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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
Rank: Member Joined: 7/20/2012 Posts: 141
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,140 Location: Nairobi
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 *Please help KK to become debt-free by filling up at KK. KQ & friends to pay cash lest they collapse. Thank You. Come Again.* KQ lost money in 2012. GoK controlled firm. Continued losing money in 2013, 2014, 2015... I expect a loss for FY 2015-16. Probably even 2016-17. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and still losing money. Continued entering losing hedges. Begging for a bailout. Needs a Rights Issue. @VVS sold out of KQ. KK lost money in 2012. Private firm. Turned around & now very profitable. 2016 expected to be profitable. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and now making money. Stopped hedging & made more money. Continued expanding in profitable markets. Dumped unprofitable subsidiaries. @VVS deployed funds from sale of KQ into KK. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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VituVingiSana wrote: *Please help KK to become debt-free by filling up at KK. KQ & friends to pay cash lest they collapse. Thank You. Come Again.* KQ lost money in 2012. GoK controlled firm. Continued losing money in 2013, 2014, 2015... I expect a loss for FY 2015-16. Probably even 2016-17. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and still losing money. Continued entering losing hedges. Begging for a bailout. Needs a Rights Issue. @VVS sold out of KQ. KK lost money in 2012. Private firm. Turned around & now very profitable. 2016 expected to be profitable. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and now making money. Stopped hedging & made more money. Continued expanding in profitable markets. Dumped unprofitable subsidiaries. @VVS deployed funds from sale of KQ into KK. @vvs wins, unfortunately, after disparaging the exchange his stock stagnates  On the flip, what was that principle of good news before results? Trouble... KK must be an operational mess! 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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does it mean kenol has grown its market share to 15-16 % in 2015?we will not work for the banks hata sisi tuko na tumbo ya kukula pesa "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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If i was the chairman of the board i would propose a 1 for 20 bonus and 30cts dividend to reward those who stood by me when i was drowning. at close of business today nobody was willing to sell at 10.20 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,140 Location: Nairobi
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10.25 has printed. The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news. Projects to fund: 1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn 2) New Office Building: 1.5bn KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn. So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016? *Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits* Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/1/2014 Posts: 910 Location: sky
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VituVingiSana wrote:10.25 has printed.
The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news.
Projects to fund:
1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn
2) New Office Building: 1.5bn
KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn.
So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016?
*Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits*
Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-25/kenolkobil-of-kenya-to-clear-debt-after-exiting-two-countries"Nairobi-based Standard Investment Bank said in a research note it expects “the sale could constitute a material figure in cash flows received as well as gains on the assets disposal.” There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote: *Please help KK to become debt-free by filling up at KK. KQ & friends to pay cash lest they collapse. Thank You. Come Again.* KQ lost money in 2012. GoK controlled firm. Continued losing money in 2013, 2014, 2015... I expect a loss for FY 2015-16. Probably even 2016-17. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and still losing money. Continued entering losing hedges. Begging for a bailout. Needs a Rights Issue. @VVS sold out of KQ. KK lost money in 2012. Private firm. Turned around & now very profitable. 2016 expected to be profitable. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and now making money. Stopped hedging & made more money. Continued expanding in profitable markets. Dumped unprofitable subsidiaries. @VVS deployed funds from sale of KQ into KK. This has been my argument all along, Im sure people think i just hate gava firms... Add Mumias, Uchumi to that list. Losses with no end and nobody "cares". Warren Buffet is a genius management, management, management. If KK will be Debt free by mid 2016. With the same man at the helm, and no bad luck. Where do you think the company and the stock will be in 2017 going forwards? Rubbing my hands with glee. @CDE. so would you rather a stock that stagnates over a 4 year period (KK). Or a stock that loses >80% of its value (KQ 50 - 4.50) The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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i expect the lubricant deal to start giving returns this year with uncontrolled margins fortunately fuel business is an all time business it will still thrive in politics environment and only a civil war can shake it much "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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littledove wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:10.25 has printed.
The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news.
Projects to fund:
1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn
2) New Office Building: 1.5bn
KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn.
So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016?
*Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits*
Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-25/kenolkobil-of-kenya-to-clear-debt-after-exiting-two-countries"Nairobi-based Standard Investment Bank said in a research note it expects “the sale could constitute a material figure in cash flows received as well as gains on the assets disposal.” Even in the business daily yesterday he said they fetched "great prices". This most likely means selling at a profit. and the reason for selling all but confirms this. Because the guys who tax evade would be more than happy to acqiure those assests.... They are not being sold coz they are bad or loss making, it s not throw away. 2 years to complete the deal, thats interesting. Could this deal be the reason behind the RAlly?? Were similar with Ohana... I also do not like working for banks and I'm debt free  The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Quote:@CDE. so would you rather a stock that stagnates over a 4 year period (KK). Or a stock that loses >80% of its value (KQ 50 - 4.50) Vvs has answered that extensively that his foresight is forever shattered!! KK. Moves synonymous to how Berkshire moved stealthily out of textile or just an asset flipper like SCBK. Let's see the results. Remember, buy low, sell high
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:10.25 has printed.
The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news.
Projects to fund:
1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn
2) New Office Building: 1.5bn
KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn.
So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016?
*Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits*
Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target? The Shs2.8 billion debt could be after the sale of the TZ congo assets.... Whis would make the EPs calculations higher, so your probably right. Lets stick with EPS of 2.0, remember i mentioned this EPS not too long ago. at least 30.00 per share. The most profitable fuel marketer in kenya, debt free, attractive assets... The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Quote:@CDE. so would you rather a stock that stagnates over a 4 year period (KK). Or a stock that loses >80% of its value (KQ 50 - 4.50) Vvs has answered that extensively that his foresight is forever shattered!! KK. Moves synonymous to how Berkshire moved stealthily out of textile or just an asset flipper like SCBK. Let's see the results. Remember, buy low, sell high I want to hear it from you. I do not know what he said and Your the one defending KQ vs KK. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Aguytrying wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Quote:@CDE. so would you rather a stock that stagnates over a 4 year period (KK). Or a stock that loses >80% of its value (KQ 50 - 4.50) Vvs has answered that extensively that his foresight is forever shattered!! KK. Moves synonymous to how Berkshire moved stealthily out of textile or just an asset flipper like SCBK. Let's see the results. Remember, buy low, sell high I want to hear it from you. I do not know what he said and Your the one defending KQ vs KK. We are all learning from vvs now. nkt! Ask vvs!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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I don't understand, si there other shares in the market why only these two choices unless your money is already tied in there in which case you have no choices to make but to bind time
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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streetwise wrote:I don't understand, si there other shares in the market why only these two choices unless your money is already tied in there in which case you have no choices to make but to bind time You know when you get burnt, you look for your friends who are not burning to disturb them The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mlennyma wrote:If i was the chairman of the board i would propose a 1 for 20 bonus and 30cts dividend to reward those who stood by me when i was drowning. at close of business today nobody was willing to sell at 10.20 I cant remember the last time we could say that about KK. No supply! its been unheard of for 4 -5 years! BTW this time the bus may have left the station for good, unless the claws of the bear are too strong. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Aguytrying wrote:streetwise wrote:I don't understand, si there other shares in the market why only these two choices unless your money is already tied in there in which case you have no choices to make but to bind time You know when you get burnt, you look for your friends who are not burning to disturb them Signed: vvs
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:If i was the chairman of the board i would propose a 1 for 20 bonus and 30cts dividend to reward those who stood by me when i was drowning. at close of business today nobody was willing to sell at 10.20 I cant remember the last time we could say that about KK. No supply! its been unheard of for 4 -5 years! BTW this time the bus may have left the station for good, unless the claws of the bear are too strong. Kk share could not gain much for the last 2 years because informed investors were still doubting their recovery plans,this left wanjikus speculating on small gains,now the recovery plan is confirmed lets wait and see "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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mlennyma wrote:Aguytrying wrote:mlennyma wrote:If i was the chairman of the board i would propose a 1 for 20 bonus and 30cts dividend to reward those who stood by me when i was drowning. at close of business today nobody was willing to sell at 10.20 I cant remember the last time we could say that about KK. No supply! its been unheard of for 4 -5 years! BTW this time the bus may have left the station for good, unless the claws of the bear are too strong. Kk share could not gain much for the last 2 years because informed investors were still doubting their recovery plans,this left wanjikus speculating on small gains,now the recovery plan is confirmed lets wait and see Ona!! Imesemekana, kumbe ni kweli.. all ready to raid the company!
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