to do the same for chase bank. Some of his followers on Twitter include prof. Mbithi (uon vc) frank ireri (hf ceo), knbs, nbk and many many bigwigs.

Between Wednesday and Thursday, a hitherto unknown Twitter user @manwamagoma broke down the chase bank fraud in a series of 100 tweets. Funny thing, he is neither a banker, economist or finance specialist but even Dr. David Ndii thought his was the most comprehensive piece. Btw he discovered the theft started in 2012 from published accounts. On Wed morning he had 1000 followers, today-5000. Again, all the bigwigs are following him.

Now when terryanne chebet and that chidzuga girl attempted to jump into the chase bank debate, KOT literally chased them away and exposed their shallow grasp of financial matters.

The world is changing people. Continue blaming social media.
alma1
#367 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 7:12:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/19/2015
Posts: 2,871
Location: hapo
Who is this that has a software that can stop a bank run?

There is only one bank that can survive a bank run. That's the Central Bank....Because they shall print the money and tell you to go on your way.

When you deposit 100 bob, the money is not kept in a safe.

It is lent out to someone else pronto. As in hapo hapo.

So from your 100 bob, Kamau is given 50, the bank is required by law to keep it in reserve, lets assume its 20% (i don't know the kenyan amount) and the bank goes to buy another kaplot with the remaining 30 bob.

In actual sense, the only money that the bank has that is yours is 20 bob.

So imagine a rumor that a bank is closing down. Let's go withdraw our money.

All that the bank has is your 20 bob.

So in the evening after all the chocho media economics gurus have withdrawn their money, the bank can go and borrow from the other banks for the night.

In this case, the withdrawals were so much that they couldn't even borrow from the other banks and the CBK decided to stop the madness.

It is madness because the moment you allow a bank run on one bank, other banks are also going to be affected. You see what happened at Rafiki. Who knows what has happened to the other small banks?

There are two issues here and they are not mutually inclusive.

1. The management was not ethical probably illegally dummifying the numbers.

2. There was someone and some people who shouted FIRE in a theatre.

You know they are feeling guilty when they continuously say and want to prove that its not their fault.

This is not a political debate though. There is no debating or points of views in economics and math.

When everyone goes to take money from their bank on Monday, there is no bank that shall survive.

You may tell yourself that if you wish to, but its not true.
Thieves are not good people. Tumeelewana?

newfarer
#368 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 7:49:21 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2010
Posts: 3,504
Location: Uganda
alma how did equity survive that run caused by social media ?

a 16 billion hole cannot be filled overnight too. I'm sad for my honest friends who worked at Chase.
punda amecheka
murchr
#369 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 7:55:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Much Know wrote:
sitaki.kujulikana wrote:
were bank runs during the gold era same as today, most transactions are electronic nowadays. I thought a run should be easier to manage as opposed to when everyone would come to collect their gold or promissory notes or whatever paper money is.

Exactly why am saying some people are in the 19th century boss, with technology and a CLEAN system banks that are simply thieves collapse on their own, its easier to steal paper money! Utashikwa tu, hakuna story kama socio media, your bank closes itself up, somewhat like evolution!


The Bank run that caused the great depression in 1929


If the mongering is not stopped, most banks would collapse
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
enyands
#370 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 7:57:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
newfarer wrote:
alma how did equity survive that run caused by social media ?

a 16 billion hole cannot be filled overnight too. I'm sad for my honest friends who worked at Chase.


Good point
enyands
#371 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 8:01:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
murchr wrote:
Much Know wrote:
sitaki.kujulikana wrote:
were bank runs during the gold era same as today, most transactions are electronic nowadays. I thought a run should be easier to manage as opposed to when everyone would come to collect their gold or promissory notes or whatever paper money is.

Exactly why am saying some people are in the 19th century boss, with technology and a CLEAN system banks that are simply thieves collapse on their own, its easier to steal paper money! Utashikwa tu, hakuna story kama socio media, your bank closes itself up, somewhat like evolution!


