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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:Keno
First I want to revise our wave count following last week events. Feel free to criticize. I am still learning.
Then kindly let me bring to our attention something I missed to mention in the last analysis that could be is not obvious. If we go back to the end of wave 1(of c or 5), keno had a RSI(14) bearish divergence as shown below that resulted to corrective wave 2( of c or of 5). I want you to look keenly on the blue vertical line. The 1st line had a low price of 8.5 while RSI(14) was @ 47.79. on the 2nd line,the price low was 8.6(a bit higher that the 8.5) and RSI(14) @ 47.23( a bit lower than 47.79). that was a positive reversal sign that defined end of correction wave 2.The red lines are showing divergence.
closer look rsi
closer look price
Then let us look at what happened last week. The same sign was even present by the time we had the last analysis. If you can recall “in wave 4 correction,this should be in mind. If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. so do we have wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c in place already? could be yes could be no. “ wave 4(of c or of 3) made a triangle correction as evident on the chart
Where are we? wave 5 (of c or 3) is in the making.
Expectation
Our targets on the chart still remain. So far we have passed target 1 and 2. Let see what happens at or around target 3 of 12.2. remember we still have the following possibilities;
(a) wave 4 that will correct after end of 5 of 3 and then the last wave that will complete the first 5 impulse(high probability) or
(b) a wave in a downtrend after end of 5 of c
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
progress so far
Do you see it getting to the 3rd target anyday in March? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,320 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:karasinga wrote:murchr wrote:Boris Boyka wrote:murchr wrote:Thanks @karasinga. I was waiting for this analysis. If KENO doesn't hit 12.5 today, I don't see it hitting 14/- soon
It didn't. So why to you expect fellow Mr Kk trader .
We are trapped  . This new MD is not like Segman who would excite the market with news..We have to wait and see how things go
these targets are still sound
target 1 11.29( so far the high exceeded our target by 0.11
2nd target 12.2
tighten you trailing stops if you are not yet out
Am  hard for it to go back to 9/=  cc @ VVS
Kk is a value trap. Something equal to big bang must happen for that to change. And mr market is saying that loud n clear. This stock is so uneasy above nine, like a horny rub-it. I wait to c what comes out of it.
My policy is primarily Buy and Hold. I prefer (sustainable) profits.
So whereas to you KK is a value trap, to me I currently see a firm with growing profits. At some point, as you point out, there could be a buyout & payout BUT in the meantime it is doing well.
Life is about experiences. I sold my BAT [value trap, anti-smoking regulations, hubris, trading] and have regretted it. Not only did the price rise but the dividend too.
Back to basics for me starting with... Do I trust the management of KK? YES.
Ohana, Ciano.. Whats in a name? 5 letters, similar vowel cosonants. Highly admired for seemingly able to do the undoable.. Coincidence? Maybe not! COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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KPLC
BIG PICTURE
LAST WAVE
where are we?
wave v(of c or 2) is in the making
possible buy TARGETS
target 1 = 10.7
target 2 = 10.4
target 3 = 9.4
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,301 Location: kenya
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karasinga wrote:KPLC
BIG PICTURE
LAST WAVE
where are we?
wave v(of c or 2) is in the making
possible buy TARGETS
target 1 = 10.7
target 2 = 10.4
target 3 = 9.4
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
 thanks karasinga .
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Arm
ARM has been on a downward trend from a high of 98.5 on 14th jan 2014. This decline has possibly been a zigzag (ABC) correction as shown below. The alternative wave count of 5 waves down, present on our chart, should be kept in mind to avoid being clobbered by Mr. Market if our wave count doesn’t favor us.
Our latest preferred count is that the wave IV of a 5-wave series from 48 ended at 34.5. The decline, since then, is believed to be working toward the end of wave v of 5 with the implication that the downtrend will be completed soon either forming:
1. Wave C, The last leg of zigzag or
2. (3) Of 5- wave series in a downward trend.
Expectation:
With the above two probable options, a rally is a must have.
Why is this so?
If the downtrend will complete C of zigzag, then five wave impulse upward will form
If the downtrend will complete (3) of 5- wave series, then wave 4 correction will form.
POTENTIAL REVERSAL TARGETS
With the news that ARM Cement will cede a controlling stake to a strategic investor after it opted to offer new ordinary shares to the new partner and increased the buyout cost by Sh1.4 billion. Instead of 12.6 billion they offer 14 billion
Target 1 = 27.15 (high probability because a major gann level at 26.8 and symmetry at 26.9 are forming a price cluster with this target)
Target 2 = 25.75
Target 3 = 22.8
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Othelo wrote:@karasinga on ADSS, did you fact in the new shares?
