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The KenolKobil 2015 pendulum
h2s
#361 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 12:43:56 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/20/2012
Posts: 141
VituVingiSana
#362 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 1:39:31 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi

Applause Applause Applause
*Please help KK to become debt-free by filling up at KK. KQ & friends to pay cash lest they collapse. Thank You. Come Again.*

KQ lost money in 2012. GoK controlled firm. Continued losing money in 2013, 2014, 2015... I expect a loss for FY 2015-16. Probably even 2016-17. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and still losing money. Continued entering losing hedges. Begging for a bailout. Needs a Rights Issue. @VVS sold out of KQ.

KK lost money in 2012. Private firm. Turned around & now very profitable. 2016 expected to be profitable. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and now making money. Stopped hedging & made more money. Continued expanding in profitable markets. Dumped unprofitable subsidiaries. @VVS deployed funds from sale of KQ into KK.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#363 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 1:56:21 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
VituVingiSana wrote:

Applause Applause Applause
*Please help KK to become debt-free by filling up at KK. KQ & friends to pay cash lest they collapse. Thank You. Come Again.*

KQ lost money in 2012. GoK controlled firm. Continued losing money in 2013, 2014, 2015... I expect a loss for FY 2015-16. Probably even 2016-17. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and still losing money. Continued entering losing hedges. Begging for a bailout. Needs a Rights Issue. @VVS sold out of KQ.

KK lost money in 2012. Private firm. Turned around & now very profitable. 2016 expected to be profitable. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and now making money. Stopped hedging & made more money. Continued expanding in profitable markets. Dumped unprofitable subsidiaries. @VVS deployed funds from sale of KQ into KK.


Applause Applause @vvs wins, unfortunately, after disparaging the exchange his stock stagnates Sad On the flip, what was that principle of good news before results? Trouble... KK must be an operational mess! Laughing out loudly
mlennyma
#364 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 2:31:04 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi

does it mean kenol has grown its market share to 15-16 % in 2015?we will not work for the banks hata sisi tuko na tumbo ya kukula pesaApplause
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
mlennyma
#365 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 2:49:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
If i was the chairman of the board i would propose a 1 for 20 bonus and 30cts dividend to reward those who stood by me when i was drowning. at close of business today nobody was willing to sell at 10.20Applause
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#366 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 3:31:09 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,347
Location: Nairobi
10.25 has printed.
The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news.

Projects to fund:
1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn
2) New Office Building: 1.5bn

KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn.

So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016?
*Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits*

Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
littledove
#367 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 4:16:14 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
VituVingiSana wrote:
10.25 has printed.
The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news.

Projects to fund:
1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn
2) New Office Building: 1.5bn

KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn.

So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016?
*Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits*

Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target?


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-25/kenolkobil-of-kenya-to-clear-debt-after-exiting-two-countries

"Nairobi-based Standard Investment Bank said in a research note it expects “the sale could constitute a material figure in cash flows received as well as gains on the assets disposal.”
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
Aguytrying
#368 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 4:28:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:

Applause Applause Applause
*Please help KK to become debt-free by filling up at KK. KQ & friends to pay cash lest they collapse. Thank You. Come Again.*

KQ lost money in 2012. GoK controlled firm. Continued losing money in 2013, 2014, 2015... I expect a loss for FY 2015-16. Probably even 2016-17. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and still losing money. Continued entering losing hedges. Begging for a bailout. Needs a Rights Issue. @VVS sold out of KQ.

KK lost money in 2012. Private firm. Turned around & now very profitable. 2016 expected to be profitable. Fuel/Oil prices dropped and now making money. Stopped hedging & made more money. Continued expanding in profitable markets. Dumped unprofitable subsidiaries. @VVS deployed funds from sale of KQ into KK.



Applause Applause Applause This has been my argument all along, Im sure people think i just hate gava firms... Add Mumias, Uchumi to that list. Losses with no end and nobody "cares". Warren Buffet is a genius management, management, management. If KK will be Debt free by mid 2016. With the same man at the helm, and no bad luck. Where do you think the company and the stock will be in 2017 going forwards? Rubbing my hands with glee.

@CDE. so would you rather a stock that stagnates over a 4 year period (KK). Or a stock that loses >80% of its value (KQ 50 - 4.50)
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
mlennyma
#369 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 4:36:23 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi

i expect the lubricant deal to start giving returns this year with uncontrolled margins fortunately fuel business is an all time business it will still thrive in politics environment and only a civil war can shake it much
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#370 Posted : Thursday, February 25, 2016 4:40:19 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
littledove wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
10.25 has printed.
The 'revelation' that KK can pay off all its debt by June 2016 is very good news.

Projects to fund:
1) BP/Castrol plant 500mn
2) New Office Building: 1.5bn

KK has $28mn in debt [says Ohana]. Let's make a huge assumption it's $10mn [anyone with more info? The Annual Report doesn't have enough detail] came from sale of assets & inventories in TZ and DRC so net debt is $18mn.

So if KK can make $6mn cash per month (18/3) that's PBT [assuming cash = profits] of 600mn/month x 12 months = 7.2bn x 70% (tax) = 5bn ... Are talking of EPS KES 3/share in 2016?
*Note that the reduction is debt is also helped by the REDUCTION in the cost of inventory thanks to low(er) fuel prices not just profits*

Let me dial down my enthusiasm. Let's say KK makes just 2/- in 2016. Elections in 2017. Let's stick with 2/- for 2017. What would it be worth in 2018 as a Takeover Target?


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-25/kenolkobil-of-kenya-to-clear-debt-after-exiting-two-countries

"Nairobi-based Standard Investment Bank said in a research note it expects “the sale could constitute a material figure in cash flows received as well as gains on the assets disposal.”


Even in the business daily yesterday he said they fetched "great prices". This most likely means selling at a profit. and the reason for selling all but confirms this. Because the guys who tax evade would be more than happy to acqiure those assests.... They are not being sold coz they are bad or loss making, it s not throw away. 2 years to complete the deal, thats interesting. Could this deal be the reason behind the RAlly??

Were similar with Ohana... I also do not like working for banks and I'm debt freesmile
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
161 Pages«<3536373839>»
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