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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Kausha
#661 Posted : Saturday, March 26, 2016 8:35:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
VituVingiSana wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
If you can open it.

https://gallery.mailchim...efing_March_2016.01.pdf

Investor Briefing FY 2015 @Kausha @Aguy
Let's get the champagne ready!


Thanks. Awesome. This is the stuff I should be reading instead of that KQ thread.

Noticed @Cde is MIA from this thread.



Value trap? Pass mosdef.

Driven by hunger, a fox tried to reach some grapes hanging high on the vine but was unable to, although he leaped with all his strength. As he went away, the fox remarked 'Oh, you aren't even ripe yet! I don't need any sour grapes.'

People who speak disparagingly of things that they cannot attain would do well to apply this story to themselves.


@murchr
How you account for this is as follows.
When KK sold TZ as a going concern and Lubu as an asset you book the gain over historical cost or book value depending on how you hold the asset in your books. In KK's case the gain was approx 450m for the two assets. At the bottom you if you have losses or profits from discontinued operations you disclose them on a separate line. In KK's case, these were 464m. In summary the sale of KK had an immediate positive impact on cashflows because they received Ks 1.681B from the sale which was used to retire debt whereas the capital gain was offset by the loss from discontinued operations but going forward no more negatives from these Tz business for consolidation.
Kausha
#662 Posted : Saturday, March 26, 2016 9:02:51 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
@VVS you see why my 2.00 EPS is not a fantasy. My model tells me Kshs 1.00 EPS at half year worst case. First Half 2015 GP Margin was 5.2%, they closed on average for the year 6.7%. Janaury GP Margin 15%. February and March not too far below. Just need to cross fingers for April - June. Bring USD 5m upside for half 1 ( USD 400k/ month loss from TZ and the gain on currency of USD 2.3m they already have), we could be looking at a very interesting first half assuming no shockers. Squeeky bum time to end of June.

And not counting any windfall from KPC should they acquiesce.
Aguytrying
#663 Posted : Saturday, March 26, 2016 12:13:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Kausha wrote:
@VVS you see why my 2.00 EPS is not a fantasy. My model tells me Kshs 1.00 EPS at half year worst case. First Half 2015 GP Margin was 5.2%, they closed on average for the year 6.7%. Janaury GP Margin 15%. February and March not too far below. Just need to cross fingers for April - June. Bring USD 5m upside for half 1 ( USD 400k/ month loss from TZ and the gain on currency of USD 2.3m they already have), we could be looking at a very interesting first half assuming no shockers. Squeeky bum time to end of June.

And not counting any windfall from KPC should they acquiesce.


@VVS, Kausha. That investor conference has some hair raising information. I like how in touch he is with the core day to day operations. I hope this enthusiasm continues as kk grows after paying down debt.

On FY 2016 profit... The PAT for FY 2015 year was 2.01 bn that's what we're calculating eps with. On that basis I can estimate 2.5bn - 3.0bn for FY 2016. Or maybe even higher, because of all the advantages this year, namely. 465m loss from TZ not recurring, reduced finance cost due to lower debt. And possibly less foreign exchange losses but too early to tell. According to MD were already up 500k compared to last year at this time.

So 2.5- 3.0bn for me with a possibility of even higher. Thats at least 25% Growth in pat.

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Spikes
#664 Posted : Saturday, March 26, 2016 1:23:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Aguytrying wrote:
Kausha wrote:
@VVS you see why my 2.00 EPS is not a fantasy. My model tells me Kshs 1.00 EPS at half year worst case. First Half 2015 GP Margin was 5.2%, they closed on average for the year 6.7%. Janaury GP Margin 15%. February and March not too far below. Just need to cross fingers for April - June. Bring USD 5m upside for half 1 ( USD 400k/ month loss from TZ and the gain on currency of USD 2.3m they already have), we could be looking at a very interesting first half assuming no shockers. Squeeky bum time to end of June.

And not counting any windfall from KPC should they acquiesce.


@VVS, Kausha. That investor conference has some hair raising information. I like how in touch he is with the core day to day operations. I hope this enthusiasm continues as kk grows after paying down debt.

On FY 2016 profit... The PAT for FY 2015 year was 2.01 bn that's what we're calculating eps with. On that basis I can estimate 2.5bn - 3.0bn for FY 2016. Or maybe even higher, because of all the advantages this year, namely. 465m loss from TZ not recurring, reduced finance cost due to lower debt. And possibly less foreign exchange losses but too early to tell. According to MD were already up 500k compared to last year at this time.