The Bank run that caused the great depression in 1929


If the mongering is not stopped, most banks would collapse



Some politicians will use the chocho media to run down banks to score points in upcoming elections .so I agree they should be controlled. Also beside that the banks should be able to stand the ran too should chocho be out of control of govt
murchr
#372 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 8:10:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
enyands wrote:
sitaki.kujulikana wrote:
Much Know wrote:
alma1 wrote:
murchr wrote:
Much Know wrote:
Just to correct this bullshit idea being sold here that "no bank can withstand a run", hio ni ujinga ya 19th century. A modern bank should be able to withstand run, and often carries out tests on it's own called "stress tests", these are simple tests that can be carried out by any serious banker and central bank (it is apparently what they are doing now). Those who were keen during the 2008 financial crisis will remember banks like JP Morgan emphasizing they are ready for a run. There are credit risk analysis, liquidity analysis etc to ensure in any case you can quickly convert some assets to cover "mass withdrawas", lakini kama umeweka pesa Panama ama in speculatory burotis and apartments in Nairobi shauri yako. THERE IS NO WAY ON EARTH social media can bring down a bank! CBK governor ongeza stress!!!!


Why cant you just name one bank that you know has undergone this kind of "stress test". Is that JP Morgue the same bank that imposed withdrawal limits?


He can't name one. Even his Waiguru did not survive a run.

Ziko zimefanya hii Kenya for sure!!! And they can't collapse! Hata social media iseme aje!

I remember sometime back when rumors were doing the rounds that equity was collapsing and a lot of guys started withdrawing cash, I wonder how member handled that, even my folks got out their pension money.



Equity was able to start the test run. Some banks their books are so down that should a test run be done they can't survive eg chase . A strong bank shouldn't be shaken by even wind .member did it


When the rumors were rife about Equity, most of the noisemakers were not banking with Equity and 2, those with accounts opted to trust management. 3 There were no previous banks that had been on receivership to cause panic at that time. 4 The bloggers back then were politically motivated Equity was termed as the "Kikuyu Bank" and those kikuyus opted to stay. The environment was different

Avoid copy and pasting situations
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
gk
#373 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 10:35:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/17/2008
Posts: 488
Run, run, run..... Not every other massive withdrawal will cause a bank to collapse. Equity did not lose much relative to its total deposit base n its was not a one day drainage. Even last yr after Imperial's fall most smaller lenders had a run but survived just as Chase would have remained afloat had they managed to plug the huge n sudden hole by the following morning.
So long as you can honour your settlemnts at CBK,,, there is a lifeline.
Methinks Chase had some few heavy depositors who jumped ship on the day.... coz they could have survived a run by retail depositors.
iris
#374 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 10:57:29 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/11/2014
Posts: 228
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
Much Know wrote:
sitaki.kujulikana wrote:
were bank runs during the gold era same as today, most transactions are electronic nowadays. I thought a run should be easier to manage as opposed to when everyone would come to collect their gold or promissory notes or whatever paper money is.

Exactly why am saying some people are in the 19th century boss, with technology and a CLEAN system banks that are simply thieves collapse on their own, its easier to steal paper money! Utashikwa tu, hakuna story kama socio media, your bank closes itself up, somewhat like evolution!


