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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
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VituVingiSana
#581 Posted : Thursday, March 17, 2016 8:26:03 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,140
Location: Nairobi
githundi wrote:
Depends on where you are looking it from. .
There has been progress. .but considering the sale of some regional businesses contributing to P & L's other income and the low prices of oil. ..The results are under whelming.
A decrease on short term borrowing is mainly due to lower prices of oil implying less financing costs. I expected more profit as a result of reduced borrowing costs.

d'oh! d'oh! d'oh! No matter what, one can't please everyone.
Doesn't matter. @Aguy @kausha - I think our mboy Ohana is going to take KK places. At the current run-rate it could be 0.75 for 1H.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#582 Posted : Thursday, March 17, 2016 8:30:02 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,140
Location: Nairobi
What I wanted to read. I hope this is fleshed out further in the Annual Report and at the AGM.

Future Outlook

The year 2015 was characterized by dropping oil prices. The management takes the view that in 2016 oil prices will remain relatively low, but volatile and subdued, a factor that augurs well for strong results in 2016 for the Group.
The Group is optimistic that the growth in earnings and profitability will be sustained in 2016 and going into the future. This will be driven by focused expansion of the retail network by adding new service stations in the countries where we operate in. Furthermore, in partnership with various brands, we are selectively rebuilding existing and strategic service stations to enhance sales volume and revenue from Non-fuel income as has happened this year where we have completely rebuilt Kobil South-C and Kobil South-B in Kenya.
The Group has developed an effective strategy of constantly reviewing and restructuring debt and indeed repayment of the same which has enabled the Group to successfully reduce its debt burden. With the traction we gained and supported by low oil prices, we are confident that the Group will be debt free within 2016.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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murchr
#583 Posted : Thursday, March 17, 2016 8:35:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
murchr wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
murchr wrote:
At 13.50/- am a seller...the technical analysis shows the highest KK can hit at this time is 14 or there about.

Can the sale of Tanzanian and Congo business trigger a profit warning for 2016 incase its captured as income?


We'll know that after seeing how much they sold in 2015 then gauge.



Net sales went down

Cash generated from Operations also went down Sad

Sigh. Kuweni Serious.

When PRICES go down the SALES will also reduce [unless the VOLUMES rise by the same margin] but lower sales is not an indicator of 'poor business' as volumes are king.

Volumes +13% but as we have seen the price reduction [net of taxes] has been much larger.

Net cash generated from operating activities is down 5%. This could be partly attributed to sale of TZ & DRC [as KK would have reduced the level of business in TZ to reduce exposure as well as not having a full 12 months of sales].



In the thread "why are we still paying 110/- at the pump" we all know that reduced prices did not take effect in Kenya until waaaayyy later...What happens now that the prices are going up?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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Realtreaty
#584 Posted : Thursday, March 17, 2016 8:36:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,318
githundi wrote:
Depends on where you are looking it from. .
There has been progress. .but considering the sale of some regional businesses contributing to P & L's other income and the low prices of oil. ..The results are under whelming.
A decrease on short term borrowing is mainly due to lower prices of oil implying less financing costs. I expected more profit as a result of reduced borrowing costs.

Sad Paid Caesar what is his and we gonna have a free girl from now.
You cannot have business with a very high debt (Loan). We have cleared much of it. We have prunned the hedges.
I wished Ohana talked about Partnership.
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VituVingiSana
#585 Posted : Thursday, March 17, 2016 8:40:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,140
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
murchr wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
murchr wrote:
At 13.50/- am a seller...the technical analysis shows the highest KK can hit at this time is 14 or there about.

Can the sale of Tanzanian and Congo business trigger a profit warning for 2016 incase its captured as income?


We'll know that after seeing how much they sold in 2015 then gauge.



Net sales went down

Cash generated from Operations also went down Sad

Sigh. Kuweni Serious.

When PRICES go down the SALES will also reduce [unless the VOLUMES rise by the same margin] but lower sales is not an indicator of 'poor business' as volumes are king.

Volumes +13% but as we have seen the price reduction [net of taxes] has been much larger.

