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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Spikes
#1531 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2016 7:19:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Aguytrying wrote:
moneydust wrote:
hisah wrote:
Mpesa bank... Caution... The next market down leg will catch many off-guard!


Pessimism does not hold forever same with optimism
For now, I think we are at the deep end of pessimism and Safaricom so far has held on very well unlike other shares and add to the fact that they will be declaring record breaking profits,i clearly dont see how they will be the trigger for the next level of bearish activity..Unless you want to imply that the share is extremely overvalued


What pe is safcom trading at? Pe of 20. It's extremely overvalued. Extremely.

All this while the likes of kcb are at a pe of 7. It's like the story of an elephant on top of a tree....


When it hits kes 20 per share pe ratio will jump to 25! Watch my lips people. This is likely.
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
mnandii
#1532 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2016 8:06:09 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The noose is getting tighter for individuals and businesses. A pervasive trend toward negative social mood creates incentives to increase control over people.


City Hall plans to charge business permits based on trade volumes

link

KRA now gets powers to act against tax avoiding companies

link

Remember also that withdrawing amounts over 1 Million KES cash is illegal in Kenya.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#1533 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2016 9:57:08 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
The future can be predicted! Those who don't believe so should accept that their tools (and brains) have failed them.

Quote:
Zika - Analyst Warned of "Mosquito-Borne Viruses" Moving North

GAINESVILLE, Ga., Feb. 8, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Article after article tells us that no one really saw the Zika virus coming. But that's simply not true. Landmark research from the Socionomics Institute presented compelling evidence that "mosquito-borne viruses endemic to the tropics," such as Chikungunya and dengue fever, were expanding their range. Their 2009-2015 studies, headed up by Senior Researcher Alan Hall, also showed clearly how major epidemics over the past several hundred years –ranging from London cholera, Spanish flu, polio, HIV/AIDS, SARS, H1N1 flu to Ebola – all shared one common feature: they erupted after large, extended declines in stock prices.

Do stock market declines make people sick? Socionomists don't think so. Instead, they think benchmark stock indexes indicate trends in social psychology. When people become pessimistic and fearful, they sell stocks. Then, they cut back on economic activity. Research shows that both changes in the stock market and changes in the economy precede changes in public health. When societies get depressed, they are more likely to get sick.


link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#1534 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2016 10:04:35 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


The Socionomic Theory of Finance
An Alternative to EMH and a Foundation for Technical Analysis

In this video, recorded at the 2014 International Federation of Technical Analysts Conference in London, Robert Prechter presents his most comprehensive and concise presentation of socionomics thus far.

Prechter challenges you to consider a radical new perspective on social and financial causality. The perspective will enable you to anticipate, understand and act on developing social trends that nearly all other investors and forecasters fail to see coming.

Format: Video | 53 minutes + 17-minute bonus feature
Presented By: Robert Prechter
Level: Intermediate

link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
mnandii
#1535 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2016 10:24:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Pessimism, fear and uncertainty create economic conditions that increase stress and disrupt routines, sanitation, households, social relationships, and, ultimately, compromise human immunity.

If Zika were Brazil’s only threat today, it would be easier to dismiss this theory. But the rising susceptibility is also evident in the concurrent epidemic of microcephaly, and in the increasing incidence of dengue, chikungunya and the paralyzing nervous disorder, Guillain-Barre syndrome. And while the country is mired in its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and impeachment proceedings are underway against President Dilma Rousseff, lax hygiene has brewed a toxic stew of viral and bacterial pathogens in Rio de Janiero’s Summer Olympics water venues. It is quite reasonable to propose that changes in social psychology, or social mood, are an important causal mechanism for elevation and reduction in public health risk. Click here to see historical charts that demonstrate this effect.

link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
lochaz-index
#1536 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2016 12:55:07 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Panic phase coming up globally.

Chinese stock markets (currently on holiday) were almost 50% down since their June 2015 highs, they will resume with a thud. Bankruptcies from overcapacity are yet to hit home.

Euro zone stocks are largely in bear territory with serious bank run undercurrents sweeping all over the place from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany (Deutsche), Switzerland (credit suisse) etc.

Japan's nikkei is currently getting pulverised by flight to safety. So far NIRP is turning out to be hangman's noose for the economy.