So 2.5- 3.0bn for me with a possibility of even higher. Thats at least 25% Growth in pat.




I will join this bus when it has completely been drowned by the bear to 8/-
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Aguytrying
#665 Posted : Saturday, March 26, 2016 1:52:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Spikes wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Kausha wrote:
@VVS you see why my 2.00 EPS is not a fantasy. My model tells me Kshs 1.00 EPS at half year worst case. First Half 2015 GP Margin was 5.2%, they closed on average for the year 6.7%. Janaury GP Margin 15%. February and March not too far below. Just need to cross fingers for April - June. Bring USD 5m upside for half 1 ( USD 400k/ month loss from TZ and the gain on currency of USD 2.3m they already have), we could be looking at a very interesting first half assuming no shockers. Squeeky bum time to end of June.

And not counting any windfall from KPC should they acquiesce.


@VVS, Kausha. That investor conference has some hair raising information. I like how in touch he is with the core day to day operations. I hope this enthusiasm continues as kk grows after paying down debt.

On FY 2016 profit... The PAT for FY 2015 year was 2.01 bn that's what we're calculating eps with. On that basis I can estimate 2.5bn - 3.0bn for FY 2016. Or maybe even higher, because of all the advantages this year, namely. 465m loss from TZ not recurring, reduced finance cost due to lower debt. And possibly less foreign exchange losses but too early to tell. According to MD were already up 500k compared to last year at this time.

So 2.5- 3.0bn for me with a possibility of even higher. Thats at least 25% Growth in pat.




I will join this bus when it has completely been drowned by the bear to 8/-


8.00 would be a dream come true. I might have to sell a kidney to add more shares. Because 18-20 + is guaranteed in the next bull
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Gordon Gekko
#666 Posted : Saturday, March 26, 2016 6:50:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Aguytrying wrote:
Spikes wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Kausha wrote:
@VVS you see why my 2.00 EPS is not a fantasy. My model tells me Kshs 1.00 EPS at half year worst case. First Half 2015 GP Margin was 5.2%, they closed on average for the year 6.7%. Janaury GP Margin 15%. February and March not too far below. Just need to cross fingers for April - June. Bring USD 5m upside for half 1 ( USD 400k/ month loss from TZ and the gain on currency of USD 2.3m they already have), we could be looking at a very interesting first half assuming no shockers. Squeeky bum time to end of June.

And not counting any windfall from KPC should they acquiesce.


@VVS, Kausha. That investor conference has some hair raising information. I like how in touch he is with the core day to day operations. I hope this enthusiasm continues as kk grows after paying down debt.

On FY 2016 profit... The PAT for FY 2015 year was 2.01 bn that's what we're calculating eps with. On that basis I can estimate 2.5bn - 3.0bn for FY 2016. Or maybe even higher, because of all the advantages this year, namely. 465m loss from TZ not recurring, reduced finance cost due to lower debt. And possibly less foreign exchange losses but too early to tell. According to MD were already up 500k compared to last year at this time.

So 2.5- 3.0bn for me with a possibility of even higher. Thats at least 25% Growth in pat.




I will join this bus when it has completely been drowned by the bear to 8/-


8.00 would be a dream come true. I might have to sell a kidney to add more shares. Because 18-20 + is guaranteed in the next bull


I'm completely at peace with this share, even if it tanked to zero. I bought the stock at ksh 53 (before the 1:10 split), sold half of it to recoup my initial investment, the dividends have been straight bottom line stuff for me.....Cant say the same about KQ with an average buy price of ksh 43.
VituVingiSana
#667 Posted : Saturday, March 26, 2016 8:01:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,141
Location: Nairobi
After reading the transcript of the Conference Call and going through the Briefing, I do have questions which I hope are answered in the Annual Report. If not, there's always the AGM.

@Kausha - Yes, I am on board for 2.5bn ceteris paribus as the minimum. 3bn is possible if KK sells much more fuel vs 2015. Seems 1Q is going very well for KK.
@AGuy - I am looking to buy more as it dips below 10. I might even sell some of my other stars but all my picks have been chosen for a reason.