The Bank run that caused the great depression in 1929


If the mongering is not stopped, most banks would collapse


How do you propose to stop that? Most of us agree social media contributed; this is merely behaviour, that is not even criminal; perhaps selfish but definitely not criminal. Criminal behaviour is that of the directors. It is almost like asking us Kenyans to stop being disorderly and selfish at roundabouts during heavy rains. It is no doubt easier and more sensible to direct effort towards directors behaving badly. And social media is unstoppable, I believe.
Mike Ock
#375 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 11:02:55 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/22/2015
Posts: 682
A good summary of Manwa Magoma's tweets on the matter. Read from bottom to top: https://storify.com/Manw...-financial-records-story
washiku
#376 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 11:25:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/9/2007
Posts: 13,095
sitaki.kujulikana
#377 Posted : Saturday, April 09, 2016 11:44:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/25/2012
Posts: 1,826
gk wrote:
Run, run, run..... Not every other massive withdrawal will cause a bank to collapse. Equity did not lose much relative to its total deposit base n its was not a one day drainage. Even last yr after Imperial's fall most smaller lenders had a run but survived just as Chase would have remained afloat had they managed to plug the huge n sudden hole by the following morning.
So long as you can honour your settlemnts at CBK,,, there is a lifeline.
Methinks Chase had some few heavy depositors who jumped ship on the day.... coz they could have survived a run by retail depositors.

Interesting point, I would also expect a bank in this day and age to be able to deal with a bank run, of course unless there are some other deeper factors.
murchr
#378 Posted : Sunday, April 10, 2016 1:55:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
iris wrote:
murchr wrote:
Much Know wrote:
sitaki.kujulikana wrote:
were bank runs during the gold era same as today, most transactions are electronic nowadays. I thought a run should be easier to manage as opposed to when everyone would come to collect their gold or promissory notes or whatever paper money is.

Exactly why am saying some people are in the 19th century boss, with technology and a CLEAN system banks that are simply thieves collapse on their own, its easier to steal paper money! Utashikwa tu, hakuna story kama socio media, your bank closes itself up, somewhat like evolution!


The Bank run that caused the great depression in 1929


If the mongering is not stopped, most banks would collapse


How do you propose to stop that? Most of us agree social media contributed; this is merely behaviour, that is not even criminal; perhaps selfish but definitely not criminal. Criminal behaviour is that of the directors. It is almost like asking us Kenyans to stop being disorderly and selfish at roundabouts during heavy rains. It is no doubt easier and more sensible to direct effort towards directors behaving badly. And social media is unstoppable, I believe.


The behavior should change. Herd mentality
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
enyands
#379 Posted : Sunday, April 10, 2016 3:33:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
From one and only CAROLINE mutoko
Quote:



