Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
|
Highly unlikely to have sold TZ and Lubumbashi and underwhelm.
EPS forecast of 1.52 per share excluding discontinued operations.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
|
Spikes wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:Profit taking kicks in. I hope it goes back to sub-10. And even 8/-. now you talk like someone who has sold part of his shamba. @Othello @miennyama - I am a BUYER of KK. I am very positive on KK for reasons I have articulated many times. Management. Low(er) oil prices. Lower debt. New LPG plant. New lubricant plant/investment. Sale of lousy businesses in TZ. Reduction of low-margin business. Debt - The recent interview Ohana gave re: repayment of debt in 3 months was the inflection point. The savings and 'strength' from being debt-free are huge when going into an election year. Kestrel estimated over 1/- EPS for FY 2015 but I am more excited by 2016. Ohana - Like Segman he has started pushing info out there. Is there a groom waiting in the wings? In the space of 2 weeks: TZ sale announcement, Debt reduction, LPG plant. And then in 2 weeks FY 2015 plus an indication of the "Future Outlook" The AGM is usually 6-10 weeks later when we will be told more about 1Q 2016. 1H 2016 should be out in Aug/Sep. I think there will be a rally upon realization that the profit growth/increase is real. Consummation of a sale of KK: Post-election 2018. *Of course, things could go wrong. Burundi could explode. Kenya could see PEV2018. Oil prices could jump back to $80. Taxes increased. Etc* issued shares 1.47b meaning the profit needs to be above this to get above 1bob eps which is very possible Agreed eps of 1 very achievable, I'm even thinking 1.2- 1.3 You will be astonished by a report less than market expectations. That is when I'll trail in at 8.00 kes per share. Stay tuned! you are missing the point, going back to 8 doesn't take away the positive steps the company has taken towards profitability "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
|
Spikes wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:Profit taking kicks in. I hope it goes back to sub-10. And even 8/-. now you talk like someone who has sold part of his shamba. @Othello @miennyama - I am a BUYER of KK. I am very positive on KK for reasons I have articulated many times. Management. Low(er) oil prices. Lower debt. New LPG plant. New lubricant plant/investment. Sale of lousy businesses in TZ. Reduction of low-margin business. Debt - The recent interview Ohana gave re: repayment of debt in 3 months was the inflection point. The savings and 'strength' from being debt-free are huge when going into an election year. Kestrel estimated over 1/- EPS for FY 2015 but I am more excited by 2016. Ohana - Like Segman he has started pushing info out there. Is there a groom waiting in the wings? In the space of 2 weeks: TZ sale announcement, Debt reduction, LPG plant. And then in 2 weeks FY 2015 plus an indication of the "Future Outlook" The AGM is usually 6-10 weeks later when we will be told more about 1Q 2016. 1H 2016 should be out in Aug/Sep. I think there will be a rally upon realization that the profit growth/increase is real. Consummation of a sale of KK: Post-election 2018. *Of course, things could go wrong. Burundi could explode. Kenya could see PEV2018. Oil prices could jump back to $80. Taxes increased. Etc* issued shares 1.47b meaning the profit needs to be above this to get above 1bob eps which is very possible Agreed eps of 1 very achievable, I'm even thinking 1.2- 1.3 You will be astonished by a report less than market expectations. That is when I'll trail in at 8.00 kes per share. Stay tuned! you are missing the point, going back to 8 doesn't take away the positive steps the company has taken towards profitability .then why are you willing to trail it if it has not met your expectations? ? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
|
Kausha wrote:Highly unlikely to have sold TZ and Lubumbashi and underwhelm.
