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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Kausha
#621 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 8:52:09 PM
Rank: Member

You have been a member since:: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
There is expectation that the KPC will be settled out of court by July. They are already in discussion. Though this is with lots of hope. The money from TZ already came but it was only 1.68B.
mlennyma
#622 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 9:57:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Kausha wrote:
There is expectation that the KPC will be settled out of court by July. They are already in discussion. Though this is with lots of hope. The money from TZ already came but it was only 1.68B.

source??or its gossip
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Spikes
#623 Posted : Saturday, March 19, 2016 10:24:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
mlennyma wrote:
Kausha wrote:
There is expectation that the KPC will be settled out of court by July. They are already in discussion. Though this is with lots of hope. The money from TZ already came but it was only 1.68B.

source??or its gossip


People are taking advantage of KK mantra to spread skewed rumours and mere gossip .
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
mlennyma
#624 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 7:49:41 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Kausha wrote:
There is expectation that the KPC will be settled out of court by July. They are already in discussion. Though this is with lots of hope. The money from TZ already came but it was only 1.68B.

source??or its gossip


People are taking advantage of KK mantra to spread skewed rumours and mere gossip .

it is however good if they can exploit the out of court settlement way to avoid bad blood between same sector members
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
sparkly
#625 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 9:12:19 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
mlennyma wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Kausha wrote:
There is expectation that the KPC will be settled out of court by July. They are already in discussion. Though this is with lots of hope. The money from TZ already came but it was only 1.68B.

source??or its gossip


People are taking advantage of KK mantra to spread skewed rumours and mere gossip .

it is however good if they can exploit the out of court settlement way to avoid bad blood between same sector members


KK is fairly priced at 12-14.
The fuel market has been favorable to the company. Lower cost per litre increased the margin per litre sold, reduced the cash outlay needed to buy stocks. When international prices start rising this advantage will vaporize.

KK still operates in a regulated market. Apart from protecting margins (discussed above) saving SGA and Finance costs is the only viable means of improving profitability. KK started by retrenching employees. Sold assets to reduce debts. Scope for operating cost reduction is almost done.

From 2016/7 onwards, operating profit growth can only come from increasing volumes while holding Capex steady, by growing a franchise model of stations and convenience stores.

Political risk still high for KK. Mainly held by Kanu men who have not found favour with subsequent regimes. In fact I am surprised that KK has survived this long with loss of favoured position, liberization and controls in the sector, Devani Triton antics.
That KPC (GOK) will pay the disputed amounts to KK with a clean heart is a tad too optimistic. If it happens, you can expect 70% of the cash to end up in Hyenas pockets. Not sure if our Messiah Ohana is open to such deals.

In conclusion all powers in the Cosmos are against a KK outperformance post 2016. This is a share to sell when the bulls return and put the money elsewhere, even T Bills will yield more.
Life is short. Live passionately.
jerry
#626 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 9:29:22 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
sparkly wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Kausha wrote:
There is expectation that the KPC will be settled out of court by July. They are already in discussion. Though this is with lots of hope. The money from TZ already came but it was only 1.68B.

source??or its gossip


People are taking advantage of KK mantra to spread skewed rumours and mere gossip .

it is however good if they can exploit the out of court settlement way to avoid bad blood between same sector members


KK is fairly priced at 12-14.
The fuel market has been favorable to the company. Lower cost per litre increased the margin per litre sold, reduced the cash outlay needed to buy stocks. When international prices start rising this advantage will vaporize.

KK still operates in a regulated market. Apart from protecting margins (discussed above) saving SGA and Finance costs is the only viable means of improving profitability. KK started by retrenching employees. Sold assets to reduce debts. Scope for operating cost reduction is almost done.

From 2016/7 onwards, operating profit growth can only come from increasing volumes while holding Capex steady, by growing a franchise model of stations and convenience stores.

Political risk still high for KK. Mainly held by Kanu men who have not found favour with subsequent regimes. In fact I am surprised that KK has survived this long with loss of favoured position, liberization and controls in the sector, Devani Triton antics.
That KPC (GOK) will pay the disputed amounts to KK with a clean heart is a tad too optimistic. If it happens, you can expect 70% of the cash to end up in Hyenas pockets. Not sure if our Messiah Ohana is open to such deals.

In conclusion all powers in the Cosmos are against a KK outperformance post 2016. This is a share to sell when the bulls return and put the money elsewhere, even T Bills will yield more.

I'm not a financial analyst but if KK has come this far againt all the odds then it quite possible it'll still remain a good share.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
Kausha
#627 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 10:50:06 AM
Rank: Member

You have been a member since:: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
There are very pedestrian views up there. Source of info very reliable. Won't tell you it's DO if that is what you wanted. KK raked are running at double GP margins of last year meaning by end of this month they will be at 100% of 1H15. So if similar or nearer to margins are attained for the 2ND quarter of 2016 we should end up 50%+ earnings growth. Good people how else do you think the debt is being settled that fast?
sparkly
#628 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 12:43:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Kausha wrote:
There are very pedestrian views up there. Source of info very reliable. Won't tell you it's DO if that is what you wanted. KK raked are running at double GP margins of last year meaning by end of this month they will be at 100% of 1H15. So if similar or nearer to margins are attained for the 2ND quarter of 2016 we should end up 50%+ earnings growth. Good people how else do you think the debt is being settled that fast?


