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Bear market bottom
Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2015 Posts: 233
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Hi wise people. How do I determine when/if our bear market will continue dragging on slowly/the bottom will fall out or if it bottoms out "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/28/2015 Posts: 1,247
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Financials have not stoke the fire to bring forth enough heat for bulls to show up. Its still cold. Watching safcom fight the bear single handedly. I wonder who will win.  all others have given up to fate and anything goes past safcom.  ,Behold, a sower went forth to sow;....
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 903 Location: sky
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muandiwambeu wrote:Financials have not stoke the fire to bring forth enough heat for bulls to show up. Its still cold. Watching safcom fight the bear single handedly. I wonder who will win. all others have given up to fate and anything goes past safcom. its true the market has failed to get excited by good results, the top banks have set pace for the market,watch out the bear is planning a serious assault!!! There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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littledove wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Financials have not stoke the fire to bring forth enough heat for bulls to show up. Its still cold. Watching safcom fight the bear single handedly. I wonder who will win. all others have given up to fate and anything goes past safcom. its true the market has failed to get excited by good results, the top banks have set pace for the market,watch out the bear is planning a serious assault!!! The bear is still on! Check nic, kcb and even equity slowly drifting back to comfort zone before results! Saf, BAT,EABL, Jubilee, Bamburi. Left to fight the bear The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Despite low fuel prices, falling inflation, falling tbill rates,good rain to hydro power/animal feeds/good harvest in some areas,another rain onset,good bank results than expected ,"the bear continues to seat comfortably "this to me means the main reasons for this bear are outside kenya and not within our control "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 7/1/2015 Posts: 67
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littledove wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Financials have not stoke the fire to bring forth enough heat for bulls to show up. Its still cold. Watching safcom fight the bear single handedly. I wonder who will win. all others have given up to fate and anything goes past safcom. its true the market has failed to get excited by good results, the top banks have set pace for the market,watch out the bear is planning a serious assault!!! Am also thinking that the bear is having lunch in town before serious Massacre begins. “It’s no good, it’s no good!” says the buyer—
then goes off and boasts about the purchase-Proverbs 20:14
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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As long as globally the central banks continue with the current negative interest rates madness, the markets will keep on falling down! Only one event is pending that will make stocks head to all time highs and not based on any fundamentals since the global economy is in a slump. That event is the expected fallout in govt bond market. That capital shift will pile into equities as govt bonds get dumped across board. If you hoard cash which is expected you'll be enemy of the state! Thus the best option is to buy equities since confidence in the financial system will vapourize! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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Sam_Kibs wrote:littledove wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Financials have not stoke the fire to bring forth enough heat for bulls to show up. Its still cold. Watching safcom fight the bear single handedly. I wonder who will win. all others have given up to fate and anything goes past safcom. its true the market has failed to get excited by good results, the top banks have set pace for the market,watch out the bear is planning a serious assault!!! Am also thinking that the bear is having lunch in town before serious Massacre begins. What astonishes me is that the bear is not afraid of impressive results. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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littledove wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Financials have not stoke the fire to bring forth enough heat for bulls to show up. Its still cold. Watching safcom fight the bear single handedly. I wonder who will win. all others have given up to fate and anything goes past safcom. its true the market has failed to get excited by good results, the top banks have set pace for the market,watch out the bear is planning a serious assault!!! i think that interest capping cloud is still in play,those guys are still pushing for it hard. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Spikes wrote:Sam_Kibs wrote:littledove wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Financials have not stoke the fire to bring forth enough heat for bulls to show up. Its still cold. Watching safcom fight the bear single handedly. I wonder who will win. all others have given up to fate and anything goes past safcom. its true the market has failed to get excited by good results, the top banks have set pace for the market,watch out the bear is planning a serious assault!!! Am also thinking that the bear is having lunch in town before serious Massacre begins. What astonishes me is that the bear is not afraid of impressive results. It's all about psychology @spikes. Bull markets pump maniac psychology while bear markets extend pessimistic psychology. The market doesn't work on just two participants, it needs the crowd to function. If the crowd's psychology is negative you get a sellers haven and vice versa.
Thus the simple principle:
"In bull markets good news is celebrate, bad news is bought. In bear markets good news is sold, bad news is sold."
But if you are a smart investor the sold good news in a bear is your holy grail value playground. 
The opposite applies in a maniac bull market. You keep on selling into the bull as you expect to buy the expected bear.
On a normal timeframe the golden handcuff list (centum, equity and britam) would be in my radar of accumulation. But the global market headwinds are holding me back.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mlennyma wrote:Despite low fuel prices, falling inflation, falling tbill rates,good rain to hydro power/animal feeds/good harvest in some areas,another rain onset,good bank results than expected ,"the bear continues to seat comfortably "this to me means the main reasons for this bear are outside kenya and not within our control Hardly,the current bear run has mostly been the result of bad local macro conditions. When the international factors take hold, NSE will be feeding on scraps. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:Sam_Kibs wrote:littledove wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Financials have not stoke the fire to bring forth enough heat for bulls to show up. Its still cold. Watching safcom fight the bear single handedly. I wonder who will win. all others have given up to fate and anything goes past safcom. its true the market has failed to get excited by good results, the top banks have set pace for the market,watch out the bear is planning a serious assault!!! Am also thinking that the bear is having lunch in town before serious Massacre begins. What astonishes me is that the bear is not afraid of impressive results. It's all about psychology @spikes. Bull markets pump maniac psychology while bear markets extend pessimistic psychology. The market doesn't work on just two participants, it needs the crowd to function. If the crowd's psychology is negative you get a sellers haven and vice versa.