EPS forecast of 1.52 per share excluding discontinued operations. this man ohana has really kept secret the selling of tz and congo businesses until conclusion,if this is anything to go by,any takeover or partnership can only be known at approval stages if not final. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,140 Location: Nairobi
|
mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:Profit taking kicks in. I hope it goes back to sub-10. And even 8/-. now you talk like someone who has sold part of his shamba. @Othello @miennyama - I am a BUYER of KK. I am very positive on KK for reasons I have articulated many times. Management. Low(er) oil prices. Lower debt. New LPG plant. New lubricant plant/investment. Sale of lousy businesses in TZ. Reduction of low-margin business. Debt - The recent interview Ohana gave re: repayment of debt in 3 months was the inflection point. The savings and 'strength' from being debt-free are huge when going into an election year. Kestrel estimated over 1/- EPS for FY 2015 but I am more excited by 2016. Ohana - Like Segman he has started pushing info out there. Is there a groom waiting in the wings? In the space of 2 weeks: TZ sale announcement, Debt reduction, LPG plant. And then in 2 weeks FY 2015 plus an indication of the "Future Outlook" The AGM is usually 6-10 weeks later when we will be told more about 1Q 2016. 1H 2016 should be out in Aug/Sep. I think there will be a rally upon realization that the profit growth/increase is real. Consummation of a sale of KK: Post-election 2018. *Of course, things could go wrong. Burundi could explode. Kenya could see PEV2018. Oil prices could jump back to $80. Taxes increased. Etc* issued shares 1.47b meaning the profit needs to be above this to get above 1bob eps which is very possible Agreed eps of 1 very achievable, I'm even thinking 1.2- 1.3 You will be astonished by a report less than market expectations. That is when I'll trail in at 8.00 kes per share. Stay tuned! you are missing the point, going back to 8 doesn't take away the positive steps the company has taken towards profitability .then why are you willing to trail it if it has not met your expectations? ? Bingo. I don't mind a lower price. My eye is on PAT growth. I am buying the future not the past. And a lower price makes it even sweeter. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,318
|
mlennyma wrote:Spikes wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:Profit taking kicks in. I hope it goes back to sub-10. And even 8/-. now you talk like someone who has sold part of his shamba. @Othello @miennyama - I am a BUYER of KK. I am very positive on KK for reasons I have articulated many times. Management. Low(er) oil prices. Lower debt. New LPG plant. New lubricant plant/investment. Sale of lousy businesses in TZ. Reduction of low-margin business. Debt - The recent interview Ohana gave re: repayment of debt in 3 months was the inflection point. The savings and 'strength' from being debt-free are huge when going into an election year. Kestrel estimated over 1/- EPS for FY 2015 but I am more excited by 2016. Ohana - Like Segman he has started pushing info out there. Is there a groom waiting in the wings? In the space of 2 weeks: TZ sale announcement, Debt reduction, LPG plant. And then in 2 weeks FY 2015 plus an indication of the "Future Outlook" The AGM is usually 6-10 weeks later when we will be told more about 1Q 2016. 1H 2016 should be out in Aug/Sep. I think there will be a rally upon realization that the profit growth/increase is real. Consummation of a sale of KK: Post-election 2018. *Of course, things could go wrong. Burundi could explode. Kenya could see PEV2018. Oil prices could jump back to $80. Taxes increased. Etc* issued shares 1.47b meaning the profit needs to be above this to get above 1bob eps which is very possible Agreed eps of 1 very achievable, I'm even thinking 1.2- 1.3 You will be astonished by a report less than market expectations. That is when I'll trail in at 8.00 kes per share. Stay tuned! you are missing the point, going back to 8 doesn't take away the positive steps the company has taken towards profitability  Some of us are very old here and still seeing things like newcomers. We know how market reacts. When price is good some will tend to sell quickly to make a kill for speculative uncertainities, others tend to buy as they deem quality is good at that current price, the supply may be higher than demand hence the reason climbing price stalls for few days until the supply is wiped out.The demand still there with helddown supply making a similar spike in price. This pushes the price higher than earlier. There comes a time when romourmill goes round that results are good and no more selling but buying and a marathon start to harvest dividends . 