KK - Management A, Finances A, Profit growth FY 2016 A
Williamson - Management A, Finances A, Profits FY 2015-16 A but 2016-17 B- [lower tea prices, elections], Profit growth (over 2015-16) D
I&M - Management A, Finances A, Profits FY 2016 A- [Bad debts, legislation, elections], Profit Growth 2016 C
KenyaRe - Management B [GoK influence but I like the CEO], Finances A, Profits FY 2015 A, Profits 2016 A [T-Bills, T-Bonds, etc]
Unga - Management A, Finances B [Not cash rich, debt for Ennsvalley, storage expansion and new wheat mill, maize shortage in 2H], Profits FY 2015-16 B+, Profits 2016-17 A-, Profit Growth A-

I like the 'diversity' in FMCG (fuel & food), Finance [banking & insurance), Agric [hedge against weakening KES].
Cash rich except Unga.
Banks are harder to analyze but I&M is a conservative bank.
KenyaRe is GoK but plods along with underwriting profits bolstered by a safe portfolio of assets.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Aguytrying
#668 Posted : Saturday, March 26, 2016 9:08:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
After reading the transcript of the Conference Call and going through the Briefing, I do have questions which I hope are answered in the Annual Report. If not, there's always the AGM.

@Kausha - Yes, I am on board for 2.5bn ceteris paribus as the minimum. 3bn is possible if KK sells much more fuel vs 2015. Seems 1Q is going very well for KK.
@AGuy - I am looking to buy more as it dips below 10. I might even sell some of my other stars but all my picks have been chosen for a reason.

KK - Management A, Finances A, Profit growth FY 2016 A
Williamson - Management A, Finances A, Profits FY 2015-16 A but 2016-17 B- [lower tea prices, elections], Profit growth (over 2015-16) D
I&M - Management A, Finances A, Profits FY 2016 A- [Bad debts, legislation, elections], Profit Growth 2016 C
KenyaRe - Management B [GoK influence but I like the CEO], Finances A, Profits FY 2015 A, Profits 2016 A [T-Bills, T-Bonds, etc]
Unga - Management A, Finances B [Not cash rich, debt for Ennsvalley, storage expansion and new wheat mill, maize shortage in 2H], Profits FY 2015-16 B+, Profits 2016-17 A-, Profit Growth A-

I like the 'diversity' in FMCG (fuel & food), Finance [banking & insurance), Agric [hedge against weakening KES].
Cash rich except Unga.
Banks are harder to analyze but I&M is a conservative bank.
KenyaRe is GoK but plods along with underwriting profits bolstered by a safe portfolio of assets.


I like the diversity and the reasoning behind it!
I think with the 2015 performance, the minimum buying price for KK also goes up. If there's more time to buy the better. From my little experience, it's wise not to make one counter too heavy % wise. I always resist the urge and try and lift all of them. Down the line it makes sense.

How bad are i&m debts? Their results have really shone in 2015, even surpusing DTB.
When the market recovers kk share price will take many peoples breath away. Ceteris paribus. And they will be asking why is it rallying. We'll just be smiling deciding if to respond.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Spikes
#669 Posted : Sunday, March 27, 2016 8:57:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
After reading the transcript of the Conference Call and going through the Briefing, I do have questions which I hope are answered in the Annual Report. If not, there's always the AGM.

@Kausha - Yes, I am on board for 2.5bn ceteris paribus as the minimum. 3bn is possible if KK sells much more fuel vs 2015. Seems 1Q is going very well for KK.
@AGuy - I am looking to buy more as it dips below 10. I might even sell some of my other stars but all my picks have been chosen for a reason.

KK - Management A, Finances A, Profit growth FY 2016 A
Williamson - Management A, Finances A, Profits FY 2015-16 A but 2016-17 B- [lower tea prices, elections], Profit growth (over 2015-16) D
I&M - Management A, Finances A, Profits FY 2016 A- [Bad debts, legislation, elections], Profit Growth 2016 C
KenyaRe - Management B [GoK influence but I like the CEO], Finances A, Profits FY 2015 A, Profits 2016 A [T-Bills, T-Bonds, etc]
Unga - Management A, Finances B [Not cash rich, debt for Ennsvalley, storage expansion and new wheat mill, maize shortage in 2H], Profits FY 2015-16 B+, Profits 2016-17 A-, Profit Growth A-

I like the 'diversity' in FMCG (fuel & food), Finance [banking & insurance), Agric [hedge against weakening KES].
Cash rich except Unga.
Banks are harder to analyze but I&M is a conservative bank.
KenyaRe is GoK but plods along with underwriting profits bolstered by a safe portfolio of assets.


I like the diversity and the reasoning behind it!
I think with the 2015 performance, the minimum buying price for KK also goes up. If there's more time to buy the better. From my little experience, it's wise not to make one counter too heavy % wise. I always resist the urge and try and lift all of them. Down the line it makes sense.