@Kausha when I read your comments, I am unable to tell whether you are agreeing with my observations or not.

Am safe to say that we agree on the following-
- GP margin improvement due in part to the reduction of cost of sales compared to the fixed wholesale and retail margins per litre sold.
- Repayment of debt - Not because KK is making too much money BUT because KK needs to reduce finance costs to boost the bottom line.
Life is short. Live passionately.
sparkly
#629 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 1:03:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
jerry wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Kausha wrote:
There is expectation that the KPC will be settled out of court by July. They are already in discussion. Though this is with lots of hope. The money from TZ already came but it was only 1.68B.

source??or its gossip


People are taking advantage of KK mantra to spread skewed rumours and mere gossip .

it is however good if they can exploit the out of court settlement way to avoid bad blood between same sector members


KK is fairly priced at 12-14.
The fuel market has been favorable to the company. Lower cost per litre increased the margin per litre sold, reduced the cash outlay needed to buy stocks. When international prices start rising this advantage will vaporize.

KK still operates in a regulated market. Apart from protecting margins (discussed above) saving SGA and Finance costs is the only viable means of improving profitability. KK started by retrenching employees. Sold assets to reduce debts. Scope for operating cost reduction is almost done.

From 2016/7 onwards, operating profit growth can only come from increasing volumes while holding Capex steady, by growing a franchise model of stations and convenience stores.

Political risk still high for KK. Mainly held by Kanu men who have not found favour with subsequent regimes. In fact I am surprised that KK has survived this long with loss of favoured position, liberization and controls in the sector, Devani Triton antics.
That KPC (GOK) will pay the disputed amounts to KK with a clean heart is a tad too optimistic. If it happens, you can expect 70% of the cash to end up in Hyenas pockets. Not sure if our Messiah Ohana is open to such deals.

In conclusion all powers in the Cosmos are against a KK outperformance post 2016. This is a share to sell when the bulls return and put the money elsewhere, even T Bills will yield more.

I'm not a financial analyst but if KK has come this far againt all the odds then it quite possible it'll still remain a good share.


You need to be an analyst, in your own way otherwise you are coming here to tell us bees and birds stories Laughing out loudly Back to business KK has been flattish for the last 20 years except during the mad bull run of 2003-2006 when it hit the equivalent of 40/- post split. As a a commodity and energy stock it was good for dividend income which changed with introduction if price controls in the sector
Life is short. Live passionately.
Aguytrying
#630 Posted : Sunday, March 20, 2016 2:08:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
sparkly wrote:
jerry wrote:
sparkly wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Spikes wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Kausha wrote:
There is expectation that the KPC will be settled out of court by July. They are already in discussion. Though this is with lots of hope. The money from TZ already came but it was only 1.68B.

source??or its gossip


People are taking advantage of KK mantra to spread skewed rumours and mere gossip .

it is however good if they can exploit the out of court settlement way to avoid bad blood between same sector members


KK is fairly priced at 12-14.
The fuel market has been favorable to the company. Lower cost per litre increased the margin per litre sold, reduced the cash outlay needed to buy stocks. When international prices start rising this advantage will vaporize.

KK still operates in a regulated market. Apart from protecting margins (discussed above) saving SGA and Finance costs is the only viable means of improving profitability. KK started by retrenching employees. Sold assets to reduce debts. Scope for operating cost reduction is almost done.

From 2016/7 onwards, operating profit growth can only come from increasing volumes while holding Capex steady, by growing a franchise model of stations and convenience stores.

Political risk still high for KK. Mainly held by Kanu men who have not found favour with subsequent regimes. In fact I am surprised that KK has survived this long with loss of favoured position, liberization and controls in the sector, Devani Triton antics.
That KPC (GOK) will pay the disputed amounts to KK with a clean heart is a tad too optimistic. If it happens, you can expect 70% of the cash to end up in Hyenas pockets. Not sure if our Messiah Ohana is open to such deals.

In conclusion all powers in the Cosmos are against a KK outperformance post 2016. This is a share to sell when the bulls return and put the money elsewhere, even T Bills will yield more.

I'm not a financial analyst but if KK has come this far againt all the odds then it quite possible it'll still remain a good share.


You need to be an analyst, in your own way otherwise you are coming here to tell us bees and birds stories Laughing out loudly Back to business KK has been flattish for the last 20 years except during the mad bull run of 2003-2006 when it hit the equivalent of 40/- post split. As a a commodity and energy stock it was good for dividend income which changed with introduction if price controls in the sector


@sparkly. Those are very negative views towards a company that has overcome all odds in the last 4 years to generate the current profit. Even if fuel prices go up, thanks to no debt the finance costs will be manageable. The margins will shrink no doubt, but the company will still be making profits. From now on the goal is to improve retail station sales and non fuel. As u have pointed out. As those sales increase so do revenues. If oil prices went up thanks to price controls there will still be a profit margin though I agree less than now.

On gok issue. The management clearly indicated they have reduced clashes with gok in courts, it's one of the reasons for the success in those 4 years.

It's not gloomy as you are painting it. And the issue u raise are not yet happening and may never happen or may take long to happen.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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