Go
TODAY · CUSTOM
The story around Chase bank and our banking sector as a whole has made a lot of us nervous. Very Nervous. We seem to be really impressed (I won't use words like happy) with the way our new CBK governor is handling the matter - but we have quite a ways to go. I hope he can weather this storm.
First off the bat - the goodwill, the spirit and the will to keep Chase alive, to bring every doctor from near and far, to perform the necessary surgery to save patient Chase is commendable. No one is willing to see ChaseBank die. Not it's customers (obviously) not the rest of the financial sector, the business community or the rest of the country. The death of Chase is unacceptable. However this is why we also must support the CBK Governor in his efforts to bring sanity to the sector. That said, when all the memes and jokes and stories, including mine are done - two things are important. There must be restitution and jailtime. Say it with me, restitution and jailtime. Make it a hashtag, make it trend - it's one we need.
However, before I continue with my very difficult and maybe controversial narrative allow me to state without hesitation that I stand by my sentiments on Chase Bank. Whatever I said on Youtube, whatever I may have tweeted or put on Facebook in their favour - I stand by it. Business don't fail - leaders do. The 1000 plus odd people who work for Chase, who have built a formidable, disruptive brand over 20years cannot and should be be burnt at the stake because a few at the helm lost sight of the shore. I never put my name, my voice or my brand behind something or someone I am not willing to defend and I stand by my thoughts and utterances on Chase.
Let's be honest, I’m not alone. The reason we are sad and shocked rather than mad is because we not only believed in Chase, we are actually holding out against hope that there will be a way to salvage this. I see we have even started a petition - proof once again that Chase is a gem. That the people who work at ChaseBank have done a stirling job with that brand.
I am told that the real workers of Chase (not the thugs) the people who build that brand over time are still showing up at work and taking their marching orders from CBK with calmness and pride. A little bird told me that Friday 8th March 2016 was simply impressive because after saying a prayer they in unison shouted "Go Chase!!!". I echo them and continue to wish them well. In years to come when we tell this story, we will start with the words "a few years ago, we had an amazing bank in Kenya called Chase....."
Chase is a gem and what the CBK governor did on Thursday morning 7th April 2016; was preserve that gem. If he had allowed the bank to open it's doors and go through one more run, we would be telling a very different story about everything in Kenya and for everyone not just for Chase customers and business partners - everyone.
I have taken a very deep breathe so I can type this next sentence. We must let Chase Go. There is no coming back. Hear me out.
Dr. Njoroge and Chasebank has suitors galore who want to rescue this damsel in distress called Chase. What I believe he cannot do is speak to foreign suitors at all. In my humble estimation, Njoroge has 3 options, the first two are pretty but have no staying power.
Option 1 - Allow Chase's international partners to inject the much needed money and make it look good and open the doors. Bad idea. The day the doors open, we will all line up and withdraw our money and close Chase. Trust is hard to win back. Intritigy is even harder.
Option 2 - Allow internationa suitors to take it over and inject the necessary money and either open doors as Chase or as a new brand. It will months to make that happen. The result however will be the same as above. When the doors open, we will all walk in and take our money out. We don't know the "new guys" and our relationship took a serious hit. Chase would still be history.
Option 3 - Allow a local suitor or 2 to take up our accounts and take up Chase. If for example KCB (my apologies, I’m working with a basic names) was to announce that an agreement had been reached and my bank account at Chase was now domiciled at KCB or for those who love the premier feel - NIC. My first instinct wouldn't be to run and withdraw it all. This for me is the only viable way forward. If a local trusted brand (given, without the bells and whistles we enjoy at Chase) was to take us on - calm would return to the land.
If I knew I could exchange my Chase ATM card for a KCB or Equity card. If I could exchange my Chase cheque book for an NIC or Equity cheque book. If I knew that I would be issued a new bank account number and on checking at the ATM or on my phone, I could see my bank balance and even withdraw a few shillings, I would be calm. We would all be calmer and the economy and the business environment would breathe easier for it.
I’m not reaching. It has been done before in Kenya with Consolidated Bank and it was done with Bank of America and Merrill Lynch. Google remains your friend.
In a nutshell - we must be willing to let Chase go. The brand as we know it today is fragile at best. We must let Chase go because the selfish actions of a few have destroyed it. We must let Chase go if we all are to have a fighting chance and stop the already on-going run on other tier three banks. We must let Chase go, so we can learn to believe in the concept of banking again. I know some will read this and cry, get mad, get angry - but we must. A brand is built on two premises - a promise made and a promise delivered.
The brand, the gem, the promise that was Chase has been betrayed and we can only hope against hope that we can survive. We can never open those doors as Chase again and dare to believe that every Sacco, every Chama, every business, every individual won’t move to withdraw ALL their money - they will.
Someone very perceptive told me that you need to look for in bank, is return OF the money not return ON the money. If I woke up tomorrow and my Chase account and my money had found a new home at a local bank where I can trust i can get it when I want it - I'll be fine. But no matter what CBK does, we must never lose sight of the fact that there must be restitution and jail time. It is a necessity not a wish.
Dr. Njoroge over to you - Good luck and Godspeed.


Let him bring sanity in the banking area
murchr
#380 Posted : Sunday, April 10, 2016 5:28:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
gk wrote:
Run, run, run..... Not every other massive withdrawal will cause a bank to collapse. Equity did not lose much relative to its total deposit base n its was not a one day drainage. Even last yr after Imperial's fall most smaller lenders had a run but survived just as Chase would have remained afloat had they managed to plug the huge n sudden hole by the following morning.
So long as you can honour your settlemnts at CBK,,, there is a lifeline.
Methinks Chase had some few heavy depositors who jumped ship on the day.... coz they could have survived a run by retail depositors.


Sports Pesa
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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