How bad are i&m debts? Their results have really shone in 2015, even surpusing DTB.
When the market recovers kk share price will take many peoples breath away. Ceteris paribus. And they will be asking why is it rallying. We'll just be smiling deciding if to respond.


I am urging all KK enthusiasts to sell now and re-enter later @8 bob as Mr. bear is in town his tongue wagging as he knows the bloodletting in the street is imminent. I am patient as I know if I miss this opportunity as Mr. bear looms large in the central of the capital it will be very difficult to obtain a low bargain later on.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Realtreaty
#670 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2016 11:14:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,319
Laughing out loudly Oil is black, no need white elephants!!!!!
Use the monies to do something tangible for now.smile

KenolKobil puts off plan to build Sh1.5 bn office block on oversupply

VituVingiSana
#671 Posted : Monday, March 28, 2016 11:22:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,141
Location: Nairobi
Realtreaty wrote:
Laughing out loudly Oil is black, no need white elephants!!!!!
Use the monies to do something tangible for now.smile

KenolKobil puts off plan to build Sh1.5 bn office block on oversupply


Applause Applause Applause Good news. It makes more sense for KK to rent space. I find firms that 'own' space often use it poorly with empty offices, grandiose offices, etc. Renting space means a chq is written annually and can be reviewed. Over time as tech takes over, less space is required. Look at Equity which has moved transactions to servers instead of 'paper' at the branches.

Ohana, pay down that debt!

[or KK can contribute the land in exchange for a share of the new building. No need for KK to put up cash + use the asset + re-design the petrol station into one that serves the market well]
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#672 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 11:46:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,185
Location: nairobi
Interesting volumes at interestingly high price
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
whiteowl
#673 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 1:14:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
mlennyma wrote:
Interesting volumes at interestingly high price


I think this bus has clearly left the stage. Any hope of loading up more is disappearing every passing day.
Spikes
#674 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 1:29:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
whiteowl wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Interesting volumes at interestingly high price


I think this bus has clearly left the stage. Any hope of loading up more is disappearing every passing day.


Wacheza na bear! Ask the veterans. Aliye juu mngojee chini.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Impunity
#675 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 1:37:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,328
Location: Masada
Spikes wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Interesting volumes at interestingly high price


I think this bus has clearly left the stage. Any hope of loading up more is disappearing every passing day.


Wacheza na bear! Ask the veterans. Aliye juu mngojee chini.


Nangoja at sub 7.50.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

mlennyma
#676 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 4:05:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,185
Location: nairobi
Impunity wrote:
Spikes wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Interesting volumes at interestingly high price


I think this bus has clearly left the stage. Any hope of loading up more is disappearing every passing day.


Wacheza na bear! Ask the veterans. Aliye juu mngojee chini.


Nangoja at sub 7.50.

7.50 during a serious civil war.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#677 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 6:27:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
Impunity wrote:
Spikes wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Interesting volumes at interestingly high price


I think this bus has clearly left the stage. Any hope of loading up more is disappearing every passing day.


Wacheza na bear! Ask the veterans. Aliye juu mngojee chini.


Nangoja at sub 7.50.

7.50 during a serious civil war.


Top mover today. 92.7 million. 99% percent foreign buys. Thats a record breaking trade, it's been years since such volumes traded. Looks like there exists hidden demand as their used to be hidden supply at 8.00.

In a few months we'll know if it was distribution
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mlennyma
#678 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 6:36:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,185
Location: nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Impunity wrote:
Spikes wrote:
whiteowl wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Interesting volumes at interestingly high price


I think this bus has clearly left the stage. Any hope of loading up more is disappearing every passing day.


Wacheza na bear! Ask the veterans. Aliye juu mngojee chini.


Nangoja at sub 7.50.

7.50 during a serious civil war.


Top mover today. 92.7 million. 99% percent foreign buys. Thats a record breaking trade, it's been years since such volumes traded. Looks like there exists hidden demand as their used to be hidden supply at 8.00.

In a few months we'll know if it was distribution

the buyers never come open to avoid anxiety, you only see the traded volume and this is kk's behaviour since time immemorial
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#679 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 9:44:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,141
Location: Nairobi
@Kausha @AGuy - When do we feast? I think 2018 is the year of the takeover. 20?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mlennyma
#680 Posted : Tuesday, March 29, 2016 9:50:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,185
Location: nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Kausha @AGuy - When do we feast? I think 2018 is the year of the takeover. 20?

Going by what happened in tz and congo,a deal can be concluded silently until the last stages
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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