Net cash generated from operating activities is down 5%. This could be partly attributed to sale of TZ & DRC [as KK would have reduced the level of business in TZ to reduce exposure as well as not having a full 12 months of sales].



In the thread "why are we still paying 110/- at the pump" we all know that reduced prices did not take effect in Kenya until waaaayyy later...What happens now that the prices are going up?

Answer was given but to make it even easier, I have used Blue "In the year 2015, the sales volume grew by 13% as compared to 2014. The sales revenue dropped by only 4% mainly due to a drop in international oil prices where the reference Murban Crude Oil dropped by 39% in 2015."
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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murchr
#586 Posted : Thursday, March 17, 2016 8:44:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
murchr wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
murchr wrote:
At 13.50/- am a seller...the technical analysis shows the highest KK can hit at this time is 14 or there about.

Can the sale of Tanzanian and Congo business trigger a profit warning for 2016 incase its captured as income?


We'll know that after seeing how much they sold in 2015 then gauge.



Net sales went down

Cash generated from Operations also went down Sad

Sigh. Kuweni Serious.

When PRICES go down the SALES will also reduce [unless the VOLUMES rise by the same margin] but lower sales is not an indicator of 'poor business' as volumes are king.

Volumes +13% but as we have seen the price reduction [net of taxes] has been much larger.

Net cash generated from operating activities is down 5%. This could be partly attributed to sale of TZ & DRC [as KK would have reduced the level of business in TZ to reduce exposure as well as not having a full 12 months of sales].



In the thread "why are we still paying 110/- at the pump" we all know that reduced prices did not take effect in Kenya until waaaayyy later...What happens now that the prices are going up?

Answer was given but to make it even easier, I have used Blue "In the year 2015, the sales volume grew by 13% as compared to 2014. The sales revenue dropped by only 4% mainly due to a drop in international oil prices where the reference Murban Crude Oil dropped by 39% in 2015."


And what am telling you is that in 2015 the international oil prices went down significantly but that advantage was not passed to the consumer (price control) until waaayyyy later...this should have been evident in the books.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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VituVingiSana
#587 Posted : Thursday, March 17, 2016 9:28:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,140
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
murchr wrote:
murchr wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
murchr wrote:
At 13.50/- am a seller...the technical analysis shows the highest KK can hit at this time is 14 or there about.

Can the sale of Tanzanian and Congo business trigger a profit warning for 2016 incase its captured as income?


We'll know that after seeing how much they sold in 2015 then gauge.



Net sales went down

Cash generated from Operations also went down Sad

Sigh. Kuweni Serious.

When PRICES go down the SALES will also reduce [unless the VOLUMES rise by the same margin] but lower sales is not an indicator of 'poor business' as volumes are king.

Volumes +13% but as we have seen the price reduction [net of taxes] has been much larger.

Net cash generated from operating activities is down 5%. This could be partly attributed to sale of TZ & DRC [as KK would have reduced the level of business in TZ to reduce exposure as well as not having a full 12 months of sales].



In the thread "why are we still paying 110/- at the pump" we all know that reduced prices did not take effect in Kenya until waaaayyy later...What happens now that the prices are going up?

Answer was given but to make it even easier, I have used Blue "In the year 2015, the sales volume grew by 13% as compared to 2014. The sales revenue dropped by only 4% mainly due to a drop in international oil prices where the reference Murban Crude Oil dropped by 39% in 2015."


And what am telling you is that in 2015 the international oil prices went down significantly but that advantage was not passed to the consumer (price control) until waaayyyy later...this should have been evident in the books.

Yes, (almost) 2x the PAT vs 2014. And 2H PAT was almost 2x 1H.
As for reduced debt... yes, as I have said many times before, the low(er) oil prices have helped reduce debt. Higher oil prices is not beneficial to KK as it increases debt and interest costs.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#588 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 12:04:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,140
Location: Nairobi
@AGuy @Kausha ... A bit early in the year but is 3bn feasible for 2016?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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MaichBlack
#589 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 9:13:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,478
VituVingiSana wrote:
@AGuy @Kausha ... A bit early in the year but is 3bn feasible for 2016?

