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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Fantastic financial cost management  EPS = 1.37 With a PE of 10 the price should settle at 14. If KK grows by 25% in 2016 price target will be around 18 with 20 a stretch further. @aguy @vvs @mlennyma  Still I continue to ignore NSE as long as I'm not comfy with the worldwide financial outlook. Talk about keeping the faith, since those dark days. I feel if the company can consolidate this profit level it can the grow and reach for new higher level for the coming years. Your prediction is abit too rosy for a bear market, esp from you. We're used to the hammer falling and kicking the share price back down. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:What I wanted to read. I hope this is fleshed out further in the Annual Report and at the AGM.
Future Outlook
The year 2015 was characterized by dropping oil prices. The management takes the view that in 2016 oil prices will remain relatively low, but volatile and subdued, a factor that augurs well for strong results in 2016 for the Group.
The Group is optimistic that the growth in earnings and profitability will be sustained in 2016 and going into the future. This will be driven by focused expansion of the retail network by adding new service stations in the countries where we operate in. Furthermore, in partnership with various brands, we are selectively rebuilding existing and strategic service stations to enhance sales volume and revenue from Non-fuel income as has happened this year where we have completely rebuilt Kobil South-C and Kobil South-B in Kenya.
The Group has developed an effective strategy of constantly reviewing and restructuring debt and indeed repayment of the same which has enabled the Group to successfully reduce its debt burden. With the traction we gained and supported by low oil prices, we are confident that the Group will be debt free within 2016.
Remember when I told u 20.00. Is coming, just 2 more years of double digit growth and a vibrant market and we'll be there. Was it not for the sound financial management we would be 2 years behind the debt payment curve than we are now. OHANA my hero The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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Spikes wrote:Kausha wrote:Exiting at this point could turn out to be costly post the 3pm conference call that has foreign fund managers involved. I am waiting @8bob on a dramatic downward movement. This stock is overpriced across all profitable market segments! The anti-@Obiero  ... It's all good. I prefer 8/- too coz I would sell other shares/assets & buy KK ceteris paribus. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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Joshua Oigara is the new chairman of ERC. Is that a plus/minus for OMCs? http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/10d3wjqz/-/index.htmlGreedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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[quote=VituVingiSana]Joshua Oigara is the new chairman of ERC. Is that a plus/minus for OMCs? http://www.nation.co.ke/...-/10d3wjqz/-/index.html[/quote] I wonder if the KCB plate is not already full enough for him. Or is he just another employee chasing allowances in parastatals... Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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[quote=VituVingiSana]Joshua Oigara is the new chairman of ERC. Is that a plus/minus for OMCs? http://www.nation.co.ke/...-/10d3wjqz/-/index.html[/quote] he bank's for kenol kobil "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Kk is the best performing stock in 2016! When was the last time we could say that. Don't worry @Spikes it's going back to 8 any time The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:Kk is the best performing stock in 2016! When was the last time we could say that. Don't worry @Spikes it's going back to 8 any time a good lesson has been learned on kk stock, incase it dips to 8bob everyone will take it more serious than before "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Kk is the best performing stock in 2016! When was the last time we could say that. Don't worry @Spikes it's going back to 8 any time a good lesson has been learned on kk stock, incase it dips to 8bob everyone will take it more serious than before At the same time we're waiting for Safaricom at 10.00, 5.00 and 3.00. KK at 8 again would be like Christmas come early, I'm not sure it will happen The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Kk is the best performing stock in 2016! When was the last time we could say that. Don't worry @Spikes it's going back to 8 any time a good lesson has been learned on kk stock, incase it dips to 8bob everyone will take it more serious than before At the same time we're waiting for Safaricom at 10.00, 5.00 and 3.00. KK at 8 again would be like Christmas come early, I'm not sure it will happen Under normal price swing conditions Safcom can print 10 on a speed of lightening. It can't stay there . But if grave news hits the telco you will see it thunderously break like chapati to 5 and then dip further to 3. As for KK in a couple of weeks 8bob there you go! John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:
Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Aguytrying wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:@AGuy @Kausha ... A bit early in the year but is 3bn feasible for 2016? Most definitely @VVS. I don't expect anything less!!! It depends alot on if the capital gains from the TZ, Congo sales were booked through profit and loss, and how much. I can't believe this is kk doing 2.5bn pat. I can't. Unbelievable performance! H1 will show the way. Long story short, I feel well consolidate around 2.5 bn in 2016 as well After combing through the statements again. One thing made me smile about 2015 and 2016. 21 retail stations were added in 2015. There is rebuilding and renovation of some existing retail stations with the aim to increase fuel sales and non fuel sales. This what we've been saying since 2012, when we had those aggressive K card deals and KK was the place to fuel and was the market leader in fuel sales. This re-focus on retail is what will drive our sales and profits going forward. Its what total and shell have that we lack at the moment. Im excited by these prospects going forward. With that 2016 i think we can hit 2.5bn PAT and the hailed 3.0bn in 2017. Im ready to be pleasantly surprised though The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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ecstacy wrote:@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:
Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017? My take...there are so many pending issues which can make it hit 18 before H1 2016,eg..refunds from govt to oil marketers,kenya pipeline case,partnership, good income from the 10year castrol products marketing in east and central africa,and most important the optimism by those who own the shares as of now,a share gains because of its scarcity when on demand "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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ecstacy wrote:@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:
Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017? April 2018 ceteris paribus i.e. similar conditions & no PEV 2017. [My 18/- also includes dividends of 0.25 (Final FY 2015 pd in 2016) + 0.50 (pd for FY 2016 in 2017) and 0.15 (interim FY 2017). If the NSE offered single stock call options, I would pick up more than a few. The analyst briefing report was nothing if not positive. - Focus on PROFITABLE sales not market share. - K-Card agreement with DTB is more efficient. - Young country managers. - Hiring expansion to push non-fuel products. - Renovation of stations. - Acquisition/takeover of stations. - All subsidiaries are profitable in 2016 to-date - Debt down to 2.3bn and all in USD. And dropping. - Real estate is not the focus but KK will develop other income sources. - LPG refilling/storage facility in Kisumu. - 200,000 LPG cylinders coming in 2016. - Expansion into new countries is on the cards but not the primary focus. - Burundi remains profitable despite the political problems. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:ecstacy wrote:@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:
Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017? My take...there are so many pending issues which can make it hit 18 before H1 2016,eg..refunds from govt to oil marketers,kenya pipeline case,partnership, good income from the 10year castrol products marketing in east and central africa,and most important the optimism by those who own the shares as of now,a share gains because of its scarcity when on demand Elder. Has Realtreaty infected you with hopium. 18 in 2016! I think towards end of 2017 it can hit 18-20. Let's judge with H1 2016 performance The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:ecstacy wrote:@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:
Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017? April 2018 ceteris paribus i.e. similar conditions & no PEV 2017. [My 18/- also includes dividends of 0.25 (Final FY 2015 pd in 2016) + 0.50 (pd for FY 2016 in 2017) and 0.15 (interim FY 2017). If the NSE offered single stock call options, I would pick up more than a few. The analyst briefing report was nothing if not positive. - Focus on PROFITABLE sales not market share. - K-Card agreement with DTB is more efficient. - Young country managers. - Hiring expansion to push non-fuel products. - Renovation of stations. - Acquisition/takeover of stations. - All subsidiaries are profitable in 2016 to-date - Debt down to 2.3bn and all in USD. And dropping. - Real estate is not the focus but KK will develop other income sources. - LPG refilling/storage facility in Kisumu. - 200,000 LPG cylinders coming in 2016. - Expansion into new countries is on the cards but not the primary focus. - Burundi remains profitable despite the political problems. The remaining 2.3bn debt. Is that including the 1.6bn TZ,Congo proceeds? Where can I get that investor briefing. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:ecstacy wrote:@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:
Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017? April 2018 ceteris paribus i.e. similar conditions & no PEV 2017. [My 18/- also includes dividends of 0.25 (Final FY 2015 pd in 2016) + 0.50 (pd for FY 2016 in 2017) and 0.15 (interim FY 2017). If the NSE offered single stock call options, I would pick up more than a few. The analyst briefing report was nothing if not positive. - Focus on PROFITABLE sales not market share. - K-Card agreement with DTB is more efficient. - Young country managers. - Hiring expansion to push non-fuel products. - Renovation of stations. - Acquisition/takeover of stations. - All subsidiaries are profitable in 2016 to-date - Debt down to 2.3bn and all in USD. And dropping. - Real estate is not the focus but KK will develop other income sources. - LPG refilling/storage facility in Kisumu. - 200,000 LPG cylinders coming in 2016. - Expansion into new countries is on the cards but not the primary focus. - Burundi remains profitable despite the political problems. The remaining 2.3bn debt. Is that including the 1.6bn TZ,Congo proceeds? Where can I get that investor briefing. the kenol kobil which made a profit of 6billion in 2009 and 7.7billion in 2010 before the mess is the same company today ,if today you hear the case with kpc has been concluded and kk awarded 3 billion hell will break loose,but lets not rely on this,we are now profitable "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,141 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:ecstacy wrote:@Kausha, @VVS, @hisah, @Aguy, @mlennyma:
Would you bet your house on KK hitting Ksh 18/= by March 2017? April 2018 ceteris paribus i.e. similar conditions & no PEV 2017. [My 18/- also includes dividends of 0.25 (Final FY 2015 pd in 2016) + 0.50 (pd for FY 2016 in 2017) and 0.15 (interim FY 2017). If the NSE offered single stock call options, I would pick up more than a few. The analyst briefing report was nothing if not positive. - Focus on PROFITABLE sales not market share. - K-Card agreement with DTB is more efficient. - Young country managers. - Hiring expansion to push non-fuel products. - Renovation of stations. - Acquisition/takeover of stations. - All subsidiaries are profitable in 2016 to-date - Debt down to 2.3bn and all in USD. And dropping. - Real estate is not the focus but KK will develop other income sources. - LPG refilling/storage facility in Kisumu. - 200,000 LPG cylinders coming in 2016. - Expansion into new countries is on the cards but not the primary focus. - Burundi remains profitable despite the political problems. The remaining 2.3bn debt. Is that including the 1.6bn TZ,Congo proceeds? Where can I get that investor briefing. The 2.3bn [check @Kausha post] is after the 1.6bn from TZ. I am not sure if it can be paid off by May as DO had said now that Brent prices are back to $41. I think the story now is 'within 2016' vs 3 months from Feb. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 9/20/2010 Posts: 79
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The future is bright for kk and its esteemed shareholders.84% PAT impressive.Puma energy must be full of regret.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,318
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This is the best time the Govt(KPRL and KPC) to repay KK as oil prices are low and govt do not need hedging. Pay now and escape future headaches.
1. Cash Payment
2. Free tendering
3. Free products/servicesto kk to cover costs and penalties
4. Tax rebates or concessions
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