Q1 closes today and so far 4000 is still slippery for NSE20. The profit warning carnage is now visible, which will pile pressure on Q1 and Q2 earnings. By Q3 election mood picks up. If by June a firm will not have worked out its cost controls in a tight econ, FY will be another sombre result. Once political circus starts I don't see any econ growth till the election period shuts down. Earnings dry spell till 2018.
NBK is falling from a descending wedge. Crazy prices coming up as mr market tries to find a floor! This will give gok sleepless nights. How much money can a broke gok afford to bailout msc, kq, nbk etc plus a pension tab? How many job losses before gok starts sweating? How many bad banks before KES starts wobbling?
Globally nothing interesting to write about. Negative Interest Rate (NIR) environment means capital will continue getting very defensive. Global equities feel topped out and waiting for the big fall. Oil will likely head below $25 in the next dip.
If there's something that keeps me awake is Japan. Their monetary experiment is a meth lab waiting to blow up all markets! Sovereign debt market is a disaster waiting to happen.
2016 will not be an easy to trade year. Markets appear cheap at the moment, but so did Q1 and Q2 in 2008. One shocking headline or two and the bottom will rapidly fall out. Cash is still king and the western world calls to ban it plus NIR policies confirm it! If you hoard cash you'll be enemy of the state! Coming soon... At that point sovereign debt bomb will have triggered and stocks will reverse the big selloff and float to all time highs as capital dumps govt debt and hoards blue chips stocks.
The summary is cash is king and if you choose to play risky assets be very very very choosy...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!