Most definitely @VVS. I don't expect anything less!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Aguytrying
#590 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 11:56:56 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
MaichBlack wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@AGuy @Kausha ... A bit early in the year but is 3bn feasible for 2016?

Most definitely @VVS. I don't expect anything less!!!


It depends alot on if the capital gains from the TZ, Congo sales were booked through profit and loss, and how much.

I can't believe this is kk doing 2.5bn pat. I can't. Unbelievable performance! H1 will show the way. Long story short, I feel well consolidate around 2.5 bn in 2016 as well
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#591 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 12:37:49 PM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,185
Location: nairobi
The stability seen today shows not many speculators are left may be wapande tena ikishuka
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Pesa Nane
#592 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 12:40:30 PM
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Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
enyands wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:

Pesa Nane wrote:

#116 Posted : Tuesday, November 24, 2015 2:10:53 PM

Batch 1 @ Ksh. 7.90: Check!


60% lighter at Ksh. 9.80
smile


You made some money and I'm waiting for it at 10 d'oh! this ain't fair. Anyway congrats 8c

Now 90% out at Ksh. 11 BUT remain sold to the kk story. Check you sooner, bear allowing smile
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Kausha
#593 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 1:55:50 PM
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@VVS I expect another 80%+ growth in PAT this year if not more. Debt repayment down to 2.3B as at yesterday.
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Kausha
#594 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 1:57:19 PM
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Posts: 808
Exiting at this point could turn out to be costly post the 3pm conference call that has foreign fund managers involved.
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Spikes
#595 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 2:19:05 PM
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Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Kausha wrote:
Exiting at this point could turn out to be costly post the 3pm conference call that has foreign fund managers involved.


I am waiting @8bob on a dramatic downward movement.

This stock is overpriced across all profitable market segments!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Magnate
#596 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 2:34:06 PM
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Joined: 11/1/2013
Posts: 257
mlennyma wrote:
This guy's must be thanking themselves for clearing all dollar denominated loans before the storm, the wisest move in recent times


I have thanked my self too for investing in kk,sold a small portion @11 on profit taking to enjoy this coming holiday season.looking forward to a better share price of >14bob and sustainable profitability in 2016.Good results kk Applause Applause Applause

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/rp1yen/-/index.html

http://www.rich.co.ke/me...ed%2031%20Dec%202015.pdf
No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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hisah
#597 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 3:21:51 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Fantastic financial cost management Applause

EPS = 1.37

With a PE of 10 the price should settle at 14.

If KK grows by 25% in 2016 price target will be around 18 with 20 a stretch further.

@aguy @vvs @mlennyma smile

Still I continue to ignore NSE as long as I'm not comfy with the worldwide financial outlook.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Aguytrying
#598 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 4:02:07 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
Fantastic financial cost management Applause

EPS = 1.37

With a PE of 10 the price should settle at 14.

If KK grows by 25% in 2016 price target will be around 18 with 20 a stretch further.

@aguy @vvs @mlennyma smile

Still I continue to ignore NSE as long as I'm not comfy with the worldwide financial outlook.


Let us know when worldwide events look up. Meanwhile enjoying the rebound valuation
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#599 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 4:06:39 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Realtreaty
#600 Posted : Friday, March 18, 2016 6:37:52 PM
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Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,318
Magnate wrote:
[quote=mlennyma]This guy's must be thanking themselves for clearing all dollar denominated loans before the storm, the wisest move in recent times


I have thanked my self too for investing in kk,sold a small portion @11 on profit taking to enjoy this coming holiday season.looking forward to a better share price of >14bob and sustainable profitability in 2016.Good results kk Applause Applause Applause

http://www.businessdaily...4/-/rp1yen/-/index.html

http://www.rich.co.ke/me...d%2031%20Dec%202015.pdf[/quote]
smile Laughing out loudly
Seems umesota sana, when (at what) price will you be coming back. I do not think it will go below 10 soon. I suspect something Ohana did not say and this is to do with hving a partner. Dating will continue.
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