FROM SIB.
We update our valuation on Kenya’s listed oil marketers, KenolKobil Limited (KenolKobil) and Total Kenya Limited (Total). We retain a BUY recommendation for both KenolKobil (fair value KES 13.53; 24.1% upside) and Total (fair value KES 41.02; 135.7% upside). Ahead of results, 2015 should have been yet another robust year with KenolKobil 2015 EPS coming in at KES 1.40, up 89.1%y/y and Total at a reported EPS of KES 1.85, down 18.1%y/y. The weakness in Total is likely driven by price/inventory management challenges. Throughput in Total’s stations should have grown on the back of a remodeling and beautification of outlets as well as higher demand (+14.6y/y).
With average oil price (Murban crude) having fallen 9.7%y/y in 2014; 47.2%y/y down in 2015, downstream companies have been unchained from the requirements of very high working capital, with the sector now enjoying generally better gross margins. We expect global oil prices to remain below USD 50 per barrel for a considerable period as demand picks up on excess supply. This scenario is likely to anchor short to medium term profitability for downstream operations despite a 16% VAT increase due in August 2016.
We think Total had challenges in profitability management, as evidenced by 1H15 numbers. We have upgraded KenolKobil on sustained management comments for what we consider a surprisingly quick debt pay down (KES 8.5bn in June 2015 to KES 2.8bn in Feb 2016) - even when we consider disposal of the Tanzania subsidiary (& Democratic Republic of Congo storage facility) at an estimated price of KES 1.6bn. In 2016, we feel remarkably comfortable about margin sustenance and a likely uptick in volumes (despite some domestic tax increases). Volume demand growth will also be boosted by GDP rise with regulatory stability sustaining overall industry attractiveness, especially in Kenya and most regional subsidiaries.
FROM SIB.
KK target 13.53
TOTAL target 41.02
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