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
|
Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When? anytime even tomorrow depending on the top mans moods "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/11/2014 Posts: 228 Location: Nairobi
|
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,318
|
mlennyma wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When? anytime even tomorrow depending on the top mans moods March through April. Dividend paid in April or May.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
|
Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When? anytime even tomorrow depending on the top mans moods March through April. Dividend paid in April or May. I look at my 28% paper gains for shares bought just in Dec 2015 and i feel very happy. I now wondering what will be a good price to buy more ? @mlennyma, @Aguytrying, what would be a good price to buy more? Previously i was buying at below 8.50 but i guess i need to increase entry price now
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,318
|
heri wrote:Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When? anytime even tomorrow depending on the top mans moods March through April. Dividend paid in April or May. I look at my 28% paper gains for shares bought just in Dec 2015 and i feel very happy. I now wondering what will be a good price to buy more ? @mlennyma, @Aguytrying, what would be a good price to buy more? Previously i was buying at below 8.50 but i guess i need to increase entry price now For what reason are you buying 1. Capital gains? 2. super dividends and bonuses? I have even decided to dip into Barclays as they pay good dividend at current price. If I buy 30,000 shares, then I can get 30,000Kes dividend, plus a margin on capital gain (30000*12.5=375000) will be required to buy shares by now.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
|
heri wrote:Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When? anytime even tomorrow depending on the top mans moods March through April. Dividend paid in April or May. I look at my 28% paper gains for shares bought just in Dec 2015 and i feel very happy. I now wondering what will be a good price to buy more ? @mlennyma, @Aguytrying, what would be a good price to buy more? Previously i was buying at below 8.50 but i guess i need to increase entry price now As a matter of principle, and this dates back a few years, I only buy below 9.00. If push comes to shove 9.50 max. But I have a critical mass so only below 9 can't tempt me. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
|
heri wrote:Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When? anytime even tomorrow depending on the top mans moods March through April. Dividend paid in April or May. I look at my 28% paper gains for shares bought just in Dec 2015 and i feel very happy. I now wondering what will be a good price to buy more ? @mlennyma, @Aguytrying, what would be a good price to buy more? Previously i was buying at below 8.50 but i guess i need to increase entry price now I have a policy of buying shares at a price lower than the price of the ones I hold so below 8 I will start buying given that Kk is also a good dividend payer and now promising massive capital gains in future ,apart from what pple tell you pls develop your buying policy "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,140 Location: Nairobi
|
mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When? anytime even tomorrow depending on the top mans moods March through April. Dividend paid in April or May. I look at my 28% paper gains for shares bought just in Dec 2015 and i feel very happy. I now wondering what will be a good price to buy more ? @mlennyma, @Aguytrying, what would be a good price to buy more? Previously i was buying at below 8.50 but i guess i need to increase entry price now I have a policy of buying shares at a price lower than the price of the ones I hold so below 8 I will start buying given that Kk is also a good dividend payer and now promising massive capital gains in future ,apart from what pple tell you pls develop your buying policy So say you bought BAT at 300 a few years ago... And they were offered to you at 400 today... What would you do? Or Safaricom which were 4/- not so long ago and were available to you at 5/- today? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
|
VituVingiSana wrote:mlennyma wrote:heri wrote:Realtreaty wrote:mlennyma wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When? anytime even tomorrow depending on the top mans moods March through April. Dividend paid in April or May. I look at my 28% paper gains for shares bought just in Dec 2015 and i feel very happy. I now wondering what will be a good price to buy more ? @mlennyma, @Aguytrying, what would be a good price to buy more? Previously i was buying at below 8.50 but i guess i need to increase entry price now I have a policy of buying shares at a price lower than the price of the ones I hold so below 8 I will start buying given that Kk is also a good dividend payer and now promising massive capital gains in future ,apart from what pple tell you pls develop your buying policy So say you bought BAT at 300 a few years ago... And they were offered to you at 400 today... What would you do? Or Safaricom which were 4/- not so long ago and were available to you at 5/- today? good question, i will rethink my strategy "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
!!!Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When?
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
Cde Monomotapa wrote:!!!Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When?
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:!!!Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When?
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
!!! Iko samak! Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:!!!Cde Monomotapa wrote:Results? When?
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|