For the US, all of S&P, nasdaq and Dow are all in correction territory and quickly sliding towards bear zone with acres to fall.

All these developments coupled with economic problems carried over and exacerbated since GFC means it will only take a single black swan event( they are currently too many to list) to induce real panic in equities.

Whether or not KE prints rosy headlines it won't matter, contagion will take over.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Spikes
#1537 Posted : Tuesday, February 09, 2016 12:59:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
lochaz-index wrote:
Panic phase coming up globally.

Chinese stock markets (currently on holiday) were almost 50% down since their June 2015 highs, they will resume with a thud. Bankruptcies from overcapacity are yet to hit home.

Euro zone stocks are largely in bear territory with serious bank run undercurrents sweeping all over the place from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany (Deutsche), Switzerland (credit suisse) etc.

Japan's nikkei is currently getting pulverised by flight to safety. So far NIRP is turning out to be hangman's noose for the economy.

For the US, all of S&P, nasdaq and Dow are all in correction territory and quickly sliding towards bear zone with acres to fall.

All these developments coupled with economic problems carried over and exacerbated since GFC means it will only take a single black swan event( they are currently too many to list) to induce real panic in equities.

Whether or not KE prints rosy headlines it won't matter, contagion will take over.


Well said crusaders of doomsday!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
Spikes
#1538 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2016 11:03:42 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Spikes wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Panic phase coming up globally.

Chinese stock markets (currently on holiday) were almost 50% down since their June 2015 highs, they will resume with a thud. Bankruptcies from overcapacity are yet to hit home.

Euro zone stocks are largely in bear territory with serious bank run undercurrents sweeping all over the place from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany (Deutsche), Switzerland (credit suisse) etc.

Japan's nikkei is currently getting pulverised by flight to safety. So far NIRP is turning out to be hangman's noose for the economy.

For the US, all of S&P, nasdaq and Dow are all in correction territory and quickly sliding towards bear zone with acres to fall.

All these developments coupled with economic problems carried over and exacerbated since GFC means it will only take a single black swan event( they are currently too many to list) to induce real panic in equities.

Whether or not KE prints rosy headlines it won't matter, contagion will take over.


Well said crusaders of doomsday!


Most folks are greedily waiting NSE to bottom out! You will be shocked to see a new high level as days pass. People have money just making noise, bleating waiting for the next slide. Mtangoja sana!
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
snipermnoma
#1539 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2016 11:22:57 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
Spikes wrote:
Spikes wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
Panic phase coming up globally.

Chinese stock markets (currently on holiday) were almost 50% down since their June 2015 highs, they will resume with a thud. Bankruptcies from overcapacity are yet to hit home.

Euro zone stocks are largely in bear territory with serious bank run undercurrents sweeping all over the place from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Germany (Deutsche), Switzerland (credit suisse) etc.

Japan's nikkei is currently getting pulverised by flight to safety. So far NIRP is turning out to be hangman's noose for the economy.

For the US, all of S&P, nasdaq and Dow are all in correction territory and quickly sliding towards bear zone with acres to fall.

All these developments coupled with economic problems carried over and exacerbated since GFC means it will only take a single black swan event( they are currently too many to list) to induce real panic in equities.

Whether or not KE prints rosy headlines it won't matter, contagion will take over.


Well said crusaders of doomsday!


Most folks are greedily waiting NSE to bottom out! You will be shocked to see a new high level as days pass. People have money just making noise, bleating waiting for the next slide. Mtangoja sana!


We all have a different risk threshold. So when the bear is upon us expect the majority to sit it out. Very few see this as a time to buy. Those who want to buy or sell or watch should do so. Then in the coming weeks and months the market will make it clear who made the best decision. Hindsight is always 20/20, but at the end of the day, we all have to own the decisions we make.
hisah
#1540 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2016 12:02:17 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Adjectives have started checking in. Perfect. Bearish proponents have a new name; crusaders of doomsday.

Nice fight coming up between doomsday crusaders vs optimists.

Meanwhile mpesa bank is following the path of least resistance...

The looming gok debt bomb will nuke the market. This is the main reason Zacchaeus is busy grabbing tax. When Zacchaeus behaves this way the markets always go to sleep.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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