Thus the simple principle:
"In bull markets good news is celebrate, bad news is bought. In bear markets good news is sold, bad news is sold."
But if you are a smart investor the sold good news in a bear is your holy grail value playground.
The opposite applies in a maniac bull market. You keep on selling into the bull as you expect to buy the expected bear.
On a normal timeframe the golden handcuff list (centum, equity and britam) would be in my radar of accumulation. But the global market headwinds are holding me back. Once the global market hiccups vanish I'll also accumulate heavily on stocks build on strong metrics but currently undervalued . John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Quite some green start this monday but still early to conclude any status quo change "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/9/2015 Posts: 233
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@ Hisah, is'nt it too early to start buying growth stocks? Is this bear also in Dar, Kigali or Kampala so youd say as @lochaz-index says we are affected by factors outside the market! Do you think the government is again broke? We have workers not paid by govt for 3 months. Could there be a cover up especially with media gagging and government exposing its own guys' scandals then rushing to save the same individuals. Waiguru-Keter et al. Are we being directed to corruption and past scandal stories to diffuse heat from economy woes. "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:Sam_Kibs wrote:littledove wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Financials have not stoke the fire to bring forth enough heat for bulls to show up. Its still cold. Watching safcom fight the bear single handedly. I wonder who will win. all others have given up to fate and anything goes past safcom. its true the market has failed to get excited by good results, the top banks have set pace for the market,watch out the bear is planning a serious assault!!! Am also thinking that the bear is having lunch in town before serious Massacre begins. What astonishes me is that the bear is not afraid of impressive results. It's all about psychology @spikes. Bull markets pump maniac psychology while bear markets extend pessimistic psychology. The market doesn't work on just two participants, it needs the crowd to function. If the crowd's psychology is negative you get a sellers haven and vice versa.
Thus the simple principle:
"In bull markets good news is celebrate, bad news is bought. In bear markets good news is sold, bad news is sold."
But if you are a smart investor the sold good news in a bear is your holy grail value playground.
The opposite applies in a maniac bull market. You keep on selling into the bull as you expect to buy the expected bear.
On a normal timeframe the golden handcuff list (centum, equity and britam) would be in my radar of accumulation. But the global market headwinds are holding me back. Once the global market hiccups vanish I'll also accumulate heavily on stocks build on strong metrics but currently undervalued . If you are waiting for the bottom of the market, you may still catch it. BUT catching the bottom will not necessarily benefit you. BECAUSE some stocks will be good if investments yet others will still be expensive at the bottom. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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sparkly wrote:Spikes wrote:hisah wrote:Spikes wrote:Sam_Kibs wrote:littledove wrote:muandiwambeu wrote:Financials have not stoke the fire to bring forth enough heat for bulls to show up. Its still cold. Watching safcom fight the bear single handedly. I wonder who will win. all others have given up to fate and anything goes past safcom. its true the market has failed to get excited by good results, the top banks have set pace for the market,watch out the bear is planning a serious assault!!! Am also thinking that the bear is having lunch in town before serious Massacre begins. What astonishes me is that the bear is not afraid of impressive results. It's all about psychology @spikes. Bull markets pump maniac psychology while bear markets extend pessimistic psychology. The market doesn't work on just two participants, it needs the crowd to function. If the crowd's psychology is negative you get a sellers haven and vice versa.
Thus the simple principle:
"In bull markets good news is celebrate, bad news is bought. In bear markets good news is sold, bad news is sold."
But if you are a smart investor the sold good news in a bear is your holy grail value playground.
The opposite applies in a maniac bull market. You keep on selling into the bull as you expect to buy the expected bear.
On a normal timeframe the golden handcuff list (centum, equity and britam) would be in my radar of accumulation. But the global market headwinds are holding me back. Once the global market hiccups vanish I'll also accumulate heavily on stocks build on strong metrics but currently undervalued . If you are waiting for the bottom of the market, you may still catch it. BUT catching the bottom will not necessarily benefit you. BECAUSE some stocks will be good if investments yet others will still be expensive at the bottom. a market bottom is not necessarily your choice stocks bottom since you can't buy the whole market "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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2015 was tough, 2016 seems tougher... Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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Boris Boyka wrote:2015 was tough, 2016 seems tougher... it will largely depend on what you hold in the nse you can't rule out some being wiped out of the scene "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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2016 will be far much better than 2015. A weaker global USD will ease the pressure on the shilling which will make governor Njoroge a bit dovish, a plus for the sold out NSE. #BearsBeWarned @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,220 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:2016 will be far much better than 2015.
A weaker global USD will ease the pressure on the shilling which will make governor Njoroge a bit dovish, a plus for the sold out NSE.
#BearsBeWarned Only thing standing in our way is political risk due to Elections next year. Ofcourse corruption and huge debt levels vs kibaki days will also weigh in. @SufficientlyP
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