No. kindly share. I used data as raw as it were. It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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murchr wrote:karasinga wrote:karasinga wrote:Keno
First I want to revise our wave count following last week events. Feel free to criticize. I am still learning.
Then kindly let me bring to our attention something I missed to mention in the last analysis that could be is not obvious. If we go back to the end of wave 1(of c or 5), keno had a RSI(14) bearish divergence as shown below that resulted to corrective wave 2( of c or of 5). I want you to look keenly on the blue vertical line. The 1st line had a low price of 8.5 while RSI(14) was @ 47.79. on the 2nd line,the price low was 8.6(a bit higher that the 8.5) and RSI(14) @ 47.23( a bit lower than 47.79). that was a positive reversal sign that defined end of correction wave 2.The red lines are showing divergence.
closer look rsi
closer look price
Then let us look at what happened last week. The same sign was even present by the time we had the last analysis. If you can recall “in wave 4 correction,this should be in mind. If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. so do we have wave 4 of 3 or 4 of c in place already? could be yes could be no. “ wave 4(of c or of 3) made a triangle correction as evident on the chart
Where are we? wave 5 (of c or 3) is in the making.
Expectation
Our targets on the chart still remain. So far we have passed target 1 and 2. Let see what happens at or around target 3 of 12.2. remember we still have the following possibilities;
(a) wave 4 that will correct after end of 5 of 3 and then the last wave that will complete the first 5 impulse(high probability) or
(b) a wave in a downtrend after end of 5 of c
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
progress so far
Do you see it getting to the 3rd target anyday in March?
as I said on previous posts, the 3rd target is still sound. However, do your homework.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Spikes wrote:enyands wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:Let us have a look at btak
With the data i have, btak has been on a down trend since sept 23rd 2014 @ a high of 40. The elliot wave count below shows 4 complete waves and wave 5 in the making.
If you look more closely, after wave 4 retracement(which ended @ a high of 21 on 11th august 2015) we had the 1st wave down to a low of 15(making wave 1 of 5) as on 27th august 2015 then retraced to a high of 18 = a 50% fib level(making wave 2 of 5. Btak later dropped further to a low of 14.2 on 15th oct 2015. A retracement followed to a high of 17 = 61.8% fib level. This rules out possibility of this high being wave 4 of 5 and makes us think of an alternative wave count which retraces to such levels. This can only be wave (ii) of 3 and thus the low of 14.2 was wave (i) of 3. This tells us we will have an extended wave 3 of 5. That has been evident as shown below. 
Wave (iii) of 3 followed at a low 10.7 on 22nd jan 2016 then retraced to a high of 12.8( making wave (iv) of 3) as on 5th feb 2016.
Where are we.
Wave (v) of 3 is on the making which will complete the extended wave 3 of 5.
Will we hit have the bottom when complete wave 3 of 5? No
Expectation.
If our wave count are right and we have end of wave 3 of 5 in place, then we will have a rally that will terminate @ either 38.2%(13.5) or 23.6%(12.5) of wave 2 of 5 and 3 of 5. Wave 5 of 5 might be lower than the current price and might be the best buy levels to either;
1st target 10 to 10.5
2nd target 9.6 to 9.4
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...9625&p=22#post717715
I was absolutely correct with my prophecy.
I just saw you thanking Ericson for having helped you not getting shafted. I saw non of prophecy. Put the thread number sir.
Thread #437.
It is amazing that Wazuans have a powerful memory if you can still remember Ericsson advising me.
progress so far
were our buy target hit? yes
someone may be enjoying 33.5% capital gain in the last few days from the small rally predicted earlier.
recommendation
if long liquidate by the close of business tomorrow
if planning to buy, wait
where are we
btak has done its fourth wave in the last wave 5.
expectation
a downward trend consisting of 5 small waves to the following targets
target 1 8.9
target 2 8-7.5(high probability coz a symmetry and major gann level are @8)
target 3 4.2-3.5
let us see what the market will give us
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:enyands wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:Let us have a look at btak
With the data i have, btak has been on a down trend since sept 23rd 2014 @ a high of 40. The elliot wave count below shows 4 complete waves and wave 5 in the making.
If you look more closely, after wave 4 retracement(which ended @ a high of 21 on 11th august 2015) we had the 1st wave down to a low of 15(making wave 1 of 5) as on 27th august 2015 then retraced to a high of 18 = a 50% fib level(making wave 2 of 5. Btak later dropped further to a low of 14.2 on 15th oct 2015. A retracement followed to a high of 17 = 61.8% fib level. This rules out possibility of this high being wave 4 of 5 and makes us think of an alternative wave count which retraces to such levels. This can only be wave (ii) of 3 and thus the low of 14.2 was wave (i) of 3. This tells us we will have an extended wave 3 of 5. That has been evident as shown below.
Wave (iii) of 3 followed at a low 10.7 on 22nd jan 2016 then retraced to a high of 12.8( making wave (iv) of 3) as on 5th feb 2016.
Where are we.
Wave (v) of 3 is on the making which will complete the extended wave 3 of 5.
Will we hit have the bottom when complete wave 3 of 5? No
Expectation.
If our wave count are right and we have end of wave 3 of 5 in place, then we will have a rally that will terminate @ either 38.2%(13.5) or 23.6%(12.5) of wave 2 of 5 and 3 of 5. Wave 5 of 5 might be lower than the current price and might be the best buy levels to either;
1st target 10 to 10.5
2nd target 9.6 to 9.4
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...9625&p=22#post717715
I was absolutely correct with my prophecy.
I just saw you thanking Ericson for having helped you not getting shafted. I saw non of prophecy. Put the thread number sir.
Thread #437.
It is amazing that Wazuans have a powerful memory if you can still remember Ericsson advising me.
progress so far
were our buy target hit? yes
someone may be enjoying 33.5% capital gain in the last few days from the small rally predicted earlier.
recommendation
if long liquidate by the end of close of business tomorrow
if planning to buy, wait
where are we
btak has done its fourth wave in 5 wave.
expectation
a downward trend to the following targets
target 1 8.9
target 2 8-7.5(high probability coz a symmetry and major gann level are @8)
target 3 4.2-3.5
let us see what the market will give us
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
@karasinga if the Brit management announces bonus issue or flat dividend can't you see a rally higher that 13.5 kes? John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/26/2015 Posts: 1,147
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Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:Spikes wrote:enyands wrote:Spikes wrote:karasinga wrote:Let us have a look at btak
With the data i have, btak has been on a down trend since sept 23rd 2014 @ a high of 40. The elliot wave count below shows 4 complete waves and wave 5 in the making.
If you look more closely, after wave 4 retracement(which ended @ a high of 21 on 11th august 2015) we had the 1st wave down to a low of 15(making wave 1 of 5) as on 27th august 2015 then retraced to a high of 18 = a 50% fib level(making wave 2 of 5. Btak later dropped further to a low of 14.2 on 15th oct 2015. A retracement followed to a high of 17 = 61.8% fib level. This rules out possibility of this high being wave 4 of 5 and makes us think of an alternative wave count which retraces to such levels. This can only be wave (ii) of 3 and thus the low of 14.2 was wave (i) of 3. This tells us we will have an extended wave 3 of 5. That has been evident as shown below.
Wave (iii) of 3 followed at a low 10.7 on 22nd jan 2016 then retraced to a high of 12.8( making wave (iv) of 3) as on 5th feb 2016.
Where are we.
Wave (v) of 3 is on the making which will complete the extended wave 3 of 5.
Will we hit have the bottom when complete wave 3 of 5? No
Expectation.
If our wave count are right and we have end of wave 3 of 5 in place, then we will have a rally that will terminate @ either 38.2%(13.5) or 23.6%(12.5) of wave 2 of 5 and 3 of 5. Wave 5 of 5 might be lower than the current price and might be the best buy levels to either;
1st target 10 to 10.5
2nd target 9.6 to 9.4
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...9625&p=22#post717715
I was absolutely correct with my prophecy.
I just saw you thanking Ericson for having helped you not getting shafted. I saw non of prophecy. Put the thread number sir.
Thread #437.
It is amazing that Wazuans have a powerful memory if you can still remember Ericsson advising me.
progress so far
were our buy target hit? yes
someone may be enjoying 33.5% capital gain in the last few days from the small rally predicted earlier.
recommendation
if long liquidate by the close of business tomorrow
if planning to buy, wait
where are we
btak has done its fourth wave in 5 wave.
expectation
a downward trend to the following targets
target 1 8.9
target 2 8-7.5(high probability coz a symmetry and major gann level are @8)
target 3 4.2-3.5
let us see what the market will give us
STATEMENT DISCLAIMER
This analysis is designed to inform you on the counter's direction. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell but rather a guideline to interpret the market. The information presented should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in trading. I shall have no liability for any investment decision based on the use of this analysis
@karasinga if the Brit management announces bonus issue or flat dividend can't you see a rally higher that 13.5 kes?
if the wave count is right, I highly doubt a rally above today's high of 14 is possible even with good news. remember kegn on octomber 13th 2015. its management announced huge profit but still had to respect the wave principal and proceeded downward.
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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